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Is the government intent on killing London’s hospitality sector with a double-whammy tourist tax?
Business

Is the government intent on killing London’s hospitality sector with a double-whammy tourist tax?

by November 25, 2025

There was a time – not so long ago, though it already feels sepia-tinted – when London was the sort of place that tourists arrived in with stars in their eyes and left with shopping bags cutting off circulation at the fingers.

Harrods bags, Selfridges bags, Mulberry bags, the bright yellow of Fortnum’s peeking out of a suitcase being sat on in a hotel lobby. Europe’s favourite grown-up playground; Manhattan’s chic transatlantic sibling; Tokyo’s idea of European swagger with better tailoring and more chaotic restaurants.

And somehow, somewhere between the end of the pandemic and the beginning of whatever this new national habit of self-sabotage is, we decided that this was all terribly inconvenient.

Because now, instead of rolling out the red carpet to high-spending visitors who fund vast swathes of our hospitality and retail industries, we appear determined to trip them up with a series of policy banana skins. A kind of bureaucratic Mario Kart, except instead of cartoon plumbers skidding off Rainbow Road, it’s Andrea Baldo at Mulberry watching millions evaporate from his London tills.

First came the abolition of tax-free shopping, what the press politely calls the “tourist tax”, but business leaders now refer to in much the same tone one reserves for a wasp nest in the loft. It was, in the gentle phrasing of one retail boss, a “massive global disadvantage”. He’s not wrong. France woos Chinese visitors with instant VAT refunds at Charles de Gaulle, Italy practically hands tourists a Prosecco as they process theirs. Meanwhile, we greet them with the fiscal equivalent of a traffic warden in a foul mood.

Retail chiefs have been patient – or at least, as patient as you can be when pointing out, month after month, that the maths simply does not work. Tourists want the thrill of a VAT-free splurge. If we don’t offer it, they simply go elsewhere. Hence the growing chorus from the likes of Mulberry’s Baldo, who has watched London sales tank while Paris boutiques hum along nicely. It doesn’t take a PwC report to see what’s happening: shoppers follow value, and value has emigrated.

You might think the lesson here is obvious. If you want tourists, the big-spending sort who treat a long weekend as an Olympic sport, then don’t whack them with a levy the moment they land. You’d imagine, perhaps naively, that the next step would be to reverse the damage, or at least stop adding new obstacles.

But no. This is London. And in London, when there’s an opportunity to make a bad idea worse, we seize it with both hands and a press release.

Step forward Sadiq Khan, announcing with great flourish the potential introduction of a second tourist tax – a nightly levy on hotel stays that would, we are told, “supercharge London’s economy”. Which is an interesting definition of “supercharge”, unless we’ve started using the word to mean “ask people for more money so they spend less of it elsewhere”.

This proposed hotel levy, trumpeted as bringing the capital in line with other global cities, is the second punch in a one-two assault that the hospitality sector absolutely did not ask for. Because let’s be clear: London is not Barcelona, drowning in stag dos stripping in fountains. Nor is it Amsterdam, declaring war on the Hen Party Industrial Complex. London’s issue is not too many tourists — it’s that we are making ourselves unattractive to the ones we need.

Which is why the hospitality sector is looking a bit like a boxer in the 11th round, wobbling slightly, blood in the eye, muttering “Really? Another one?”

Hotels have only just crawled out of the Covid crater. Staffing costs up. Energy bills up. Supply chain madness. Then a visitor economy still recovering from the years when the only people checking into hotels were essential workers and couples pretending they were “working from home”. Revenues are fragile. Margins are thin. And now a city-hall-branded surcharge?

The timing is astonishing. Just as business travellers, the holy grail of midweek occupancy, begin to return… just as American tourists rediscover the joys of London theatre and pubs with carpets… just as Asia resumes sending coachloads of shoppers armed with Amex and enthusiasm… we decide to hand them a bill for having turned up at all.

What message does this send? The same as the VAT-refund fiasco: London is becoming the most expensive city in Europe to visit, and the least rewarding.

