Business

Britain’s largest online retailer has waded into one of the most uncomfortable debates in Westminster and the boardroom: who, exactly, is to blame for almost a million young people sitting outside the labour market?

The answer, according to Amazon’s UK country manager John Boumphrey, is not the young people themselves.

In a candid interview with the BBC’s Big Boss series, Boumphrey said the prevailing narrative that Generation Z lacks motivation, resilience or grit simply does not square with what his managers see on the warehouse floor. “We have to stop blaming young people,” he said, arguing that the education system is no longer “producing young people who are ready for work”.

Coming from the man who runs an operation employing 75,000 people across roughly 100 UK sites — half of them recruited straight out of school, college or unemployment — the intervention will sting employers who have spent the past 18 months grumbling about a “soft” younger workforce.

A million reasons to pay attention

The numbers behind Boumphrey’s comments are sobering. Almost a million 16- to 24-year-olds in the UK are now classified as NEET — not in education, employment or training — a figure that has hovered uncomfortably close to seven-figure territory for more than a year, according to the Office for National Statistics. At the same time, the headline unemployment rate ticked up to 5 per cent in the three months to March, from 4.9 per cent a month earlier.

For SME owners, who account for the lion’s share of first jobs in Britain, the picture is grimmer still. Hospitality has retrenched, graduate schemes have thinned and entry-level vacancies in retail have collapsed, leaving fewer of the rungs school leavers traditionally use to climb into work. Business Matters has tracked the trend through the year, including in our recent report on how the NEET rate is closing in on the one-million mark.

Boumphrey’s argument is that the diagnosis matters. “I think too often you read about young people that somehow they lack motivation, they lack resilience, they lack the will to develop skills,” he said. “That is not our experience. We work with some individuals who are probably furthest from work and that’s where we actually see the biggest transformation.”

The case for compulsory work experience

His proposed remedy is unfashionably practical: make a stint of work experience mandatory for every over-16 in the country.

He argues that even a single week on a real shop floor, in a logistics hub or in an office teaches the soft skills schools struggle to deliver. “If you get a T-level student, they come in for a week, they understand the value of teamwork, of communication and problem solving,” he said. “It’s not a motivation problem, it’s a system problem, and that requires a system response.”

The T-level itself, introduced in 2020 and structured around a mandatory industry placement of at least 315 hours, has been quietly absorbed by larger employers but remains a foreign concept to many smaller firms. As Business Matters has set out before, T-levels carry real upside for SME employers willing to host a placement, not least because they create a low-risk pipeline of pre-trained recruits.

The Amazon paradox

The irony, Boumphrey concedes, is that his own business cannot find enough of the workers it needs. Amazon has just over 100 premises in the UK, including 30 fulfilment centres, and is on course to add several more on the back of its £40bn UK expansion programme. Yet roles built around its newer robotic infrastructure — mechatronics engineers, robotics technicians, maintenance specialists — sit stubbornly unfilled.

“When Amazon introduced robots into its warehouses there was some concern they would replace people,” he said. “Actually, the reverse happened. We ended up employing more people. Mechatronics engineers, people who can actually maintain the robots, people who are technicians, they’re not roles that exist. We can’t find enough people to fill those roles.”

His proposed fix is regional and collaborative: business, local authorities and further education colleges sitting around the same table to map skills gaps in each travel-to-work area, rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all national curriculum.

Tax, scale and the political subtext

The Amazon UK boss could hardly avoid the perennial question of tax, given the group’s scale and its political profile. He claimed the company contributed “more than £5.8bn” in the UK last year and insisted Amazon pays “all the tax we’re meant to pay”. The wider contribution, he argued, must also be measured in the 75,000 jobs the company underwrites.

Amazon now accounts for roughly 30 per cent of all online sales in the UK and, earlier this year, overtook Walmart as the world’s largest company by annual revenue. That scale gives Boumphrey a louder microphone than most when he tells policymakers and fellow employers that the country’s youth jobs problem is structural, not generational.

For SME owners watching from the sidelines, the takeaway is uncomfortable but useful. The labour market is not short of young people who want to work. It is short of pathways that prepare them to do so — and, increasingly, short of employers prepared to build those pathways themselves.

Read more:
Blame the system, not the school leavers for youth unemployment, says Amazon’s UK boss

British families planning a getaway this summer could find the cost of flying creeping up again, after it emerged that Treasury officials are quietly drawing up plans for a £1bn VAT raid on the fees airports charge airlines, a move the industry has branded a stealth tax on holidaymakers and exporters alike.

The proposals, being worked up inside HMRC, would impose the standard 20 per cent rate of VAT on top of the per-passenger charges levied by airports such as Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester for the use of runways, terminals and ground services. Those fees are almost always passed straight through to passengers in the ticket price, meaning the burden would land squarely on travellers and the small and medium-sized businesses that depend on affordable air travel to reach overseas customers.

At Heathrow, where the regulated charge currently sits at around £24 a head, the change would add close to £5 to the cost of every passenger — before a single penny of Air Passenger Duty, fuel surcharge or booking fee has been added. The official APD rates published by HMRC already range from £15 to £106 for an economy seat depending on distance, and rose again from April under increases pencilled in at the Autumn Budget.

A retrospective sting

What is alarming airlines and airports most is not just the prospect of a new levy, but the possibility that Whitehall might backdate it. Industry sources tell Business Matters that ministers are exploring whether to apply the charge as far back as four years, the maximum permitted under current legislation, generating an immediate windfall for the Exchequer running to around £1bn from Heathrow alone.

Heathrow generated £1.13bn in revenue from passenger charges last year, while Gatwick reported £607m and Manchester Airports Group, owner of Manchester and Stansted, recorded £470m. Factoring in smaller hubs, the total VAT take could comfortably top £1.5bn, although officials have yet to clarify whether the tax would bite on both outbound and inbound legs.

One airline industry insider described the plan as “a stealth tax on families at a time when the cost-of-living crisis means many people are already struggling to afford a holiday”. The warning lands alongside fresh evidence that Britons are already tightening their belts on travel, Barclays data recently showed holiday spending falling for the first time since the pandemic as cost-of-living and Iran conflict fears bite.

Reeves giveth, HMRC taketh away

The disclosure could hardly come at a more awkward moment for the Chancellor. Even as her officials sharpen the pencil on aviation VAT, Rachel Reeves was on her feet in the Commons unveiling a £1bn cost-of-living package designed to take the sting out of the school summer holidays.

From 25 June to 1 September, theme parks, zoos, museums, cinemas, soft play centres and theatres will charge a reduced 5 per cent rate of VAT in place of the usual 20 per cent. Children’s meals are included in the cut, which the Treasury values at £300m. The Government claims the measure will shave £20 off a theme-park day out for a family of four, £1.50 off cinema tickets and £2 off a family meal.

