Stocks

Join Dave as he reviews three common candle patterns traders can use to identify potential turning points. From bullish engulfing patterns to evening star patterns, Dave gives insights on how to leverage these powerful candle signals to anticipate market shifts. He also shows combining candle patterns with conventional technical analysis tools can help improve success rates.

This video originally premiered on July 14, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is riding a wave of surging optimism, smashing past $112k as retail and institutional capital pour into the cryptocurrency. Some say the market has grown euphoric, and that a sharp pullback may be lurking around the corner. Others believe this is just the beginning of another leg higher.

A few key questions to guide your analysis: What does $BTCUSD’s history tell us about breakouts above major resistance after a prolonged period of sideways movement? If it’s the start of another move higher, how can you project an upside target? And, if it reverses, where could support levels come into play?

What $BTCUSD’s History Reveals About Breakouts and Big Rallies

Let’s begin by taking a look at a 3-year weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Note the crypto’s impressive rallies after clearing resistance following a prolonged period of sideways trading.

In 2023, $BTCUSD traded sideways for six months, repeatedly failing to break above resistance around $31k. But once it did, the crypto soared more than 126% before a major pullback.

A similar pattern unfolded in 2024: seven months in a wide range, unable to clear resistance between $71k and $73k. When $BTCUSD finally broke out in November, it staged a parabolic move, rallying nearly 47% before pulling back again, setting another key resistance zone that brings it to overhead resistance range between $110k–$112k.

So this answers the question posed about $BTCUSD’s historical tendencies after breaking above a prolonged range. Historically, the crypto tends to stage an outsized run once it clears critical resistance. But will it happen this time around? If so, how can you estimate a potential upside target? And if the breakout fails, where might $BTCUSD find support?

Seasonality Trends: $BTCUSD’s Strongest Months

Before looking at a daily chart, let’s look at $BTCUSD’s seasonality chart going back 10 years. If you’re curious as to how the crypto has performed during the summer months, maybe this can help.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Most months on average have been quite strong for the asset, but October’s performance has been strong, with an average seasonal return of 21%.

According to its seasonality performance, July is arguably strong with a favorable positive close rate (70%) and return (9.6%). However, October is the crypto’s strongest month, with an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 21%. Over the last 10 years, $BTCUSD’s performance has been volatile, which accounts for the outsize returns on this chart. While seasonal tendencies don’t guarantee a repeat, knowing the general bullish/bearish seasonality context can help inform your analysis and trading decisions.

Now, let’s look at a daily chart to find entry points or estimate an upside target while identifying support, should its breakout fail to follow through.

$BTCUSD Breaks Critical $112K Resistance

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF $BTCUSD. The asset just broke above critical resistance. If you have a position, now’s the time to estimate potential price targets.

$BTCUSD just broke the critical resistance level of $112k. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating strong momentum, easing into an overbought reading. While there’s no way to fundamentally determine the crypto’s upside target, one technical method is to use a measured move by taking the height of the prior range and adding it to the top of the range (or the breakout level; this varies by trader).

Calculating an Upside Target Using a Measured Move Approach

Measuring the range from the support area around $98k up to $110–112k (we’ll settle for $110k), you can project that distance of $12k above the top level of the breakout range, which implies a potential target near $124k, more or less.

$110k breakout + $12k range height = $122k–$124k target, depending on entry.

However, note that some traders don’t wait for a 100% measured move before taking profits. Some will exit positions as soon as a 60% move has occurred, but that really depends on the trader.

Key Support Levels to Watch if the Breakout Fails

Now, if $BTCUSD fails to follow through and reverses, you can reasonably expect support at roughly these three levels:

The breakout level near $112k.A strong historical support level at around $110k.Another support level within the previous trading range (shaded red) near $100k, which coincides with concentrated levels of trading activity, according to the Volume-by-Price (the horizontal volume bars on the left side of the chart).

If $BTCUSD falls below the previous trading range, that is, below $98k, then the current rally is likely over.

What to Do Now

Ideally, a trader’s entry point would have been at $112k. Considering that some platforms allow fractional lots of $BTCUSD, some people may choose to enter smaller positions, as a fractional position would minimize risk and reward.