It is fundamentally a failure of imagination. Instead of asking “How do we compete?”, policymakers seem content to ask, “How much can we get away with before someone books Berlin instead?”

The answer, increasingly, is: not much.

Because tourists talk. They compare. They calculate. And when your long-haul holiday already costs thousands, and the pound is weak, and hotels are pricier than ever, that extra nightly charge isn’t symbolic – it’s irritating. Add in the lack of VAT refunds and suddenly a weekend that once felt like a treat becomes an exercise in fiscal masochism.

All this might be palatable if the revenue raised were earmarked for something dazzling — a transport revolution, a cultural renaissance, a hospitality uplift so extraordinary that visitors would queue to pay. But the rhetoric is vague, the benefits theoretical, and the impact on the ground immediate.

The truth is brutally simple: London thrives when it is welcoming, frictionless, rewarding and – crucially – competitive. What we have instead is a creeping perception that our leaders view tourists not as valued guests, but as walking wallets from which to extract just a bit more because, well, they can.

The hospitality and retail sectors don’t need another tax. They need policymakers who understand that the visitor economy is not a tap that can be turned on and off at whim. It is delicate, reactive, easily diverted.

Right now, we are steering it away.

London doesn’t need a second tourist tax. It needs a second thought.

Read more:
Is the government intent on killing London’s hospitality sector with a double-whammy tourist tax?

November 25, 2025
Sir Richard Branson announces death of his wife Joan after 50 years of marriage
Business

Sir Richard Branson announces death of his wife Joan after 50 years of marriage

by November 25, 2025

Sir Richard Branson has announced the death of his wife, Joan Branson, sharing a heartfelt tribute on Instagram confirming she has passed away after their 50 years together.

The Virgin founder described Joan as his “best friend” and “guiding light”, paying tribute to her role at the centre of the Branson family.

“Heartbroken to share that Joan, my wife and partner for 50 years, has passed away,” he wrote. “She was the most wonderful mum and grandmum our kids and grandkids could have ever wished for. She was my best friend, my rock, my guiding light, my world. Love you forever, Joan x.”

Joan Branson, née Templeman, married Sir Richard in 1989 after meeting in the 1970s, and the couple went on to build a family life intertwined with the global growth of the Virgin brand. They shared two children and several grandchildren.

Messages of condolence from across the business and philanthropic world have begun to pour in, recognising Joan’s quiet but influential presence alongside one of Britain’s most high-profile entrepreneurs.

Virgin Group has not yet released a further statement, and the Branson family has asked for privacy.

Read more:
Sir Richard Branson announces death of his wife Joan after 50 years of marriage

November 25, 2025
AI could replace half of American jobs, McKinsey warns
Business

AI could replace half of American jobs, McKinsey warns

by November 25, 2025

Artificial intelligence and robotics could automate more than half of all work carried out in the United States — with existing technology — according to a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute.

The research finds that 57% of US work hours could be automated today if organisations redesigned workflows around the capabilities of AI agents and robots. The analysis suggests that nearly half of American jobs sit within occupations facing significant disruption from automation.

Around 40% of the roles most vulnerable involve drafting, information processing and routine reasoning — tasks at which AI agents already excel. Hiring in some of these fields, including paralegals, office administrators and even computer programmers, has slowed as companies assess the potential for AI to absorb large portions of their workload.

Physical roles are also at risk. Jobs performed in hazardous environments, such as warehouse operations or machinery handling, are highly likely to be replaced by robotics as adoption costs fall and safety concerns increase.

Conversely, McKinsey found that roughly one-third of American jobs are difficult to automate because they require deeply human qualities — from empathy to dexterity. Nursing and social care are among the safest professions, with 70% of tasks requiring physical presence, compassion and intuitive decision-making that machines struggle to replicate. Maintenance and repair roles, which require judgment, adaptability and work in unpredictable environments, are also hard to automate.

The report — Agents, Robots and Us — emphasises that the biggest barrier to large-scale automation is not technological capability but policy decisions, investment and companies’ willingness to overhaul entire workflows rather than automate piecemeal tasks. McKinsey estimates that redesigning work with AI in mind could generate $2.9 trillion a year in economic value by 2030.