Fuel duty will be frozen for the rest of the year, free bus travel will be offered to children throughout August, and import taxes have been trimmed on a basket of staple foods. The energy-intensive chemicals and ceramics sectors, meanwhile, will share a £470m lifeline aimed at protecting jobs in some of the country’s most exposed manufacturing hubs.

Ms Reeves told MPs the package would be paid for by raising “hundreds of millions of pounds a year” from oil and gas majors such as BP and Shell, with the Office for Budget Responsibility due to assess the impact at the autumn fiscal event. Broader support on household energy bills was held in reserve, with the Chancellor signalling that targeted help would follow in the autumn “if bills continue to rise”.

The hospitality and visitor economy were quick to welcome the move. Fiona Eastwood, chief executive of Merlin Entertainments, which operates Alton Towers and Legoland, confirmed the discounted rate would apply to both admission tickets and children’s meals. Kate Nicholls, chair of UKHospitality, said it was “the quickest and simplest way to lower prices and boost consumer confidence”.

Aviation cries foul

The aviation sector, however, is in no mood to applaud. An Airlines UK spokesman said: “The UK is already one of the most overtaxed aviation markets in the world and, as the cost burden increases, we risk becoming even more uncompetitive. The only people cheering a move like this would be those running rival airports overseas.”

Industry analysis backs the point. The Office for Budget Responsibility already forecasts APD will raise close to £5bn a year by the end of the decade, while Airlines UK research suggests mandatory taxes can account for as much as half the price of an off-peak short-haul ticket. Bolting VAT on to airport charges would compound a tax burden that low-cost carriers say is already pushing routes, and the SME-friendly connectivity that comes with them, into mainland Europe.

Andrew Griffith, the shadow business secretary, was blunter still: “Any additional tax on aviation is a tax on doing business, a brake on exports or an attack on hard-working families. No government on the side of growth would indulge this idea.”

The proposals may also collide with international aviation rules, which broadly exempt airfares from VAT. Heathrow is understood to be taking specialist tax advice, while one industry source characterised the work inside HMRC as a “fishing trip” by officials looking for new revenue. “It’s a very technical conversation, with HMRC trying to work out if they can capture additional tax revenue,” the source said. “The question is whether it’s going to move forward and, if it does, whether it is going to hit passengers.”

What it means for SMEs

For Britain’s small and mid-sized businesses, the stakes are real. Air freight, sales travel and trade-show attendance all sit downstream of airport economics, and any uplift in landing charges feeds quickly into per-trip costs. It is also the second time in twelve months that the regulator has tangled with the Heathrow pricing model, earlier this year Heathrow was forced into a bigger cut of passenger landing fees by the Civil Aviation Authority, capping charges below the level the airport had sought.

Airports are unlikely to absorb a new VAT charge in-house. Heathrow has been lobbying loudly for measures to restore competitiveness, including the reinstatement of VAT-free shopping for international visitors, warning that the UK is losing ground to European rivals on tax. Adding a fresh 20 per cent layer to its core regulated charge would, the airport believes, run directly counter to the Government’s own growth narrative.

A government spokesman insisted there was no formal policy change in train, telling reporters: “The Government is not considering any changes to tax rules in this area. HMRC routinely engage businesses on how existing tax rules are being applied.”

That is unlikely to settle nerves in boardrooms in West London or aboard the airlines. For now, families booking summer flights can enjoy a temporary VAT cut at the theme-park turnstile, but the smart money in the aviation lobby is on a rather chillier autumn at the airport check-in desk.

Read more:
Labour eyes £1bn VAT raid on airport charges in stealth blow to family holidays

After years of quiet desperation in Stoke-on-Trent, the kilns finally have something to celebrate. The government has unveiled a £120 million support package for the UK ceramics industry, ending a prolonged lobbying campaign by manufacturers and trade bodies who had warned that one of Britain’s oldest industrial sectors was being allowed to slip away.

The funding, announced by business secretary Peter Kyle alongside chancellor Rachel Reeves, is split evenly: £60 million in capital grants to help manufacturers invest in new equipment, energy efficiency and decarbonisation, and a further £60 million to ease the punishing operational costs that have brought several household names to their knees. Eligible firms across refractory products, clay building materials, household ceramics and technical ceramics will be able to apply when the scheme opens later this summer, according to the official announcement from the Department for Business and Trade.

For Rob Flello, chief executive of trade body Ceramics UK, the package is vindication of a campaign that has at times felt like shouting into a void. He said he was “delighted” with the decision, calling it “a fantastic recognition of the importance of the UK ceramics industry,” and confirmed that Ceramics UK had been asked to work directly with civil servants on the scheme’s design and delivery.

“We’ve got manufacturers that have been around for many hundreds of years,” Flello added. “We want to have manufacturers that are around for the next few hundred years. It’s really about making sure this money is spent wisely and well, and achieves the maximum potential it can.”

He conceded the funding had come too late for some firms, but said it had been “long fought for” and represented a hard-won breakthrough after sustained lobbying.

A sector hit by every conceivable headwind

The relief, while substantial, lands on an industry that has been battered by an unusually brutal cocktail of pressures. Gas accounts for roughly 90 per cent of the energy consumed in ceramics production, a structural reliance that has left the sector painfully exposed to the price shocks triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Previous government support targeted largely at electricity bills, manufacturers complain, has offered only marginal relief.

That frustration has been simmering for some time. Earlier this year, the trade union GMB publicly criticised the design of the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme, arguing that ceramics and brickmaking had been overlooked in favour of electricity-intensive industries — a perceived snub that galvanised the lobbying effort behind the new package.

The damage of the past few years is visible across north Staffordshire. The number of ceramics firms in the area has fallen from 137 in 2018 to 123 in 2024, according to research commissioned by Stoke-on-Trent City Council and compiled by Kada and Ortus Economic Research. Denby Pottery in Derbyshire entered administration earlier this year, citing rising energy and labour costs; manufacturing at the site ceased in April with the loss of more than 100 jobs. Royal Stafford has also collapsed. Moorcroft, the storied Stoke-on-Trent maker, only survived after being rescued by its founder’s grandson last year.

Iain Martin, chief executive of Emma Bridgewater, whose own business has absorbed a £1.4 million loss against the backdrop of soaring input costs, described the announcement as “positive” after a long run of bad news.

“We’re very grateful for any support we can get,” he said. The industry, he added, had faced “quite severe headwinds in the past few years” around energy costs, labour costs and competition from overseas. “This represents a very welcome support from the government, which I think the whole industry will be very pleased with.”

