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Irrational Exuberance 2.0: Over-the-Top Stock and Bond Markets are Due for Reversal
Stocks

Irrational Exuberance 2.0: Over-the-Top Stock and Bond Markets are Due for Reversal

by October 1, 2023

During a New York speech, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, aka “The Maestro,” uttered the phrase: “Irrational Exuberance.” He was referring to the bullish action in the stock market at the time, which, in his mind, might have been ahead of reasonable expectations about the future of corporate earnings and the state of the economy.

We are currently in one of those periods of irrational exuberance. Except this time, it’s the bears in the stock and bond markets who are channeling Greenspan.

And yes, I’m aware of the inflation figures and the market’s consensus that we are in a period of stagflation. But even as the Fed talks about keeping interest rates “higher for longer”, what I see is that it’s getting harder for businesses to operate, which historically is a prelude to a slowing economy.  That’s because the Fed and the bond market have pushed interest rates beyond what the markets and the economy can handle. Thus, some sort of reversal is in the cards, perhaps in both bond and stock markets.

Something’s got to give; soon. So the best approach is to stay patiently alert, compile a shopping list, and be prepared to deploy cash when the market turns.

Costco Banks on Consumer Fear

If there is such a thing as life being oversold, we’re looking at it. Consumers are tapped out. Business confidence is hugging its recent bottom. Governments are running irreparable deficits and insurmountable debt levels. And public opinion on just about everything is near the lows of recent history.

Fear in the real world is so high that Costco (COST) is selling gold bars on their website. They recently ran for $1900 per ounce and sold out in a blink. It’s also increasing its survival food offerings.

In fact, it’s that fear in the public’s mind that led to the company’s beating analyst of expectations in its most recent quarter. In good old contrarian fashion, Costco monetized the fear factor handsomely. Here’s what they said in their earnings news release:

Comparable sales rose 1.1% year over year, but only 0.2% in the U.S.;Rising sales registered in groceries, but not in big ticket discretionary items;Members made more trips to the stores but spent less on average; andThere was higher store traffic, but smaller average tickets.

One percent sales growth total and flat sales in the U.S. is a cautionary sign. But the company was able to beat estimates by converting the cautious into executive memberships (twice the cost of regular memberships) and by catering to their concerns.

The market clearly liked what it heard from the company, as the shares rallied and are on the verge of a price breakout. On Balance Volume (OBV) and Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) are both moving higher, confirming positive money flows into the shares.

Costco is profiting from the public’s fear, while the market is not quite there yet. But, as I describe in the sections below, we are closing in on oversold levels in the market from where a meaningful bounce can materialize.

Irrational Exuberance: Bond Yields Should be Topping Out as Homebuilders Look to Bottom

If Costco’s flattening sales, which are leaning toward gold bars and survival food, are a hint as to where things stand, then it follows that bond yields are too high, which implies that the Fed has already gone too far in the tightening cycle and that lower yields are in the offing.

So again, I am noting that the U.S. Ten Year Treasury Note (TNX) yield is well above its normal trading range as it skirts along the upper Bollinger Band aligned with its 200-day moving average. As I noted in my recent video on Bollinger Bands, when this happens, it’s usually a prelude to a reversal the current trend.

Rising bond yields have led to rising mortgage rates and weakness in the homebuilder stocks, which, as I recently noted to subscribers of Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com and members of my Buy Me a Coffee page here, may be poised for a rebound.

As the chart below shows, rates (MORTGAGE) are even further outside their upper Bollinger Band than TNX. That’s a picture of a market which is on the verge of something big happening. A normal response would be for a downside reversal.

You can see that smart money is starting to build positions in the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) as the On Balance Volume (OBV) line is stabilizing even as the Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) line still heading lower. This is a bullish divergence, as OBV measures the action in real buyers while at this stage of the cycle, ADI’s downtrend points to activity by short sellers.

Together, these indicators suggest that a potential short squeeze in homebuilders is likely, once bond yields and mortgage rates come down to earth after the extended period of irrational exuberance created by the Fed reverses.

Join the smart money at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com, where I have just added five home builder stocks to the model portfolios. You can have a look at my latest recommendations FREE with a two week trial subscription. And for frequent updates on real estate and housing, click here.

