The ink is barely dry on Andy Burnham’s by-election victory and Britain’s small business community is already braced for what comes next.
Exclusive research shared with Business Matters reveals that the overwhelming majority of the country’s small and medium-sized enterprise owners are fearful about what the Greater Manchester mayor’s arrival in Westminster, and his widely tipped run at Number 10, could mean for their firms.
The study, conducted by Trends Research, surveyed 2,000 SME owners in the days since Burnham swept to victory at Makerfield last Thursday. More than 80% told researchers they were fearful about the implications for their business, a striking figure in a sector that accounts for more than 5.5 million firms and over 99% of the UK business population.
Burnham took the seat with almost 55% of the vote, seeing off Reform UK and handing himself the Commons platform that, under Labour rules, allows him to mount a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer. The mechanics of how a sitting metro mayor can also serve as an MP have been picked over in detail by the House of Commons Library, but for many business owners the constitutional fine print matters less than the policy direction it signals.
That anxiety has roots. Burnham has built his pitch on an interventionist, redistributive platform, and his name has been attached to proposals ranging from a land value tax to expanded local levies such as a tourist charge on overnight stays. For owner-managers already wrestling with higher employment costs, the prospect of a more activist Treasury is unsettling. Business confidence has been fragile for some time, as our reporting on how Labour’s tax decisions have dampened consumer and business sentiment has charted over recent months.
The fear is not abstract. It lands on people who are already stretched. Separate research has pointed to soaring stress levels among the UK’s smallest firms, and the Trends Research findings suggest a fresh layer of political uncertainty is now compounding that pressure. When eight in ten owners express unease about a single individual’s potential premiership, it speaks to how exposed the sector feels to decisions taken well above its pay grade.
It would be wrong, though, to read the numbers as a settled verdict. Burnham has not yet formally challenged Sir Keir, who has insisted he will not step aside, and the mayor has at points positioned himself as a champion of regional growth and a backer of hospitality through a lower VAT rate. The concern voiced by those 2,000 owners is rooted in uncertainty as much as opposition, and uncertainty can cut both ways.
What the research makes plain is that the small business community is watching Westminster closely and nervously. With capital allowances, employment rules and the tax burden all sensitive to a change at the top, owners have learned to take political turbulence seriously. As one survey after another has shown, including our own coverage of why business leaders fear that higher capital gains tax would stifle investment, confidence is hard won and quickly lost.
For now, the message from the shop floor and the spare-room office alike is one of caution. Britain’s job creators are not waiting to be reassured, they are bracing for impact.