If you already have a position in $BTCUSD, put it in your ChartLists, and set a price alert at $124k or any measured move percentage below that 100% target level (like 60% of the measured move would be at $119k).

If the breakout fails, expect a near-term bounce between $110k and $112k. However, a move lower toward $100k or $98k would likely signal an end to the bullish thesis. Traders might even consider placing a stop a few points below $98k to avoid the likelihood of further downside.

At the Close

$BTCUSD has a history of explosive moves after clearing major resistance, but it can just as easily blindside you with a sudden reversal. That’s why it’s crucial to keep upside and downside levels in mind. Seasonality also favors the bulls, with most months delivering favorable returns. Add the crypto to your ChartLists and set price alerts to track whether your upside target is hit, or whether downside levels signal either an early bounce or a failed rally.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

After a relatively quiet week for the S&P 500, we’re seeing some interesting shifts in sector dynamics. Let’s dive into the latest rankings, RRG analysis, and what it means for our portfolio strategy.

Sector Shifts and RRG Insights: Materials on the Move

The big news this week is the ascent of the Materials sector, which has muscled its way into the top five at the expense of the Utilities sector.

The rest of the top five remained steady, but we’re seeing some movement in the lower ranks as well. Consumer Discretionary made a notable jump from #9 to #7, pushing Consumer Staples and Real Estate down a notch each. Energy and Health Care continue to bring up the rear at #10 and #11, respectively.

(1) Technology – (XLK)(2) Industrials – (XLI)(3) Communication Services – (XLC)(4) Financials – (XLF)(6) Materials – (XLB)*(5) Utilities – (XLU)*(9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*(7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*(8) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*(10) Energy – (XLE)(11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) gives us a broader perspective on sector trends. Technology continues to dominate, firmly entrenched in the leading quadrant, no surprises there.

Industrials is showing stability with a short tail in the leading quadrant, indicating a consistent relative uptrend.

Communication Services, however, is raising some eyebrows. It’s lurking in the weakening quadrant with a short tail, suggesting a stable relative uptrend but with negative momentum.

Financials are teetering on the edge of the lagging quadrant, a move that demands attention.

Materials, despite its rise in the rankings, is actually in the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG. You will see why it made its way into the top 5 on the daily RRG.

Daily RRG

On the daily RRG, we get a more nuanced picture of short-term sector movements:

Materials (XLB) is the star of the show, crossing into the leading quadrant and standing alone in that coveted space.Financials (XLF) is showing weakness, rolling over and heading back towards the lagging quadrant — confirming what we saw on the weekly chart.Communication Services is on the verge of crossing into the lagging quadrant, a sign that is not great for its current #3 ranking.Industrials is flexing its muscles, approaching the leading quadrant with a positive heading.Technology, while rotating into the weakening quadrant, still has ample room to bounce back into leading territory.

Technology

The tech train continues to roll, breaking through resistance around 240 and maintaining its upward trajectory in both price and relative strength. The RS line is pushing higher after a clean breakout from its falling trend, a bullish sign for the sector leader.

Industrials

XLI is following through nicely on both price and relative strength charts. The raw RS line has established a new higher low, dragging the RS ratio higher. In my opinion, this sector looks rock-solid.

Communication Services

Here’s where things get dicey. XLC is clinging to its breakout above 105, but last week’s decline is testing that former resistance as new support. The raw RS line breaking below rising support is a warning sign, this sector could be in for a bumpy ride.

Financials

Similar to Communications Services, Financials has retreated to test old resistance as support. The raw RS line looks even worse here, having broken out of its rising channel weeks ago. Both RRG lines are flirting with the 100 level; a further push into the lagging quadrant seems likely.

Materials

XLB is showing some muscle, breaking out of its falling channel and taking out recent highs. The raw RS line is pushing against falling resistance — if it can break through, we could see a significant turnaround in the RRG lines, confirming the sector’s newfound strength.

Portfolio Performance

Now, for the part that might sting a bit, the portfolio drawdown is ongoing. It’s something trend followers need to learn to live with. Currently, the portfolio is down about 2% for the year, while the S&P 500 is up over 6%. That puts us roughly 8% behind the benchmark YTD.

