PORTLAND, Ore. — President Biden declared Saturday that the upcoming midterms are “the most important off-year election” the country has had since “[Franklin D.] Roosevelt’s time.” On Tuesday, discussing abortion rights, he upped the ante, proclaiming, “We’re only 22 days away from the most consequential election in our history.”
Yet Biden has not held a campaign rally since before Labor Day. He has largely shied away from appearing with candidates in the most competitive races, amid worries he will drag them down with his low approval ratings. And his most frequent campaign activity is raising money from high-dollar donors with no television cameras or photographers present.
The gap between his declaration that Nov. 8 is a pivotal moment in American history and a campaign schedule that hardly reflects that urgency is matched by other top Democrats who have also been scarce on the campaign trail. A big reason: From former president Bill Clinton to Vice President Harris to former nominee Hillary Clinton, few Democratic heavyweights are in demand in the political climate today.
“It shows that a lot of these campaigns are smart and they know how to read the polls and the history books,” said Democratic strategist Lis Smith, who was a senior adviser for Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign. “If you are from the party in power in the midterms, it is not all that helpful for you to nationalize your race.”
Some lower-profile Democrats, like progressive favorite Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and centrist stalwart Sen. Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, have been better able to successfully target specific constituencies, she added. “That is why you have seen campaign’s like Tim Ryan’s stiff-arm Joe Biden but embrace Joe Manchin III,” Smith said. “They are generating local news, they are exciting the base.” Rep. Tim Ryan is the Democratic Senate candidate in Ohio.
This Democratic dynamic contrasts sharply with the landscape on the Republican side. Republican stars such as Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia and former governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina have crisscrossed the country for Republican House and Senate hopefuls, especially those in tight or pivotal races.
Biden has vigorously defended the pace of his political activity, insisting Thursday that he has been an active surrogate and saying he has more stops planned in the days ahead. Asked by a reporter why he has not campaign with more candidates, Biden responded, “That is not true. There have been 15. Count, kid, count.”
Asked if he would travel to Nevada or Georgia, which host two of the most Senate races, Biden did not give a direct answer, saying there are about “16 to 18 requests” for him to campaign across the country, and his plans were still being finalized.
But he said he was optimistic the Democrats would keep control of the Senate, which is now split 50-50 between the two parties, with Harris casting tiebreaking votes. “I think so,” Biden said while picking up sandwiches at Primanti Bros. with Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman. “It ain’t over til it’s over.”
But the limited nature of his events was illustrated by his Thursday schedule. Biden appeared at an event in Pittsburgh, but it was an official visit to Fern Hollow Bridge focused on touting his infrastructure package rather than exalting the qualities of such candidates as Fetterman, who appeared with him.
Biden took his usual shot at Republicans who called the infrastructure law “socialism” but, he said, are now requesting funds from that very same law, adding, “I’ve got to say, I was surprised to see there are so many socialists in the Republican caucus.” But he also said he was “truly grateful” for the Republicans who supported the bipartisan law and spent most of his remarks describing why the legislation was good for America.
Biden looked out at a relatively small crowd. There were 63 white chairs facing him, many of them marked “reserved” and filled with a collection of local and state politicos, union officials and other supporters, and outnumbered by the large contingent of media. The event took place in a cordoned-off part of Pittsburgh, half a mile down a barricaded road that was closed to the public.
Biden appeared to know many of the guests by name. Just to get close to Biden, guests had to have their names checked off a list, then were ferried to the site where the president would deliver his remarks. Later Thursday, Biden attended a fundraiser for Fetterman, but it was a closed-door event for donors, hardly a raucous campaign rally.
A president’s popularity almost invariably drops by the time the midterm elections roll around, and it is not unusual for the chief executive to walk a tightrope during those campaigns. However, Biden’s campaign activity pales in comparison to that of his predecessors, as both President Donald Trump and President Barack Obama held more than a dozen campaign rallies ahead of the midterm elections during their terms, even though their fortunes had fallen sharply since their elections to office.