The Market’s Breadth Tests Key Decision Point; Money Moving Back into Tech

The NYSE Advance Decline line (NYAD) clawed its way back to its 200-day moving average behind an oversold RSI reading. The short term could be bumpy, so the outcome of what happens here could well define the action in Q4 for stocks.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) found support and is now negotiating the 14500-15000 support area. ADI is falling, but OBV has turned up, which means we are likely to see a bigger clash between short sellers and buyers at some point in the future.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is not faring as well, as it remains below 4350 and its 20- and 50-day moving averages. On the other hand, SPX closed below its lower Bollinger Band on 9/22/23 and remains near its recently oversold level on RSI.

VIX Remains Below 20  

VIX remains stubburnly below the 20 area. A move above 20 would be very negative.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity is Tightening Some

Liquidity is tightening. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), is an approximate sign of the market’s liquidity. It remains near its recent high in response to the Fed’s move and the rise in bond yields. A move below 5.0 would bullish. A move above 5.5% would signal that monetary conditions are tightening beyond the Fed’s intentions. That would be very bearish.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

October 1, 2023
The Worst Month of the Year is Behind Us — Here’s What We Need to See for Better Times Ahead
Stocks

The Worst Month of the Year is Behind Us — Here’s What We Need to See for Better Times Ahead

by September 30, 2023

The S&P 500 posted its worst month so far, with a 4.9% decline that’s pushed the year-to-date returns for this benchmark index almost in half. With elevated interest rates that may be with us for a while, investors have pushed stocks lower, in a move that has over 10% of large-cap stocks well into oversold territory. We’re talking about names such as McDonalds (MCD), Boeing (BA) and Blackrock (BLK), to name just a few.

The current downtrend in the markets was signaled by a close below the 50-day moving average on heavy volume earlier this month, which was coupled by a move of the RSI and Stochastics  into negative territory. Further weakness followed, with news that the Fed is anticipating an elevated rate scenario for longer than anticipated, pushing stocks even lower.

DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX

Above is a daily chart of the S&P 500, and highlighted are the key characteristics that need to take place before we’re back in an uptrend. To begin, we’ll need this index to close above its 50-day moving average, coupled with a positive RSI and Stochastics. While this may appear far from possibly taking place, a multi-day rally in the mega-cap names such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL), which led us out of the March pullback, would go a very long way in sparking a reversal.

Outside of price action on the chart of the S&P 500, we’ll need to see interest rates trend lower from their current position. During the mid-March downtrend reversal, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed below the widely-watched 4% level after a lower-than-expected CPI report hinted at decelerating inflation. A similar drop in interest rates will be a key needed development to get investors back into these markets.

While we’re on the lookout for the markets to trend higher going into year-end, near term, we may see further weakness heading into next week. While the major indexes rebounded from midweek lows, a continuation rally into Friday was reversed, in a signal that the short-lived rally attempt had ended. The reversal followed news that a federal government shutdown is increasingly likely on Sunday after House Speaker McCarthy’s funding proposal was rejected.

With investor sentiment remaining negative over the near term, this is an ideal time to build out your watchlist for when we return to a more bullish period. For those who’d like to have immediate access to my highly curated watchlist, as well as be alerted to when it’s safe to get back into the markets, use this link here.

Warmly,

Mary Ellen McGonagle

September 30, 2023
Beware of Shorts in EXTREME Cycle Lows For The Market
Stocks

Beware of Shorts in EXTREME Cycle Lows For The Market

by September 29, 2023

The internals have all cycled to extreme low areas, which tells TG that being short would be risky — just like being super long at the end of July was also risky. The pendulum has swung to the lows, and now, in this week’s edition of Moxie Indicator Minutes, TG explains why you should start looking for strength if it presents itself.

This video was originally broadcast on September 29, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of Moxie Indicator Minutes premiere weekly on Fridays. Archived episodes of the show are available at this link.

September 29, 2023
We’re in BIG TROUBLE If Large Tech Stocks Rollover
Stocks

We’re in BIG TROUBLE If Large Tech Stocks Rollover

by September 29, 2023

In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Tyler and Alex walk through a top-down approach to the markets and see that there are plenty of reasons why equities are struggling. Treasury rates and the Dollar are in strong “Go” moves and breaking out. The trend was strong this week, as we see equities painting purple “NoGo” bars. What is worrying many investors is the idea that the large tech stocks are helping stem the “NoGo” tide; if they rollover as well, that could mean trouble. Charts of META, GOOGL, etc. are discussed.