It’s not a comfortable position, but it’s part of the game. Trend-following strategies often lag in choppy or rapidly changing markets. The key is to stay disciplined and trust in the long-term efficacy of our approach.

#StayAlert and have a great week, Julius

I remain very bullish and U.S. stocks have run hard to the upside off the April low with growth stocks leading the way. I expect growth stocks to remain strong throughout the summer months, as they historically do, but we need to recognize that they’ve already seen tremendous upside. Could technology (XLK) names, in particular, use a period of consolidation? Well, if we look at a 5-year weekly chart, the XLK really isn’t that overbought just yet:

The weekly PPO has crossed its centerline and is gaining bullish momentum. The recent price breakout suggests to me that we likely have further to run. And if you look at the weekly RSI, you’ll note that we’ve seen the weekly RSI move well into the 70s and even close to 80 before witnessing a market top or pause. Outside a bit of profit taking, I really don’t see the likelihood of a big selloff here. Keep in mind that the XLK represents 31% of the S&P 500. If the XLK doesn’t slow down, it’s very unlikely that we’ll see any type of meaningful decline in the S&P 500 either.

Growth vs. Value

Growth stocks have historically performed well over the summer months. One way to visualize this is to compare large-cap growth (IWF) to large-cap value (IWD) using a seasonality chart. Check this out:

The average monthly outperformance since 2013 is reflected at the bottom of each month’s column. If you add those numbers for May through August, you get +5.4%. If you add those numbers for the other 8 months combined, you get +0.6%. Clearly, large-cap growth has the tendency to outperform value from May through August. We’re in the growth “sweet spot” right now.

So Should We Lower Our Market Expectations?

I say absolutely not. Yes, we’ve run substantially higher off that April low, but I see more left in the tank. Will we see profit taking from time to time and could we see a period of consolidation? Sure. But I still believe that remaining on the sidelines is a big mistake as plenty of market upside remains. In fact, I see another somewhat forgotten asset class that’s poised to scorch 50% higher or more, possibly over the next 6 months. I’m investing in this area now, as I believe it’s in the early stages of a significant rally, and believe it would be prudent for you to take a look as well. For more information, simply CLICK HERE, provide your name and email address, and I’ll send you a video that explains exactly why I’m favoring this group right now!

Happy trading!

Tom

Is the market flashing early signs of a shift?

In this week’s video, Mary Ellen McGonagle breaks down the subtle but telling moves happening under the surface. From strength in semiconductors, home builders, and energy to surging momentum in Bitcoin and silver, Mary Ellen highlights the sectors gaining traction and the technical setups traders should have on their radar.

She also spots stocks breaking above key moving averages, potential reversal patterns, and discusses actionable insights heading into earnings season.

If you’re looking for timely trade ideas and a roadmap to where money is flowing next, don’t miss this breakdown.

This video premiered on July 11, 2025.

You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

As we navigate the evolving stock market landscape, understanding key sectors and their trends is important, especially during earnings season. This week, the spotlight shines on the Financial sector, with several of the largest banks reporting. Five of the top 10 holdings within the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) are on deck: J.P. Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Morgan Stanley (MS). 

This week we will focus on the Financial sector via XLF and zoom in on one of its top components, Goldman Sachs.

The Financial Sector: A Technical Look at XLF

XLF has been outperforming the S&P 500 ($SPX), experiencing new all-time highs, and has been a leading sector in the most recent market rebound.

Now that all banks that were susceptible to the Fed’s stress test have passed with flying colors, questions loom about whether less stringent regulations will lead to more growth. The sector has not experienced much M&A activity, and the IPO market has yet to come back to a healthy level of activity. However, there is hope that a banking renaissance is on the horizon, and maybe this quarter will give a rosier outlook than more recent forecasts.

Technically, XLF looks promising. Shares broke out to new all-time highs ahead of earnings and are now set up with good risk/reward potential for investors. 

The pattern from which it broke out is a bit of a wonky head-and-shoulders pattern. I’d call this a stretch as it isn’t picture perfect, but the price image presented is close enough to set parameters to trade. 

The breakout on a gap to new highs is extremely bullish, and that gap level could be used as a stop-loss to the downside, worst case should be the rising 50-day moving average. Buyers should come back into the sector there on a dip.