He noted that “significant British brands” had “fallen over” in recent times. “There are 120 brands left and we have a future,” he said. “The money can’t come soon enough really.”

Why Whitehall blinked

The political calculation behind the funding is not difficult to read. Rachel Reeves and Peter Kyle have framed the package as part of a wider commitment to economic resilience and to safeguarding the industrial base that supplies sectors regarded as strategically critical.

“At a time of global uncertainty it’s never been more important to ensure Britain’s resilience and back the industries our country depends on,” Kyle said. “This funding will support thousands of jobs and put businesses on a secure footing for the long term.”

Reeves echoed the point, noting that “the chemicals and ceramics industries underpin our economic resilience and support skilled jobs across the UK.” The wider announcement also included £350 million for the chemicals sector, reflecting concern in the Treasury that energy-intensive manufacturing in Britain has been quietly losing ground to European rivals.

The research commissioned by Stoke-on-Trent City Council made the case bluntly: ceramics is a “vital component” of supply chains across aerospace, defence, clean energy and electronics. Advanced and technical ceramics, sanitaryware and refractory products have seen net company worth rise since 2018, with supply chain turnover up 35 per cent between 2018 and 2024 — a reminder that, properly supported, this is far from a sunset industry.

The campaign to secure the support extended well beyond Westminster. The GMB had previously pushed ministers to showcase UK pottery in British embassies worldwide, a piece of soft-power advocacy that helped keep the sector’s plight on the political agenda.

What happens next

Attention now turns to the detail. Flello and Ceramics UK will spend the coming weeks working with officials on the application process, the eligibility thresholds, and how the £60 million capital pot will be apportioned between firms still investing for the long term and those simply trying to keep the lights on.

The mood among manufacturers remains cautious. Few in Stoke-on-Trent believe £120 million alone solves a problem that has been a generation in the making, and structural questions about UK industrial gas pricing remain unresolved. But for the first time in several years, the country’s ceramics industry has reason to believe it has been heard.

“I’m really delighted for the industry,” said Flello. “I can’t wait to get sleeves rolled up and work out how we’re going to spend it.”

Read more:
Potters win £120m rescue as government finally backs Britain’s ceramics heartland

The founder of 4Networking lost a £2 million business in an afternoon, then spent four years being smeared online by a woman he had met for 30 seconds.

In an unflinching conversation with Richard Alvin, he describes the four seconds that nearly ended it all, and the platform failures he now wants the next Secretary of State to put right.

There is a moment, about twenty minutes into our conversation, when Brad Burton goes very still. We are talking about the period in 2022 when his business had collapsed, his stalker was posting fifteen lies a day across LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram and X, and the platforms were responding to his complaints with cut-and-paste boilerplate. He is sitting at his desk in Somerset, the same desk he sat at then.

“Four seconds,” he says. “For four seconds, I thought I can’t do this anymore.” He pauses. “Luckily those four seconds happened when I was sat at my desk, as in another setting the outcome might have been different, either way it motivated me to go to the doctors and get some antidepressants. Hadn’t done them for 25 years. That just shows you how severe this was.”

It is a remark, delivered in the matter-of-fact Salford cadence familiar to anyone who has ever booked Burton for a keynote, that reframes the whole interview. Britain’s self-styled “number one motivational speaker”, the man who built 4Networking from a £25,000 debt and a pile of pizza delivery sheets in 2006 into the country’s largest face-to-face business network — was, on his own admission, four seconds from a very different ending.

We had sat down for the latest edition of the ‘In Conversation Podcast’ to talk about three things, all of them, in his view, urgent for anyone running a small business in 2026: how you rebuild when turnover goes to zero with no playbook; what happens when the professional platform you have anchored your reputation to stops protecting you; and what resilience, mental, financial, reputational, actually looks like on the other side. They proved to be the same story.

From £2.3 million to nought in a single afternoon

The first collapse was televised. On 20 March 2020, with 4Networking turning over £2.3 million a year at its peak and running 5,000 face-to-face breakfast meetings in Premier Inns and Brewers Fayre up and down the country, Boris Johnson told the country to stay at home.

“When you’re running 5,000 networking meetings in Brewers Fayres and Holiday Inn Expresses up and down the land, that’s a problem,” Burton says, with characteristic understatement. The original assumption that “this will be a short pause, we’ll be back”, turned into a “dance of the seven veils”, a fortnightly extension that he believes did more damage than honesty would have.

Burton’s response was to invoke what he calls his 24/24/24 framework. “If I can’t make a decision in 24 seconds, revisit in 24 minutes. If after 24 minutes I can’t make a decision, I revisit in 24 hours. If after 24 hours I can’t make a decision, I’ve just made a decision, it’s not important. Next.” Within days, 4Networking had become the first network in the country to move wholesale onto Zoom, under the banner 4N Online. He calls it “drawing a picture of a sandwich when you’re hungry”, a holding measure rather than a substitute. He exited the company in 2022.

That should have been the story: a textbook British SME pivot, a clean founder exit, a man in his early fifties moving on to keynotes and books. It was not.

Thirty seconds at Aston Villa

In January 2019, at one of Burton’s personal development events at Aston Villa Football Club, a woman in an audience of around 200 was introduced to him by a mutual contact and asked for a selfie. The exchange lasted less than a minute. Her name was Sam Wall.

A year later, with Britain locked down and Burton’s identity as the country’s networking-in-chief evaporating in real time, Wall began posting on social media. The first post was vague; the second referenced “a high-profile speaker”; the third named him. Within days she had 30,000 LinkedIn followers, more than Burton’s own, and was alleging he had given her death threats, poisoned her cat, slashed her tyres and put a tracker on her car. Burton was 200 miles away in Somerset throughout lockdown.

“I was 200 miles away in lockdown and being accused of poisoning her cat — and Linkedin did nothing”

“People don’t do checks and measures on social media,” he says. “It was a modern-day witch hunt. I was guilty until proven innocent.” A cease-and-desist letter, served at a cost of £3,000, was promptly photographed and posted to her feed beneath the caption: “I’m not allowing this guy to bully me into submission.” Supporters cheered her on. Speaking engagements began to be quietly cancelled. Family members were drawn in.

The legal road, when he finally took it, was as slow as it was bruising. A statement given at Taunton police station vanished from the system. Wall was arrested, bailed for 30 days, “30 days of peace”, and resumed her campaign, in Burton’s recollection, “30 days and 10 minutes later”. She forged what purported to be a stalker protection order against him and posted it online. She wrote a 22,000-word article about him on LinkedIn. By his own count, she made roughly 500 posts about him across the major platforms over four years.