This video originally premiered on September 29, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

Learn more about the GoNoGo ACP plug-in with the FREE starter plug-in or the full featured plug-in pack.

September 29, 2023
ChartPacks: The Quick and Easy Way to UNLEASH THE POWER of Your StockCharts Account
Stocks

ChartPacks: The Quick and Easy Way to UNLEASH THE POWER of Your StockCharts Account

by September 29, 2023

On this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s StockCharts in Focus, Grayson talks all about ChartPacks — the QUICKEST and EASIEST way to enhance your StockCharts account (old or new) in just one click! ChartPacks are pre-created collections of ChartLists that you can install right into your account; Grayson will be taking a special look at Dave Keller’s Morning Routine chart pack and show us how to put Dave’s charts right into your own account.

This video originally premiered on September 29, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated StockCharts in Focus page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

You can view all previously recorded episodes of StockCharts in Focus at this link.

September 29, 2023
Your Burning Questions, Answered: FATE of TESLA & Bullish Bias Solutions!
Stocks

Your Burning Questions, Answered: FATE of TESLA & Bullish Bias Solutions!

by September 29, 2023

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave answers viewer questions about Tesla’s potential trajectory towards the 200-day moving average and ways to normalize relative strength graphs using volatility measures. He also dives into his past trades’ technical setup, shares tips for setting up intraday trading charts, and much more!

This video originally premiered on September 29, 2023. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon LIVE at 4pm ET. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

September 29, 2023
Here’s Why the Nasdaq OUTPERFORMED Last Week
Stocks

Here’s Why the Nasdaq OUTPERFORMED Last Week

by September 29, 2023

In this episode of StockCharts TV‘s The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews areas of the market that are bucking the downtrend pressure elsewhere, as those often go on to provide leadership once the markets turn. She also shares how to use ETFs to uncover rotation taking place beneath the surface.

This video originally premiered September 29, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The MEM Edge premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link. You can also receive a 4-week free trial of her MEM Edge Report by clicking the image below.

September 29, 2023
Risk-Neutral Market Gauges Ahead of Sunday Deadline
Stocks

Risk-Neutral Market Gauges Ahead of Sunday Deadline

by September 29, 2023

We do not want to walk down the political aisle. Nonetheless, what person can turn their heads away from the Sunday deadline on funding the government?

The aftermath of a shutdown will most likely include a credit downgrade for the US. Do Americans need another reason to distrust the politicos?

With a 90% consensus that the funding will not pass, the bounce we saw in equities last week could be short-lived.

The Retail ETF XRT had a technically perfect mean reversion in momentum and a classic glass bottom reversal. Coming into Friday, 3 of our risk gauges said risk neutral. That gave us hope that our Granny Retail could lead us out of harm’s way. And, on the heels of Nike earnings, she kinda did.

However, will a bounce in the consumer sector help keep the risk gauges neutral? For that answer, we turn to another old reliable friend, high yield, high debt junk bonds.

These bonds are a key influencer for risk; after all, how bad can things be if companies with junk ratings are being bought for their higher-paying yield? That is a big risk-on factor.

We also look at their performance relative to the long bonds (TLT). Even though neutral can turn to risk-off, any hope from bond traders and/or the retail sector could also see risk-neutral turn to risk-on. We can hope, right?

The chart of HYG has several fascinating and a somewhat taming influence on the extreme negativity. For starters, HYG held its ground on Friday as the indices turned red. (So did XRT, by the way.) Secondly, HYG returned over the July 6-month calendar range low (red horizontal line). Thirdly, HYG held the March lows made after the mini-banking crisis. Fourth, HYG had a mean reversion buy in our Real Motion momentum indicator.

Fifth, and here is the risk gauge ratio, HYG is strongly outperforming the TLT (Leadership indicator). That is what bulls need to continue to see. Conversely, bulls do not want to see HYG fail the March lows. Nor do they want to see XRT take out last week’s lows. Furthermore, they do not want to see TLT catch a bid in fear of an oncoming recession while junk bonds underperform.