Goldman Sachs (GS): A Bellwether

Goldman Sachs, the largest component in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average, reports results on Wednesday morning just days after hitting all-time highs. Investors will be looking for any commentary focused on tariffs and margins. 

Has there been any impact on their results, or have concerns about inflation been overblown? Any earnings pressure on their bottom line could cause ripple effects throughout other sectors like industrials, materials, and technology. 

Shares declined 33% then rallied 65% from their April 7 lows. Shares may need a breather as they are overbought, but that’s where opportunity may lie. Wouldn’t chase it just yet. I would own for the long term, but price action could be very interesting when they report next week. 

One bold prediction — look for a possible stock split announcement. Since their debut in 1999, shares have never split. Seeing the recent price surge and its size in the Dow, that option should be on the table. 

Technically, shares have been on a tremendous run as they’ve rallied 65% from their April 7 lows. Shares may need a breather as they are overbought, but that may be where the opportunity lies when they report next week. 

The stock has rallied with a series of gaps along the way. Those gaps tell a story, and it’s worth watching the most recent gap from $690 to $700. Each jump higher has not experienced a full retracement — a gap fill, if you will.

The gaps higher have been very bullish. The first large gap — a breakaway gap — started the main part of this rally. We have seen a series of smaller gaps that helped extend the rally. Now, we may be tiring. Watch the $690 level to see if that gap can hold. If it can’t, then there may be more selling pressure over the near term. 

A healthy pullback given the strong bull run is likely, but buyable. A break below $690 could see a swift move lower to the $665 level. If things turn negative, then the rising 50-day moving average, which coincides with a key Fibonacci retracement level just below $620 would be an ideal entry point from a risk/reward perspective. 

The good news is that any weakness in the stock looks like it should be met with great opportunities to enter the name. The long-term trend is up, and the momentum is there not only in the stock but within the sector. The long-term trader shouldn’t fret earnings; the swing trader may get an opportunity to buy a dip from an overbought condition. The bad news would be that the stock gaps higher again and continues its upward trajectory. 

Beyond Financials: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

While financials take center stage, we want to touch upon another significant company reporting this week: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

JNJ shares have remained relatively flat for the better part of five years. Much of the earnings focus will be on plans to navigate patent expirations. 

Merck acquired Verona last week. The patent cliff will continue to be a hot topic for the entire pharma industry. As for JNJ, it’s confronting the expiration of exclusivity on Stelara, its $10B+ immunology blockbuster drug. The exclusivity expires first in Europe this year and then in the U.S. in 2026.

As for reaction to earnings, don’t expect too much activity. The average move post-results has been +/- 2.05%. Shares have traded lower after five of the last seven times. Shares of the Dow stock are up 8% year-to-date and -9% off their highs.

Technically, there isn’t much to see here. We backed it out to look at price in a five-year weekly range to illustrate that point.

Shares have been in a wide range between roughly $138 to $168 over this lengthy span. Yes, I yawned when I typed this out — it’s that boring. We don’t expect much to change, but there are small setups for a shorter-term swing trader.

The stock, while breaking above the midpoint of this longer-term range, is forming a bullish ascending triangle and has, albeit tight, risk/reward parameters for those looking to trade. 

To the downside, look for the continued near-term uptrend to hold and find support right at the 200-day moving average just below $153. A good entry point in which one could manage risk. 

To the upside, a break above $158 could take shares to their recent highs and slowly and steadily towards the $168 level. The set-up is far from ideal when looking at the longer-term action, but near term, there could be a quick play and maybe, just maybe, shares can finally escape the longer-term neutral range. 

The S&P continues to push higher, with the equity benchmark almost reaching 6300 this week for the first time in history.  With so many potential macro headwinds still surrounding us, how can the market continue to reflect so much optimism?  On the other hand, when will bulls wake up and realize that this market is obviously overextended and rotate significantly lower?

With the S&P 500 once again achieving new all-time highs, and with Q2 earnings just around the corner, I thought it would be a perfect time to revisit an exercise in probabilistic analysis.  Basically, I’ll lay out four different scenarios for the S&P 500 index between now and late August.  Which path do you see as the most likely and why?  Watch the video, check out the first scenarios, and then cast your vote!