The report paints a future in which humans work in partnership with AI rather than being replaced wholesale. Workers will spend less time preparing documents or processing data and more time interpreting outputs, guiding AI systems and making higher-level judgments. Teaching is highlighted as a sector where hybrid AI use could remove administrative burdens and support lesson planning, while leaving educators to lead, evaluate and interact.

While jobs will disappear, McKinsey argues that new roles will emerge — including AI product managers, safety specialists, system trainers and engineers responsible for tuning and supervising automated tools.

Real-world evidence suggests the shift is already under way. Fintech group Klarna has said it can continue to grow revenue without growing headcount, thanks to AI. Law firm Clifford Chance and telecoms provider BT have recently announced job reductions linked to increased automation.

Early-career workers appear most exposed. A recent Stanford study found that employees aged 22–25 in AI-intensive occupations have experienced a 13% decline in employment, although more experienced workers have not yet seen equivalent displacement.

McKinsey’s report follows Microsoft’s recent analysis predicting that translators, sales representatives and financial advisers face early AI disruption, while nurses, plumbers, ship engineers and water treatment operators remain among the safest professions.

Read more:
AI could replace half of American jobs, McKinsey warns

November 25, 2025
Rachel Reeves urges Labour MPs to unite behind her ‘make-or-break’ Budget
Business

Rachel Reeves urges Labour MPs to unite behind her ‘make-or-break’ Budget

by November 25, 2025

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has urged Labour MPs to rally behind her “fair and progressive” Budget, warning that while not every measure would be universally popular, the package must be backed in full to deliver the government’s economic agenda.

Addressing a tense meeting of the parliamentary Labour Party after two weeks of leadership speculation, Reeves told MPs that “politics is a team sport” and insisted the Budget would contain policies they could sell confidently to constituents.

“When you look at the distributional analysis you’ll see this is a Labour Budget, a progressive Budget, a Budget I’m proud of,” she said. However, she warned MPs that the measures must be taken “as a package, not a pick and mix”, telling them: “You might like 95% of it and dislike 5%, but we have to deliver this together.”

Reeves assured MPs that tax rises would be “kept to a minimum”, with the Budget focused on cutting the cost of living, reducing NHS waiting lists and lowering the cost of government debt. She argued that bringing down borrowing costs was essential to freeing up money for public services.

The Chancellor stressed she was “determined to keep the contributions people make as low as possible”, adding that support for household budgets would filter through to consumer spending and boost business activity.

Reeves is expected to confirm on Wednesday that the UK’s economic growth forecasts have been downgraded in each of the next five years, despite Labour making economic growth its central mission at the last election.

She defended Labour’s record since taking office, highlighting increases to the national living wage, protection of the triple lock, expansion of free childcare, free breakfast clubs in primary schools and extended free school meals to another half a million children. Recent freezes on prescription charges and rail fares were also flagged as evidence of early progress.

“But I know there is more to do,” she told MPs. “On Wednesday, this will be a fair Budget… one that delivers strong foundations, secures our future and delivers on our promise of change.”

Reeves also moved to quash rumours about her political future, vowing to stay in post and thanking colleagues for their support amid what she described as misogynistic media attacks. “I’ll show the media, I’ll show the Tories — I will not let them beat me,” she said to cheers.

The Chancellor is seeking to create up to £20 billion of fiscal headroom to meet her self-imposed rules. Popular measures expected include lifting the two-child benefit cap and action to cut energy bills.

After ruling out an income tax rise, Reeves is instead expected to rely on a string of smaller tax measures — including a possible high-value property levy, freezing income tax thresholds for two more years, a pay-per-mile charge for EVs and tighter rules on salary sacrifice schemes.

She also criticised the media’s handling of Budget speculation, saying rumour-driven reporting had been “incredibly destabilising”.

Reeves said the Office for Budget Responsibility’s report, due to be published alongside the Budget, would confirm that the UK’s productivity downgrade stems from Brexit and Conservative-era austerity, not the policies of the current government.