We like it when we can simplify the narrative. Junk bonds help us to accomplish that.

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

See Mish argus investors could jump into mega-tech over value and explain why she is keeping an eye on WTI prices on BNN Bloomberg’s Opening Bell.

Even as markets crumble, there are yet market opportunities to be found, as Mish discusses on Business First AM here.

Mish explains how she’s preparing for the next move in Equities and Commodities in this video with Benzinga’s team.

Mish talks about the head-and-shoulders top pattern for the S&P 500 in The Final Bar.

Mish covers sectors from the Economic Family, oil, and risk in this Yahoo! Finance video.

Mish shares why the most important ETFs to watch are Retailers (XRT) and Small Caps (IWM) in this appearance on the Thursday, September 20 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar with David Keller, and also explains MarketGauge’s latest plugin on the StockCharts ACP platform. Mish’s interview begins at 19:53.

Mish covers 7 stocks that are ripe for the picking on the Wednesday, September 20 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five, and she gives you actionable levels to watch.

Take a look at this analysis of StockCharts.com’s Charting Forward from Jayanthi Gopalkrishnan, which breaks down Mish’s conversation with three other charting experts about the state of the market in Q3 and beyond.

Mish was interviewed by Kitco News for the article “Oil Prices Hit Nearly One-Year High as it Marches Towards $100”, available to read here.

Mish covers short term trading in DAX, OIL, NASDAQ, GOLD, and GAS in this second part of her appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish talks Coinbase in this video from Business First AM!

Mish looks at some sectors from the economic family, oil, and risk in this appearance on Yahoo Finance!

Mish covers oil, gold, gas and the dollar in this CMC Markets video.

In this appearance on Business First AM, Mish explains why she’s recommending TEVA, an Israeli pharmaceutical company outperforming the market-action plan.

As the stock market tries to shake off a slow summer, Mish joins Investing with IBD to explain how she avoids analysis paralysis using the six market phases and the economic modern family. This edition of the podcast takes a look at the warnings, the pockets of strength, and how to see the bigger picture.

Mish was the special guest in this edition of Traders Edge, hosted by Jim Iuorio and Bobby Iaccino!

In this Q3 edition of StockCharts TV’s Charting Forward 2023, Mish joins a panel run by David Keller and featuring Julius de Kempenaer (RRG Research & StockCharts.com) and Tom Bowley (EarningsBeats). In this unstructured conversation, the group shares notes and charts to highlight what they see as important considerations in today’s market environment.

Coming Up:

October 2: Schwab, The Watch List 

October 4: Jim Puplava, Financial Sense

October 5: Yahoo! Finance

October 12: Dale Pinkert, F.A.C.E.

October 26: Schwab at the NYSE

October 27: Live in-studio with Charles Payne, Fox Business

October 29-31: The Money Show

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): There are multiple timeframe support levels round 420-415.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 huge.Dow (DIA): 334 pivotal.Nasdaq (QQQ): 330 possible if can’t get back above 365.Regional banks (KRE): 39.80 the July calendar range low.Semiconductors (SMH): 133 the 200-DMA with 147 pivotal resistance.Transportation (IYT): Could be another bright spot if clears 237. 225 support.Biotechnology (IBB): 120-125 range.Retail (XRT): 57 key support; if can climb over 63, get bullish.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

September 29, 2023
Stock Market Weekly Wrap Up: The Charts You Need To Have On Your Radar Now
Stocks

Stock Market Weekly Wrap Up: The Charts You Need To Have On Your Radar Now

by September 29, 2023

As Q3 and a dismal September end, some interesting dynamics are playing out in the stock market.

You can blame higher interest rates for some of the disjuncture that’s going on. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) is relatively low, yet the percentage of stocks trading below their 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages is relatively low. Here’s the market in a nutshell:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is trading below its 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 ($SPX) is trading below its 100-day moving average.The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) is trading below its 100-day moving average. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) is relatively low, at less than 18.Year to date, Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary are the three leading sectors. 

We saw a similar scenario unfold in 2005, but there are stark differences between then and now. In 2005, Energy was the leading sector for the year, with Utilities in second place. Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary were the two sectors in negative territory.

