Britain’s small and medium-sized businesses are once again caught in the political crossfire, with long-term Government borrowing costs vaulting to their highest level in nearly three decades as the City braces for what could prove a torrid week for Sir Keir Starmer.
The yield on the 30-year gilt climbed to 5.772 per cent on Tuesday, a level not seen since 1998, while the benchmark ten-year gilt jumped 0.13 percentage points to trade above 5.1 per cent, territory last visited during the 2008 financial crisis. As bond yields and prices move in opposite directions, the sell-off lays bare the depth of unease among investors. For SME owners watching their overdrafts and refinancing windows, it is a deeply unwelcome turn.
The trigger is Thursday’s local elections, in which Labour is widely tipped to shed well over 1,000 council seats to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and the Green Party. Should the results prove as bleak as forecast, Westminster watchers expect Sir Keir to face an internal challenge, most likely from the Labour left, with the Manchester mayor Andy Burnham and the former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner among those whose names are circulating in Whitehall and the Square Mile alike.
For investors, the calculation is brutally simple: any successor drawn from that wing of the party is likely to loosen the purse strings further, piling additional borrowing on to an already stretched balance sheet.
“The prospect of a leadership challenge is yet another source of uncertainty for businesses and households that could prompt them to put off investment and spending,” Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, told clients in a note. “Financial markets would likely respond by pushing gilt yields higher, as any successor is likely to be more spendthrift than Starmer and [Rachel] Reeves, raising borrowing costs across the economy.”
Analysts at the Japanese investment bank Nomura warned that “low turnout … and voters more willing to register a protest at local vs national elections make this set of elections particularly risky for Labour and the PM in particular.”
The implications for the UK’s 5.5 million small and medium-sized enterprises are sobering. Britain’s borrowing costs are now the highest in the G7, and have climbed sharply since the Gulf conflict erupted just over two months ago. As a major importer of natural gas, the country is acutely exposed to the war’s inflationary aftershocks, and that pain feeds directly through to the cost base of every owner-managed firm in the land, from manufacturers wrestling with energy bills to high-street retailers facing yet another squeeze on consumer wallets.
The pound nudged higher against the dollar to $1.35 on Tuesday, but the FTSE 100 closed more than 1 per cent down as investors trimmed their exposure to UK assets across the board.
Compounding the gloom, the Bank of England is now widely expected to lift interest rates later this year rather than cut them, a sharp reversal from the consensus that prevailed before hostilities began. Last week, Threadneedle Street warned that rates could climb as high as 5.25 per cent if oil and gas prices remain elevated, with inflation potentially breaching 6 per cent in a worst-case scenario, up from 3.3 per cent today. Bank Rate was held at 3.75 per cent at the latest meeting.
Nomura, BNP Paribas and Pantheon Macroeconomics have all torn up their forecasts, now pencilling in rate rises rather than the two cuts previously expected for 2026. For SMEs servicing variable-rate loans, asset finance arrangements or commercial mortgages, that represents a meaningful step-change in the cost of doing business.
Bond markets, normally preoccupied with the minutiae of interest-rate expectations, have grown unusually fixated on Westminster. The fear is that Sir Keir will either be forced into a more expansive fiscal stance to placate his backbenchers, or replaced outright by a successor with an even bigger spending appetite. Either path leads to heavier borrowing at a moment when the public finances are already perilously thin: the debt-to-GDP ratio is hovering near 100 per cent and debt interest payments are projected to exceed £100 billion a year until at least 2031.
In a separate blow on Tuesday, the Bank of England disclosed that the cumulative loss on its quantitative easing programme had widened to £125 billion, up from £115 billion previously, a tab the taxpayer will pick up under the indemnity agreement struck with the Treasury.
For Britain’s business owners, the message from the gilt market is uncomfortable but unmistakable. Whatever Thursday delivers at the ballot box, the cost of capital is heading in one direction, and prudence, on hiring, on capex, on inventory, is once again the watchword.
Read more:
Gilt yields hit 28-year peak as Starmer’s grip slips and SMEs brace for the bill