By the way, we last ran this analytical process on the S&P 500 back in May, and check out which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the S&P 500 index continuing the recent uptrend phase to retest all-time highs by June.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

The most bullish scenario would involve the S&P 500 continuing a similar trajectory that we’ve seen off the April low.  Growth continues to dominate, tariffs remain essentially a non-issue, volatility remains lower, and the market moves onward and ever upward!

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if the uptrend continues, but at a much slower rate?  The “mildly bullish scenario” would mean the S&P 500 probably tops out around 6300-6400 but doesn’t get any further.  Perhaps a leadership rotation emerges, and technology stocks start to pull back as investors rotate to other sectors and themes.  Lack of upside momentum from the largest growth names slows the uptrend in a big way.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

Maybe “the top” is already in, and even though July is traditionally a strong month, we see a corrective move into August that brings the S&P 500 down to the 200-day moving average.  Bulls and bears would probably feel quite vindicated here, as bulls would see this as a healthy pullback, and bears would see this as a serious wake up call for investors.

Dave’s vote: 45%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

We always need a doomsday scenario, and here we’ll describe how the S&P 500 could go back down to retest the May price gap.  If Q2 earnings season becomes all about companies reflecting on a significantly negative impact from potential tariffs, and investors begin to not just complain about overvalued stocks but actually start selling as a result, we could certainly see a downside move to retrace about 38.2% of the April to July uptrend phase.

Dave’s vote: 15%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios?  Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Up to this point, the S&P 500 ($SPX) has now stayed above the 6,200-mark for eight straight days. The upside follow-through has been limited, but the drawdown has also been shallow. The onus continues to be on the bears to do something with the stretched state. We discuss this in terms of the CappThesis Market Strength Indicator below.

What Is the Market Strength Indicator (MSI)?

When the market makes strong moves, like they have recently, I like to review our Market Strength Indicator (MSI).  This isn’t some secret, proprietary formula. It’s a simple blend of trend, oscillator indicators, and patterns, factors that we base our market stance upon.

And surprise, surprise, the MSI is as bullish as can be with the SPX at new highs and up 30% in three months.

The S&P 500 is trading above each moving average, and each moving average is sloping higher. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Williams %R are both overbought. We use both of these since it takes a considerable up move to get the RSI to overbought territory. And while the Williams %R swings to extremes much more easily, it can only stay overbought if the market continues to tick higher with minimal drawdowns. Clearly, all of this has been happening. And, of course, two big pattern breakouts remain in play. Two weeks ago, the MSI was even more extreme when we had four patterns in play at the same time.

Here are each of those indicators together on one chart. (We don’t show the patterns here since it would be way too much to display all at once – and that would be an offensive chart crime.)

The clear next question:

Now what?

Market Strength Indicator Now vs. April 7, 2025

First, the obvious. The MSI was completely depressed on April 7 after two months of intense selling and extreme volatility.

Interestingly, though, after that last massive downside gap on April 7, the final bearish pattern target was hit. That set the stage for a bottoming process to potentially begin.

With the pendulum now having completely swung from historically oversold to now extended, does a very bullish MSI suggest the upswing is unsustainable?  

Bulls and bears agree on one thing these days: The pace of the last three months can’t continue, and at any time, a pullback greater than the 3.5% drop from mid-May is going to happen. It’s just a matter of when. 

Now let’s look at the recent times when the MSI got to extreme levels like now.

Market Strength Indicator Now vs. 2023–24

The results are crystal clear. “Extreme” MSI readings are the result of strong technicals, which occur in uptrends. And uptrends tend to last longer than many think is possible or probable.

From this perspective, only once did a correction begin right after a high MSI reading – in July’24. At the time, though, only one bullish pattern was in play (the one with the long-term 6,100 target that was triggered way back in Jan’24). 

Now, of course, we have two live bullish formations, and for the uptrend to persist without a major market disturbance, we’ll need to see the next bout of profit-taking morph into the next set of short-term bullish formations.

Live Patterns

Our two live patterns remain – targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For those to eventually be achieved, though, new, smaller versions will need to be constructed.

Live Patterns

Our two live patterns remain – targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For those to eventually be achieved, though, new, smaller versions will need to be constructed.