In March 2025, the case finally reached a national audience. BBC Panorama broadcast My Online Stalker, presented by Darragh MacIntyre, with Burton and the Manchester tech entrepreneur Naomi Timperley as its central voices. Channel 4’s Social Media Monsters followed with a second-episode treatment of the same case. ITV covered the sentencing. In October 2025, at Minshull Street Crown Court, Sam Wall was jailed for 28 months for what Judge Neil Usher described as a “prolonged, deliberate and calculated” campaign and an “unrelenting barrage” that was “breathtaking” in its scope.

Burton’s case is one of the fewer than two per cent of stalking complaints in this country that result in a conviction.

“There is no leadership at LinkedIn”

It is the response of the platforms, and one platform in particular, that animates him now. Wall’s LinkedIn account, as of publication, remains live, and so does much of the content she posted about him. Business Matters has previously reported on the mounting pressure on LinkedIn to act.

“We contacted LinkedIn legals. We contacted support. We tagged in everybody,” Burton says. “Not a single piece of content came down. We had people from America come on Zoom calls, they wouldn’t even turn the cameras on, saying, ‘She’s not doing anything illegal.’ I said, ‘What happens if she gets convicted?’ They said, ‘If she gets convicted, do let us know and we’ll see what we can do.’ So guess what? We let them know. They did nothing about it.”

Top-tier legal advice, he says, surfaced a structural problem: LinkedIn hides behind European law jurisdictionally rooted in Ireland and corporate decision-making rooted in California. “They’ve got this double moat. Nobody wanted to champion it.” Reporting Wall’s account, by design, blocked the reporter from her output rather than removing it. “That’s not a solution.”

If he had ten minutes with the Secretary of State and LinkedIn’s UK MD, what would he ask for? “Imagine if on your platform, I called you this, and I said this about your family. Would you ignore it and block me? Or would you make some changes and get me off the platform? That is exactly what should have happened here. Your business is people, and that’s the bit that’s been lost.” He goes further: there is, he says, “no leadership” at the UK level. “Nobody stepped forward and said, ‘I’m the UK managing director. I’m going to sort this crap.’”

It is a critique that lands at a moment when the regulatory tide is turning. The Online Safety Act is reshaping platform obligations in the UK, and stalking prosecutions, although still woefully low against a high base of reported offences, are at a record high. Burton’s case is the gap between the law and its enforcement made flesh.

Building the antidote

What Burton always does, and is doing again, is build. His new venture, Motivational Business Network, has opened for paid membership at £75 a month, vetted, deliberately slow, and capped at the kind of room size where, as he puts it, “you go and put yourself in a room with 50 people who are on side and positive, and tell me that’s a waste of time.”

The product cue is something called Shine: every member receives 100 daily “Shine points” they can award to others for genuine help, the awards visible on a member’s profile as social proof. “When everyone’s shouting, no one’s listening,” he says. “We’ve got to start getting quieter. We’ve got to start talking again. Less AI, more human.”

He pauses, the Salford grin back in place. “When I built 4Networking, it was a wobbly Jenga tower. This time we’re building it slow, methodical. No rush. Let’s get it right, not right now, which goes 100 per cent against everything I’ve ever done.”

For a man who came within four seconds of a different outcome, “right, not right now” sounds less like a strapline and more like a hard-won operating principle. British business, and the platforms that profess to serve it, would do well to take the note.

Read more:
Brad Burton interview: how the UK’s no.1 motivational speaker rebuilt after lockdown wiped out 4Networking, and survived a four-year online stalking campaign

The Government’s headline-grabbing summer VAT giveaway has been dismissed as politically convenient window-dressing by the head of the UK’s night-time economy trade body, who argues that the country’s clubs, festivals and live music venues have once again been left to fend for themselves.

Michael Kill, chief executive of the Night Time Industries Association (NTIA), launched a withering critique of the Great British Summer Savings scheme unveiled by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, which slashes VAT from 20 per cent to 5 per cent on a narrow band of family attractions, including theme parks, zoos, museums, children’s cinema tickets and kids’ meals, between 25 June and 1 September. The cut, ministers say, is designed to help households afford summer days out and bolster the hospitality sector through its peak trading window.

For an industry that has watched roughly a third of the country’s nightclubs disappear since 2017, however, the measure looks less like a lifeline and more like a snub. The full details of the chancellor’s family-focused VAT package made no mention of the late-night venues, festivals or grassroots music spaces that have been pleading for sector-wide tax relief for the better part of a decade.

“The Government’s latest VAT announcement is not just a missed opportunity, it is a glaring example of short-term thinking and a fundamental misunderstanding of the UK’s leisure and cultural economy,” Kill said. “While positioning this as support for families, the policy completely overlooks and effectively sidelines the night-time economy, including festivals, clubs, live music venues and late-night cultural spaces that have been fighting to survive under relentless financial pressure.”

A backbone, not a footnote

Kill’s frustration is rooted in hard numbers. NTIA data shows the UK lost roughly 1,940 licensed clubs between 2015 and 2025, a 26 per cent decline, while 26 per cent of British towns that previously had at least one nightclub now have none at all. Industry research published earlier this year warned that, without urgent intervention, Britain risks losing 10,000 late-night venues and 150,000 jobs by 2028.

The festival circuit is faring little better. More than 40 UK festivals were scrapped in 2024, with a similar tally lost in 2025 and a fresh wave of 2026 cancellations, including Red Rooster, Stone Valley South and WestworldFest, already announced as operators buckle under soaring production costs, post-pandemic debt and softer ticket sales.

“These businesses are not peripheral, they are the backbone of the UK’s global cultural reputation and a critical driver of jobs, tourism and economic activity,” Kill argued. “For years, we have consistently lobbied for a fair and meaningful reduction in VAT across hospitality, live events and cultural experiences. Instead, what we have been given is a narrow, temporary measure that cherry-picks certain activities while leaving the rest of the sector to absorb rising costs, punitive tax burdens and ongoing instability.”

The trade body has repeatedly pressed Treasury ministers for a permanent VAT cut from 20 to 10 per cent across hospitality and the cultural sector, a campaign that has gathered momentum after a string of nightclub closures prompted renewed calls for action.

Squeezed at every turn

Operators say the picture on the ground is bleak. April’s business rates reforms removed the 40 per cent Hospitality, Leisure and Night-Time Relief, pushing the typical rates bill for a £100,000 rateable-value venue from £28,800 to roughly £43,000. Combined with higher employer National Insurance contributions, a steeper National Living Wage and double-digit increases in utilities, the cumulative cost burden has tipped many otherwise viable businesses into the red.