David Axelrod, a former top strategist to Obama, said it can be tricky for House or Senate candidates to find nonpolarizing surrogates, ones who will energize supporters but not potential opponents. That appears to be less of a concern for Republicans this year, as deeply conservative figures have been working to charge up their base. “The challenging thing about high-profile surrogates is that you want people who will excite your base without deterring swing voters,” Axelrod said. “That is a hard pass to navigate. Obama can do it.”
Perhaps for that reason, Obama is the notable exception for Democrats this campaign season, hosting campaign rallies in Nevada, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin as candidates clamor for him to visit. One Democratic member of Congress, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss figures in the party, said Obama is “by far” the most popular and in-demand surrogate in battleground states this fall.
Candidates would also like to see Michelle Obama on the campaign trail, the lawmaker said. The former first lady is not expected to appear with Democratic candidates, however, choosing to focus instead on her nonpartisan group, When We All Vote, which seeks to increase voter participation. Smith said Obama is seen as a leader who can cobble together a multiclass, multiethnic and multigeneration coalition.
Other Democratic leaders may have a more targeted appeal. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who caucuses with Democrats, just announced a national tour starting next week that will take him to eight states with at least 19 events before Election Day. Sanders has argued that Democrats should be focusing on economic issues and not solely on abortion rights, and he hopes to electrify voters who care about those issues. But it is not clear how many of the Democratic candidates in the areas he is visiting will appear with him.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), for instance, is going out on the campaign trail in an effort to keep the Democratic majority. A spokesman said Pelosi appeared at political events in 21 cities in the first three weeks of October. An adviser to Warren said she is participating in rallies in Washington and Oregon this week and will make a return visit to Wisconsin for a rally next week. It was announced Thursday that Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, whose profile rose significantly during her presidential run in 2020, would join a campaign event for Fetterman.
When Biden does hit the road, his schedule is often thin. On a recent four-day swing through the West Coast, Biden rarely interacted with voters. He only once left his hotel before 11:30 a.m. and never exceeded two public events a day. He uttered the word “abortion” twice, while never mentioning his policies to cancel student debt or relax marijuana laws, perplexing some Democrats who want to see the president focus on the issues that most animate their base.
His only unscripted interactions on the West Coast were picking up tacos with Rep. Karen Bass of California, who is running for Los Angeles mayor, and Hilda Solis, the former labor secretary, and grabbing ice cream at a Baskin-Robbins with Tina Kotek, the Democratic nominee for Oregon governor.
The swing stood in stark contrast to the aggressive schedule Biden pursued in 2018, when he was one of his party’s most sought-after surrogates, expressing pride that he was welcomed in parts of the country that shunned other Democrats. He argued during the 2020 presidential primary that his campaign activity during the 2018 midterm elections proved that his brand of politics was appealing to the broadest swath of voters. That has changed since he became president, as his approval ratings fell, something that has similarly bedeviled nearly all his predecessors.
Axelrod argued that the willingness of top Republicans to barnstorm the country may not pay off, as stars like Cruz, Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr. are not particularly appealing to swing voters. “Surrogates are generally more desirable for fundraisers and targeted communications than public events in this tricky terrain, because of the tricky path campaigns in swing states and districts have to walk,” Axelrod said.
For his part, Biden is devoting most of his public appearances this week to elevating the issues Democrats on the campaign trail are most focused on: abortion, gas prices and student debt cancellation. But he is doing it mostly from Washington, and his home state of Delaware, rather than from swing states like Nevada or Georgia.
On Monday, Biden, at a White House event, touted the application site for Americans to have their student loans forgiven. The next day, he went to the Howard Theatre in the District to implore voters to elect Democrats to protect abortion rights. On Wednesday, he announced from the Roosevelt Room that his administration would release another 15 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve to lower gas prices.
On Friday, Biden will travel to Delaware State University to deliver a speech about how his administration plans to cancel student debt. His home, where he spends many weekends, is in Wilmington, but there are no competitive statewide or federal races in Delaware. Biden will then spend the weekend at his beach house in Rehoboth Beach.
Linskey reported from Washington and Wootson reported from Pittsburgh.