Read more:
Rachel Reeves urges Labour MPs to unite behind her ‘make-or-break’ Budget

November 25, 2025
Currency traders bet against sterling ahead of Reeves’ tax-raising Budget
Business

Currency traders bet against sterling ahead of Reeves’ tax-raising Budget

by November 25, 2025

Currency traders are increasing their bets against sterling ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, fearing that Rachel Reeves’ tax and spending plans could further weaken the UK’s already fragile economic outlook.

Data from CME Group shows trading volumes in put options — contracts that profit from a fall in the pound — have outpaced bullish call options by more than four to one over the past week. The surge suggests investors are bracing for a Budget that could push sterling lower.

Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura, said the pattern “points to a market that is well positioned for a challenging outcome for the pound.”

The pound, already close to its weakest level against the dollar since April, traded at $1.312 on Tuesday, after weeks of soft economic data and falling inflation encouraged traders to price in earlier Bank of England rate cuts — typically a drag on a currency.

Investors are worried that Reeves’ expected package of tax rises will darken the growth outlook or undermine confidence in the government’s ability to manage its fiscal position. Some fear that a poorly received Budget could place political pressure on the Labour leadership, adding further volatility.

Mark Dowding, chief investment officer for fixed income at RBC BlueBay, said it was “hard to see how Reeves delivers an outcome which looks bullish for UK growth,” adding that he has been betting on further sterling weakness against both the euro and the dollar.

Traders are also speculating that Reeves might introduce measures aimed at reducing inflation — such as a cut to VAT on energy bills — which could accelerate expectations of interest rate cuts and weigh further on the pound.

CME data shows sterling puts expiring on Budget day are significantly more expensive than calls, a sign that markets see sterling weakness as more likely than strength. The pricing skew is at its highest since January, when traders anticipated volatility around Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Chris Povey, head of FX options at CME Group, said: “We are seeing people trade sterling puts more intensively.”

However, analysts note that a well-received Budget — one that creates fiscal headroom and reassures markets about next year’s tax plans — could spark a relief rally in the currency. Kamal Sharma, director of G10 FX strategy at Bank of America, described the Budget as “the single most significant binary event of the year for sterling.”

But others warn that sterling remains vulnerable to concerns about high government borrowing, limited revenue-raising options, and political uncertainty.

“If the market doesn’t see enough signs of fiscal consolidation and credibility,” Nomura’s Bunning said, the pound could fall alongside long-dated gilts — a pattern seen more often in recent years.

Steve Englander, head of FX research at Standard Chartered, said sentiment around the UK remains bleak. “I haven’t heard anyone say good news about sterling or the UK in the last three months,” he said, citing the economy’s lack of momentum, high spending and constraints on tax rises.

Read more:
Currency traders bet against sterling ahead of Reeves’ tax-raising Budget

November 25, 2025
Installio raises £1.5m Seed round to accelerate national clean-energy rollout
Business

Installio raises £1.5m Seed round to accelerate national clean-energy rollout

by November 25, 2025

Clean-energy installation specialist Installio has raised £1.5 million in an oversubscribed Seed round led by Verb Ventures, as the fast-growing London-based company prepares to scale nationally amid surging demand for heat pumps and home-energy retrofits.

Founded to tackle the biggest bottleneck in the UK’s clean-heating transition — inconsistent, low-quality installations — Installio combines specialist engineering expertise with a technology platform that streamlines complex heat-pump projects from end to end. The company provides real-time project visibility, compliance oversight and access to highly vetted installers, enabling partners to deliver large-scale retrofit programmes at consistent standards.

The new investment will support Installio’s nationwide expansion and the development of its next-generation installer platform. In 2025, the company launched four new regions in the South of England, recording 40% month-on-month revenue growth, while installation volumes have doubled every two months.

Installio already works with major energy providers and retailers including E.ON Next, Aira and Good Energy, as well as contractors, housebuilders and housing associations.