A recent New Statesman investigation into the policies killing Britain’s nightlife painted a similarly grim picture, charting how successive Westminster decisions, from licensing reform to tax tinkering, have hollowed out the cultural infrastructure of British towns and cities.

“Festivals are being squeezed to breaking point. Grassroots venues are closing at an alarming rate. Clubs and late-night operators are facing unsustainable operating conditions,” Kill said. “And yet, once again, they have been completely sideswiped by policy that claims to support leisure and participation.”

A test of credibility

The political calculation behind the Great British Summer Savings scheme is straightforward. A targeted, family-friendly cut delivers a punchy headline, plays well with voters facing another stretched school holiday and concentrates the Treasury’s fiscal firepower on a tightly bounded window. The trouble, as Kill sees it, is that such tactical interventions cannot substitute for a coherent strategy.

“This is not just short-sighted, it is economically reckless,” he warned. “You cannot claim to support the visitor economy, regional growth and cultural output while actively ignoring the sectors that deliver it at scale. If the Government is serious about growth, it must stop delivering piecemeal, headline-driven interventions and start engaging with the full reality of the industries it relies on. That means meaningful VAT reform, long-term policy stability and a commitment to supporting the entire ecosystem, not just the parts that are politically convenient.”

Until then, Kill concluded, the summer VAT cut “will be seen for what it is: a superficial fix that fails the very industries it should be backing.”

For SME operators across hospitality and the cultural economy, the message from Whitehall is becoming uncomfortably familiar. The headline is generous; the small print is not.

Read more:
Nightlife chief brands Chancellor’s summer VAT cut a ‘superficial fix’ that abandons clubs and festivals

Rachel Reeves has rolled out a package of consumer-facing tax cuts in a bid to put more cash in family pockets and breathe life back into Britain’s battered high streets, with the centrepiece a temporary VAT reduction on summer attractions designed to keep tills ringing through the holidays.

In a statement that drew rare applause from the hospitality lobby, the Chancellor confirmed that VAT on a swathe of family activities will fall from 20 per cent to 5 per cent under a new “Great British Summer Saving Scheme”. The reduced rate will apply to fairs, zoos, museums, cinemas and children’s meals in restaurants, running from the start of the Scottish school holidays on 25 July through to early September.

Reeves also ruled out the long-trailed rise in fuel duty, suspended tariffs on more than 100 supermarket food lines and lifted the tax-free mileage allowance by 10p per mile, backdated to April 2026. Free local bus travel for children aged five to 15 will operate throughout August in England, in what the Treasury framed as a co-ordinated push to ease pressure on households during the school break. Full eligibility criteria for the scheme have been published by the Treasury.

The measures land at a critical moment for the country’s small-business community, particularly the hospitality and leisure operators who have spent the past three years absorbing rising wage bills, energy costs and business rates. As Business Matters has reported, trade bodies have warned of a “tidal wave” of closures unless ministers act, with three pubs and restaurants shutting their doors every day so far this year.

A lifeline for the high street

Michelle Ovens CBE, chief executive and founder of Small Business Britain, welcomed the move as a timely intervention before the all-important summer trading quarter. “It’s encouraging to see the Chancellor’s commitment to a summer of savings with the VAT cut on children’s meals,” she said. “Providing an important boost for small businesses during the summer period, helping to drive footfall and ease pressure on margins at a crucial time of year. As many businesses prepare to enter the most important trading quarter of the year, measures that support both families and local high streets are incredibly welcome.”

Ovens added that the package was “essential in combating the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, particularly during the summer holidays when financial pressures and childcare commitments can intensify without the support schools often provide”.

The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) echoed the sentiment but with sharper edges. Tina McKenzie, the FSB’s policy chair, said the timing could not be more urgent for an industry running on fumes. “Anything that helps get families out spending this summer is good news for the restaurants, pubs, soft plays and attractions that have spent years fighting rising costs and shrinking margins,” she said. “With 44 per cent of small hospitality firms based on or near the high street, a VAT cut should help put bums on seats and bring life into our town centres this summer.”

McKenzie pointed to a domestic tourism uplift as cash-strapped families switch out of foreign holidays. “Families will make extra purchases, such as drinks and merchandise, which is likely to be the biggest help to small businesses’ bottom lines,” she added.

Confidence in critical condition

The numbers behind the announcement make uncomfortable reading. According to the FSB, 94 per cent of small hospitality firms saw their costs rise in the last three months, with tax cited as one of the biggest drivers by 61 per cent of operators. A further 35 per cent expect to contract over the coming year, a figure that helps explain why this temporary VAT cut, while welcome, is unlikely to satisfy a sector that has long campaigned for a permanent reduction.

Kate Nicholls, chair of UKHospitality, which has lobbied for years for a lower headline rate, said it was “good to see the Government recognise the importance of a lower VAT rate for hospitality as the quickest and simplest way to lower prices and boost consumer confidence”. The trade body has consistently argued that aligning the UK’s rate with European competitors would stimulate jobs and investment well beyond the summer window.

For now, however, ministers have stopped short of that wider reset. The Treasury has costed the scheme at roughly £300 million, a modest sum against the backdrop of the wider Budget arithmetic, but enough, the Chancellor hopes, to keep the lights on in pubs, cafés and family attractions through what one operator described to Business Matters as “make-or-break months”.

The fuel duty freeze and 10p mileage uplift, meanwhile, address a separate but related pressure point. Rising pump prices have been squeezing tradespeople, hauliers and rural firms with no realistic alternative to the van or the car, an issue previously highlighted as a slow-burning crisis for the SME economy.

A summer test

Whether the package delivers will depend on whether smaller operators can pass the VAT saving through to customers quickly and visibly, and whether families respond. “A strong summer could be the difference between staying afloat and shutting up shop for some businesses,” McKenzie warned.

For the Chancellor, the political calculation is straightforward: a summer of cheaper days out, full coach parks and busy seaside arcades is a far easier sell on the doorstep than another quarter of grim closure headlines. For Britain’s small businesses, it is a chance, perhaps the last one this year, to turn footfall into cash flow.

As McKenzie put it, in a line that doubles as a plea: “As people plan summer days out, we’d urge them to back the small local pubs, cafés, attractions and hospitality venues that make our communities special.”

Read more:
Reeves serves up summer of savings with VAT cut on family days out

The traditional gear stick, that small, mechanical talisman of British motoring, is being quietly stripped out of new car ranges, and according to fresh forecasts it will be all but extinct by the end of the decade. The diesel engine, long the workhorse of the company car park, is heading for the same exit door.