The Big Picture

Although history is known to repeat itself, each time, it’s still somewhat different. This year, investors are uncertain about inflation and interest rates. Plus, there is the possibility of a US government shutdown that could weave its way into the stock market. As Q3 ends and we gear up for Q4, it’s important to have the bigger picture in mind.

Let’s start with market breadth.

The chart below gives a good picture of the overall market breadth. The NYSE new 52-week highs ($NYHGH) are slowly rising. The new 52-week lows spiked, but they’re slowing down. And if you look at the high/low ratio, it’s pretty flat.

CHART 1: S&P 500 AND MARKET BREADTH. If there was one word to sum up the performance of the stock market, it would be “meh!” There’s not much momentum in either direction.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The market seems to be lacking momentum. Sometimes, it looks like it will move up, but sellers come in and cap the move. Similarly, when the market looks like it’s going to sink, buyers prop it up. So what catalyst will move the market in either direction? Will it be earnings, or something else?

The general thinking among Wall Street analysts is that Q4 will see strong earnings, which could be the catalyst the market is waiting for. But, on the flip side, Treasury yields are high. And higher yields haven’t been great for growth stocks.

The chart below shows the relationship between the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury Yield Index ($TNX). In the last half of September, the two diverged significantly.

CHART 2: S&P 500 VS. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS. Rising yields generally hurt growth stocks, as is evidenced in this chart. As yields were rising, the S&P 500 was moving lower.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Yields have reached levels they haven’t seen since 2007, and let’s hope the market doesn’t perform the way it did in 2007. The circumstances are indeed different this time. We don’t have the high levels of mortgage debt like we did then. There’s a chance that interest rates may be close to a peak, although the Fed could still hike once more this year. So, that may mean yields could stay higher for longer. And it’s the “higher for longer” regime that could be causing hesitancy among investors.

The bigger question is if stocks can perform well while interest rates are high. The dominant seasonality narrative of Q4 being strong could unfold. But if the large mega-cap stocks lead in Q4, could higher interest rates act as headwinds? If they are, it could make for relatively muted growth in Q4. But there’s a chance that other asset classes could dominate. How will the last three months of 2023 shape up?

The Bottom Line

It all depends on what interest rates do. The market could go either way. It could turn around and go higher, or could fall even further before moving higher. Keep an eye on market breadth, because it can reveal what’s brewing underneath the price bars.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

US equity indexes mixed; volatility up

$SPX down 0.27% at 4288.05, $INDU down 0.47% at 33507.50; $COMPQ up 0.14% at 13219.32$VIX up 1.04% at 17.52Best performing sector for the week: EnergyWorst performing sector for the week: UtilitiesTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Super Micro Computer (SMCI); Dell Technologies (DELL); Palantir Technologies (PLTR); Splunk Inc. (SPLK); Jabil, Inc. (JBIL).

On the Radar Next Week

September ISM Manufacturing PMIFed speechesISM Services PMISeptember non-farm payrolls

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

September 29, 2023
Crude Oil Disagreeing with the Canadian Dollar
Stocks

Crude Oil Disagreeing with the Canadian Dollar

by September 29, 2023

One of the not-too-surprising correlations in the financial markets is shown in this week’s chart. There is a strong positive correlation between the dollar price of crude oil and the Canadian dollar-to-US dollar exchange rate. The relationship is not surprising, as Canada is a major oil-producing country, and so, as goes the price of oil, so go the fortune’s of Canada’s currency.

But as we see in this week’s chart, while there is usually a very strong positive correlation, the two do not always agree. The fun point about this is that when they disagree, it is usually the Canadian dollar that ends up being “right” about where both are headed. That is relevant right now because crude oil has rallied since early July from in the $60s to now above $90/barrel, but the Canadian dollar is making a divergent lower high.

I have highlighted several other such divergences, moments when the two plots disagreed about which way to go. In each of these disagreements, one would have been better off listening to the message of the Canadian dollar than listening to the price direction of crude oil.

If that tendency continues, then we should expect at least a small stumble for crude oil prices just ahead, as the oil market realizes it has zigged when its partner zagged, and crude oil works to make up for that overstep. Then again, now that I have pointed out this tendency, this could be the one time that the rule does not work, just because I shared it.

September 29, 2023
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