If you’re serious about trading or investing, establishing a weekly market routine is a must. But where do you begin?  

In this eye-opening video, Grayson Roze, Chief Strategist at StockCharts, shares the method he uses every week to stay aligned with the market’s biggest drivers — the top 25 stocks by market cap. 

Learn how to build a customized ChartList of these stocks, sort the stocks by market cap, and different ways to review them to spot long-term trends or reversals.

Whether you’re new to charting or a seasoned technician, this routine could transform how you view the market. 

This video originally premiered on July 11, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

The stock market continued to push higher with the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) closing at record highs on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) tacked on a solid 192 points (+0.43%). There was a pullback on Friday, but July is a seasonally strong month, the economy remains healthy, and volatility is low, fueling a clear risk-on vibe. 

But even in a healthy market, investors face a dilemma. The question lingers: “Should I buy now or wait for a pullback?” One often-ignored clue can help you decide: small-cap price action. 

Small Cap Stocks: The Silent Signal

Small caps have been struggling in the recent past. Every time they break above a key resistance level, they’re not able to hold their position for too long. They’re breaking out again, and this time, you’ll want them on your radar.

Since early April, small-caps have been rising along with other asset groups. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) has broken above the 1380 level, an area that, in the past, has served as a key support level (see chart below). 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX ($SML). The index broke above the 1380 level on Thursday but pulled back on Friday. If the upside move continues, it would support a higher move in the large-cap indexes. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The percentage of S&P 600 stocks trading above the 200-day moving average was above 50 on Thursday, and advances were greater than declines. The expanding breadth in small caps supports a move higher. For as long as this breadth holds, the broader market has room to keep climbing. 

In the five-year weekly chart of $SML, you can see that $SML has broken above its 40-week simple moving average (SMA). A continued move higher would support a rise in the overall market. When small caps participate in the upside move, it’s an indication that the health of the overall market is strong. We saw this happen at the end of 2023 when $SML broke above its 40-week SMA. It stayed above that moving average until the end of March 2025. During that time, the S&P 500 gained almost 50% (see figure 3). 

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF $SML AND S&P 500. $SML broke above its 40-week SMA, supporting the S&P 500’s move higher. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In the weekly chart of the S&P 500, it’s evident that the large-cap index led the move higher. 

FIGURE 3. FIVE-YEAR WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 500. The large-cap index led the move higher, but small caps led the move lower. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

But here’s where it gets interesting. If you compare the chart of $SML and $SPX, it’s clear that the small-cap index started its decline well ahead of its large-cap cousin. $SML pulled back to its 40-week SMA in early January 2025 and bounced off it. The high was lower than the previous high, the first sign of a confirmed downtrend. 

The S&P started its downtrend in early February, which was confirmed in late February when it hit resistance at its 40-week SMA and declined. The small caps rolled over first, and if you had noticed it, it would have been your first alert that large-cap stocks would soon follow. 

Will Small Caps Outrun Large Caps?

In an environment where capital is rotating into growth stocks, it’s unlikely small caps will outperform large-cap stocks. In the chart of the SPDR Portfolio S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SPSM) vs. the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), between 2023 and 2025, small caps underperformed the large caps. (Note: This chart can be accessed from the Market Summary page.)

FIGURE 4. PERFORMANCE OF SMALL CAPS. VS. LARGE CAPS. Between 2023 and 2025, small caps underperformed large caps. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The takeaway: Since small caps lead the broader market lower, investors should make it a point to monitor their price action, especially when the stock market continues to rise. 

Add $SML or a small-cap proxy such as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) or the SPDR Portfolio S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SPSM) to your ChartLists. When you see a confirmed downtrend in small caps, expect a pullback in large caps. It may not happen immediately, but at least you’ll be better prepared for the next significant pullback or correction.  

Closing Position

Small-cap stocks may not take the place of the large-cap growth stocks in your portfolio, but they silently signal the market’s next move. By monitoring $SML and small-cap proxies on StockCharts, you’ll get an early heads-up, which will allow you to act with confidence — whether that means trimming your winners, adding hedges, or jumping into new setups.

Are you ready to follow the price action in the charts? Log in to your StockCharts.com account, click on the charts in this article, and save them to your ChartLists.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.