Analysts at Vehicle Data Global (VDG) say the manual gearbox will disappear from mainstream UK showrooms inside the next three years, well ahead of the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles. Their argument is not sentimental; it is, as the report puts it bluntly, “hard economics”. Electric cars almost universally use single-speed automatic transmissions, and as the EV share climbs, manufacturers are increasingly reluctant to carry the research, development, certification and tooling overheads needed to keep manual variants on the price list for a shrinking pool of buyers.

For the UK’s small and medium-sized businesses, many of which still run mixed fleets of combustion and electrified vehicles, the implications are more than nostalgic. The transmission and fuel choices on offer over the next 36 months will reshape how SMEs specify company cars, train drivers, calculate residual values and plan capital expenditure on vans and pool vehicles.

The numbers behind the obituary

A market-wide review earlier this year found that just 23 per cent of new cars on UK forecourts now have a gear stick, down from roughly two-thirds a decade ago. Where buyers still have a genuine choice between manual and automatic on a petrol or diesel model, only 34 per cent opted for the manual in 2025, a sharp fall from 55 per cent as recently as 2019.

Diesel’s slide has been even more dramatic. Fewer than one in 20 new cars registered in 2026 (4.8 per cent) is a diesel, down from one in two just over a decade ago, according to the latest SMMT registration data. The reputational fallout from the 2015 emissions scandal, tightening clean-air zones and the rise of plug-in hybrids and pure EVs have all combined to push diesel out of the mainstream — a shift Business Matters has tracked in detail in its coverage of how British drivers are sending a “clear signal” in support of electric cars as petrol and diesel sales nosedive.

Ben Hermer, operations director at VDG, summed up the manufacturers’ calculus. “The moment is fast approaching when the economics of maintaining a manual transmission option don’t add up, given the R&D, certification and other overheads involved in developing and refining gearboxes, even if there remains some demand in the market,” he said. “Based on current trend data, between 5 and 10 per cent of cars will theoretically still be manual by 2030. But manufacturers will be looking hard at whether maintaining manual gearbox programmes for a shrinking share of the market makes economic sense.”

Analysis by CarGurus shows the squeeze in real time: just 67 of the 292 new models sold by the UK’s top 30 manufacturers are currently offered with a manual option, down from 197 models in 2016.

What it means for SME fleets and company car schemes

For finance directors and operations managers running small fleets, three practical consequences stand out.

First, residual values for manual diesels are likely to soften faster than the wider market as supply of replacement parts thins and used-buyer appetite narrows. Owner-managers approaching a vehicle refresh in 2027 or 2028 should not assume that today’s resale benchmarks will hold.

Second, driver training and recruitment policies will need a refresh. Auto-only licence holders cannot legally drive a manual car, and as Business Matters has previously reported in its business owner’s guide to volatile fleet costs in 2026, grey-fleet and pool-car policies are already a hidden compliance risk for many SMEs. With automatic-only learners now the fastest-growing segment of new drivers, employers will need to widen their definition of an “eligible driver”, or accept a shrinking talent pool.

Third, capital allowances, benefit-in-kind treatment and total-cost-of-ownership models will tilt sharply in favour of electrified vehicles. The 2030 ban is no longer a distant policy threat; it is a 36-month operational deadline that intersects directly with vehicle replacement cycles. SMEs that delay their transition planning risk being forced into a depleted second-hand market for manuals and diesels just as supply dries up.

Learners are already voting with their feet

The driving school sector is a leading indicator. Figures from the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency, set out in the DVSA Annual Report and Accounts 2024-25, show that of the 1,839,753 practical driving tests taken in 2024/25, some 479,556, 26.1 per cent, were in automatics. That is up from 23.4 per cent the previous year, 19.2 per cent in 2022/23 and a mere 6.9 per cent a decade earlier.

In other words, automatic tests have moved from fewer than one in 14 examinations ten years ago to more than one in four today, and trade body projections suggest the figure could touch a third by 2027.

Despite the popular belief that they are easier, pass rates in automatics remain stubbornly lower than for manuals: 43.9 per cent versus a 48.7 per cent overall average in the last fiscal year. The catch, of course, is that an auto-only licence is a one-way door. Holders are legally barred from manual cars, which can sting when hiring abroad in markets where stick-shift rentals still dominate and automatic surcharges remain steep.

The models still flying the flag

For motorists, and fleet buyers, who still want a third pedal, the choice is narrowing but not yet bare. Dacia leads the field, offering manual transmissions across its entire six-strong combustion range (only the Spring EV is auto-only). Ford, Hyundai, Kia, Skoda and Volkswagen all still field five or six manual options, while Porsche keeps a manual 911 in the catalogue as a halo product. Jaguar, Honda, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, Mini, Tesla, Land Rover and Volvo no longer offer a single manual variant in the UK.

Even Seat has thinned its line-up, with Ateca production ending in the past month. The direction of travel is unambiguous.

For SME owners weighing their next purchase, the message from VDG, the SMMT data and the DVSA’s own statistics is consistent: the era of the manual diesel, the so-called “motorway mile-muncher” beloved of sales reps under New Labour’s generous tax regime, is closing fast. The businesses that plan now for an auto-only, increasingly electrified fleet will be the ones least exposed when the showroom shutters finally come down on the gear stick.

Read more:
Manual gearboxes set to vanish by 2030 and diesel is tailgating its demise

The late Queen Elizabeth II was “very keen” that her second son, then the Duke of York, take on a “prominent role in the promotion of national interests” as the United Kingdom’s special representative for international trade and investment, according to confidential papers on his 2001 appointment released by Downing Street this week.

The cache of 11 files, published on Thursday following a successful Liberal Democrat motion in the Commons, sheds fresh light on how Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor came to occupy one of British business diplomacy’s most senior unpaid posts, a role he held for a decade and which has since become the focus of a Metropolitan Police criminal inquiry.

A royal recommendation, in writing

In a memorandum to the then-foreign secretary Robin Cook dated February 2000, Sir David Wright, the chief executive of British Trade International, the predecessor to today’s Department for Business and Trade, set out the palace’s thinking in unusually direct terms.

“The Queen’s wish is that the Duke of Kent should be succeeded in this role by the Duke of York,” Sir David wrote. “The Duke of Kent is to relinquish his responsibilities around April next year. That would fit well with the end of the Duke of York’s active naval career. The Queen is very keen that the Duke of York should take on a prominent role in the promotion of national interests.”

He added: “No other member of The Royal Family would be available to succeed the Duke of Kent. The Duke of York’s adoption of his role would seem a natural fit.”

For Whitehall officials charged with selling British plc abroad, the recommendation from Buckingham Palace was, in the language of the time, treated as decisive.

The envoy who preferred ‘sophisticated countries’

If the appointment had a regal sheen, the papers also reveal a markedly less flattering portrait of the working envoy. In a letter dated 25 January 2000, Kathryn Colvin, then head of the Foreign Office’s Protocol Division, recorded a briefing from the duke’s principal private secretary, Captain Neil Blair, on his employer’s travel preferences.

The ex-prince, the note records, “tended to prefer more sophisticated countries” and preferred “ballet over theatre”. Captain Blair also stipulated that “the Duke of York should not be offered golfing functions abroad. This was a private activity and if he took his clubs with him he would not play in any public sense”.

For an envoy whose taxpayer-funded brief was to open doors for British exporters in fast-growing emerging markets, the attitudes set out in the briefing will sit uncomfortably with the SME exporters who relied on the office to act as a battering ram into difficult jurisdictions. As former business secretary Sir Vince Cable noted earlier this year, the conduct of Andrew’s tenure deserves serious examination by investigators, not least because the role traded on the prestige of the Crown to win commercial advantage.

From soft power to criminal inquiry

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest on 19 February, his sixty-sixth birthday, has transformed what was once a footnote of royal soft power into a constitutional and commercial headache for the Government. The arrest followed allegations that the former envoy shared sensitive material with the late paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein during his time as trade representative.

Emails published by the US Department of Justice indicate that Andrew forwarded official reports of trips to Singapore, Hong Kong and Vietnam to Epstein in 2010 and 2011, within minutes of receiving them from his then special adviser. Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley has reportedly pressed US authorities to expedite the release of unredacted exchanges held in the wider Epstein files.

Detectives are understood to be considering whether to broaden the scope of their inquiry beyond the offence of misconduct in public office — a notoriously difficult charge to mount — to encompass potential corruption offences as well as alleged sex trafficking. Any prosecution will fall to the Crown Prosecution Service’s Special Crime Division, which handles the most sensitive matters.

Lord Peter Mandelson, the former business secretary and a mutual acquaintance of both men, was himself arrested following the release of the Epstein files in the United States, accused of having disclosed sensitive information. Both men deny any wrongdoing and have been released under investigation; both maintain they had no knowledge of Epstein’s crimes.

What it means for British business

For owner-managers and SME exporters, the readership Business Matters has championed for more than two decades, the documents matter for reasons that go well beyond royal soap opera.

The Special Representative for International Trade and Investment was, until 2011, the public face Britain put forward to court inward investors and to bang the drum for UK companies in capitals from Riyadh to Astana. It was, in effect, a brand. The newly-published file makes plain that the appointment process was driven less by a forensic assessment of commercial fit than by dynastic convenience and palace preference.

That has implications for how the present generation of trade envoys, and the export support architecture around them, is scrutinised. UK Export Finance has spent the past three years dramatically expanding its direct support for SME exporters, precisely because the soft-power model that underpinned the Andrew era proved fragile when its figurehead became politically toxic. The unwinding of Pitch@Palace, the ex-prince’s own start-up showcase, tells a similar story.

The Government’s decision to release the file, under duress from the Liberal Democrats and against the backdrop of an active criminal inquiry, as the BBC reported earlier this year, is a tacit acknowledgement that public confidence in the way British trade promotion was conducted at the turn of the century has not survived contact with the Epstein files. As RTÉ noted in its coverage of Thursday’s release, the documents arrived “just months after lawmakers accused the king’s brother of putting his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein ahead of the nation”.

For Britain’s exporters, the lesson from these dusty memoranda is brisk and uncomfortable: the credibility of UK trade promotion abroad now depends on transparent process, not royal patronage. The sooner Whitehall internalises that, the better for the businesses that pay its salaries.

Read more:
Andrew trade envoy files: Queen ‘very keen’ ex-prince led UK plc abroad, Whitehall papers reveal

Britain’s vending, coffee services and automated retail industry has quietly become one of the most resilient and technologically progressive corners of the UK economy, generating £3.78 billion in total revenue in 2025, according to the latest Census & Market Report from the Automatic Vending Association (AVA).

The figure represents year-on-year growth of 3.3% and leaves the sector trading 5% above its pre-pandemic 2019 baseline. Crucially, it has now comfortably outstripped the wider economy: the Office for National Statistics put annual UK GDP growth at just 1.4% for 2025. To put the scale of the sector into context, the UK’s machine-served food, drinks and snacks industry is now larger than the country’s entire biomass and hydroelectric generation industries combined.

For SME operators, who make up the backbone of the trade, the headline figures are even more encouraging. Traditional Vending and Office Coffee Service (OCS) revenues together reached £3.13 billion, with product revenues climbing 6.8% year-on-year to £2.28 billion — nearly 10% above pre-Covid levels. Average operator revenues rose by 7% on the year, and 90% are forecasting further growth in 2026.

Category by category, the numbers tell their own story

Cold beverage revenues were up 15.4%, food rose 12.2%, snacks gained 5.7% and hot drinks added 4.1%. After a decade in which vending was repeatedly written off as a “tired” channel, almost every consumable category is now in positive territory.

Smart fridges: the breakout format

The standout story of the year is the standalone smart fridge, which grew by roughly 50% in twelve months to reach 2,850 units in the field. These cashless-by-design units open with a tap of a bank card or mobile app, then automatically charge customers for whatever they pick up, using a combination of RFID tags, weight sensors and onboard cameras.

Their rapid roll-out reflects a structural change in the British workplace. With staffed canteens increasingly uneconomic in offices where attendance fluctuates wildly through the week, operators are filling the gap with technology that runs 24/7 and requires no till. The format is benefitting directly from the rise of hybrid work models, which has fundamentally reshaped what corporate occupiers expect from their food and beverage provision.

Micro-markets — open-plan, self-checkout convenience stores typically installed in larger offices, are following a similar trajectory, with installations up 8% to 785 sites.

Cashless: 95% coverage and twice the spend

Perhaps the most striking commercial story sits inside the payment terminal. Cashless technology is now fitted to 95% of all pay-vend machines in the UK, up five percentage points on 2024, and around 30% of the estate now accepts no cash at all.

Of all transactions on cashless-enabled machines, 84% are now cashless, with 62% completed by mobile phone, up from a barely-there 8% in 2017. Chip-and-PIN, by contrast, has collapsed from 47% of cashless transactions in 2017 to just 3% today. The trajectory mirrors a wider consumer shift, with Britain having decisively opted to pay with phones as the value of banknotes in circulation slips.

The commercial case is, frankly, no longer arguable. Cashless customers spend on average 100% more per transaction than those paying with coins — a multiplier that has itself doubled since 2018. With regulators now consulting on whether contactless card limits could go unlimited, the gap between coin and card looks set to widen further still.

Premiumisation and the rise of the £2.89 cup

The Coffee-to-Go segment turned over £645 million from a base of 33,200 machines, an 8% increase in fleet size. Pricing tells the premiumisation story: the average Coffee-to-Go cup sells at £2.89, against just £0.56 for a traditional vended hot drink, a 5.2x premium that operators are increasingly able to justify by trading up the quality of the serve.

Bean-to-cup machines continue to take share within traditional vending, and over 40% of new tabletop machines now ship with fresh liquid milk modules to deliver barista-style drinks at the press of a button. On the responsibility side, the AVA reports that 80% of cold drinks now meet low-sugar health standards, while single-use plastic cups have all but disappeared from the channel.

A cloud over a sunny report

David Llewellyn, chief executive of the AVA, said the 2025 Census confirmed an industry that “has not simply recovered from Covid, it’s transformed in the process.” He added: “This industry has always been underestimated, and while the rest of retail has been struggling with customer demands, vending and automated retail has been quietly growing by investing in technology that actually aids customer experience, raising its game on quality, and finding new opportunities to shine.”

Llewellyn was less complimentary about Westminster. The government’s proposed ban on the sale of high-caffeine energy drinks to under-16s, he warned, risks “potentially catastrophic” damage to operators’ top lines. “All AVA members currently adhere to voluntary guidelines not to sell these drinks in publicly accessible machines, meaning no young people are able to access high caffeine options,” he said. “We urge the government to reconsider this action and continue supporting this positive growth industry in the UK.”

For an SME-dominated sector quietly outperforming the wider retail landscape and the UK economy as a whole, the message to policymakers is clear: legislate twice, measure once.

Read more:
UK vending and automated retail sector hits £3.78bn as smart fridges and cashless tech outpace the wider economy

The Treasury faces the unenviable task of plugging a shortfall of up to £33bn after ministers conceded that the latest reset of HS2 has driven the embattled rail project’s bill towards a staggering £102bn, leaving the chancellor with little choice but to raid other budgets, raise taxes, or both.

Analysis of the Department for Transport’s revised plans for the London-to-Birmingham line, published in the wake of transport secretary Heidi Alexander’s bruising statement to the Commons on Tuesday, suggests Whitehall will need to find between £18bn and £33bn of additional public money before the end of the current spending review period. For Britain’s beleaguered small and medium-sized businesses, many of whom were promised that HS2 would unlock regional growth and faster supply chains, it is yet another reminder that the country’s record on delivering major infrastructure remains, to put it mildly, patchy.

Alexander did not mince her words at the despatch box. She branded the line, originally intended to whisk passengers between London Euston and central Birmingham in under 50 minutes, an “over-specced folly” and accused her Conservative predecessors of needlessly gold-plating a scheme that has already swallowed £44bn of taxpayers’ cash over its 17-year existence. According to the official update delivered to Parliament, the first trains will not now run before 2036 at the earliest, with services into central London delayed until at least 2040, meaning construction will have stretched across more than a quarter of a century by the time the project is complete.

It is the sixth major reset HS2 has endured in just 13 years. The latest came after the so-called Stewart Review, commissioned by Labour shortly after it entered government in 2024, lifted the lid on what its author described as a “litany of failures” inside the Department for Transport and arms-length body HS2 Ltd, where management had been allowed to “spiral out of control”. The Institution of Civil Engineers’ assessment of the Stewart Review painted a damning picture of weak governance, optimism bias and a procurement strategy that left contractors holding too few of the risks, the sort of failings that any seasoned SME owner would recognise as fatal in their own business.

The numbers tell their own grim story. Officials now expect the line to cost as much as £36bn more than the previous official estimate, on top of the £25bn of additional taxpayer cash already earmarked at last year’s spending review. That leaves between £18bn and £33bn of unfunded spending sitting awkwardly on the Treasury’s books, money which will either have to come from fresh tax-and-spend measures, from cuts to other cash-strapped departments, or, most likely, from a combination of both. Sources familiar with the matter tell Business Matters that ministers have ruled out additional borrowing on the scale needed to plug the gap, fearful of breaching the government’s self-imposed fiscal rules.

For now, Whitehall insists the Treasury’s current envelope, which covers all public spending up to 2029-30, absorbs every penny HS2 requires this decade. The pain will instead be felt at the next spending review, when chancellor Rachel Reeves – or her successor – will have to decide which other priorities give way. Whether that means leaner settlements for schools, hospitals and policing, or whether the burden falls on business and household taxes, will be the defining fiscal battle of the late 2020s. Ms Reeves had previously hoped to anchor her growth strategy on a £92bn transport investment programme, much of which is now at risk of being crowded out by HS2’s voracious appetite for capital.

It also raises uncomfortable questions about the credibility of the cost figures that have been presented to Parliament over the past decade. The same Whitehall machinery that signed off on earlier estimates is now telling business leaders to take the new £102bn projection on trust, even as transport experts begin to whisper that the eventual bill could climb higher still. Business Matters recently reported that ministers had been actively considering slowing HS2 trains in a bid to claw back billions, a move that critics argue undermines the original rationale for the project in the first place.

The political backdrop is no less awkward. The line was originally conceived as a Y-shaped network connecting London to both Manchester and Leeds via Birmingham. Boris Johnson axed the eastern leg to Leeds in 2021; his successor Rishi Sunak then scrapped the Manchester arm two years later. Each cut was sold as a saving, yet the bill has continued to climb. As one senior figure with experience of past resets put it earlier this year, Conservative ministers had wasted billions on a project that was never properly gripped – a charge the party’s frontbench is now finding difficult to rebut.

For Britain’s SMEs, the implications are stark. Construction supply chains in the Midlands and along the line of route have ridden the rollercoaster of stop-start commitments for the best part of two decades. Manufacturers, engineering consultancies and specialist tier-two contractors had built order books on the assumption that phase two would, at the very least, run as far as Crewe. Many of those orders have evaporated. Meanwhile the broader business community is being asked to believe that the same Treasury now juggling a £33bn shortfall on a single project can still be trusted to underwrite the long-promised renaissance of regional infrastructure.

The lesson, painful as it is, is one that any owner-managed business learns in its first decade: budget overruns of this scale do not just happen. They are baked in at the start by woolly objectives, scope creep, weak commercial discipline and political interference. HS2 has had all four in industrial quantities. Until Westminster develops the institutional muscle to deliver megaprojects on time and on budget, British business will continue to pay the price, both directly, through taxes and forgone investment, and indirectly, through a global reputation for infrastructure delivery that is fast becoming a cautionary tale.

Read more:
HS2 reset to punch £33bn black hole in Britain’s public finances