Co-founder and CCO William Hoyer Millar said the company is “setting a new standard for clean-energy installs”.
“Heat pumps are only as good as the installs behind them, and for too long inconsistent quality has held back adoption. Our technology ensures high performance every time — and gives partners confidence that complex retrofit work will be delivered correctly, at scale.”

CEO Michael May added that homeowners benefit directly: “Our platform makes installations smoother, warmer and more efficient. This Seed funding allows us to expand nationally and keep building the technology that supports our teams on the ground.”

Verb Ventures partner Alex Chikunov said Installio represents the infrastructure needed for the UK’s clean-heating transition:
“The transition isn’t just about new technology — it’s about the operational capability to deliver thousands of quality installs reliably. Installio sits at that perfect intersection of tech and engineering.”

Non-executive director Lord Martin Callanan, former Energy Minister, described heat pumps as “critical national infrastructure”.
“Every heat-pump installation reduces Britain’s exposure to volatile global gas markets and strengthens energy independence,” he said. “Installio’s scalable, high-quality delivery is exactly what the sector needs.”

The investment arrives as UK heat-pump installation accelerates — up 56% in the first half of 2025 — ahead of new regulations making clean-heating systems standard from 2026. Studies suggest rapid deployment could add £4.8 billion to GDP and create 80,000 jobs by 2030.

With more than £13 billion in government funding earmarked for home-energy retrofits, installation capacity remains the sector’s defining challenge. Poor-quality fits in recent years have damaged consumer confidence, making verifiable quality and compliance essential.

Installio’s technology-enabled delivery model aims to close that gap — ensuring heat pumps and other clean-energy systems are installed quickly, compliantly and at scale, supporting the UK’s transition to affordable, low-carbon home heating.

Read more:
Installio raises £1.5m Seed round to accelerate national clean-energy rollout

November 25, 2025
New taxi VAT rule would hit vulnerable passengers hardest, warns lawyer behind landmark Uber case
Business

New taxi VAT rule would hit vulnerable passengers hardest, warns lawyer behind landmark Uber case

by November 25, 2025

A leading solicitor involved in the Supreme Court victory that shielded regional taxi firms from blanket VAT charges has warned that Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ proposed “taxi tax” could have damaging consequences for small operators and vulnerable passengers.

Layla Barke-Jones, Dispute Resolution Partner at law firm Aaron & Partners, represented Delta Taxis in the landmark case that confirmed private hire operators outside London are not automatically required to charge VAT on all fares. The ruling provided long-awaited clarity for thousands of operators — and protected passengers from sharp fare increases.

But with reports suggesting Reeves may impose mandatory VAT on all private hire fares in the Autumn Budget, Barke-Jones says the move would overturn hard-won legal certainty and disproportionately penalise those least able to afford higher costs.

“We are very concerned at the murmurings around a potential ‘taxi tax’ in the upcoming Budget,” she said. “The Supreme Court confirmed this summer that long-standing business models used by private hire operators remain lawful and that VAT is not automatically required. That outcome helped protect passengers from fare increases and allowed local businesses to operate sustainably.”

Barke-Jones said that forcing VAT on all fares would require a change in the law, overriding the Supreme Court’s position and placing an unfair burden on small operators already running on tight margins.

“Most vitally, we must not lose sight of who this impacts,” she added. “Private hire taxis are essential for elderly passengers, disabled people, lower-income households and others who rely on them for daily travel. These are the very groups who would feel any cost increase most sharply.”

The solicitor urged ministers to consult widely — particularly with passenger groups — before making a decision that could have “far-reaching social and economic consequences.”

Her warning comes as operators across the country brace for a Budget in which Reeves is expected to raise multiple small taxes to plug a multibillion-pound fiscal gap after ruling out increases to income tax.

Read more:
New taxi VAT rule would hit vulnerable passengers hardest, warns lawyer behind landmark Uber case

November 25, 2025
Chancellor urged to use AI to ‘Make Britain Great Again’ as Budget looms
Business

Chancellor urged to use AI to ‘Make Britain Great Again’ as Budget looms

by November 25, 2025

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is being urged to seize the moment and use artificial intelligence to “Make Britain Great Again”, as business leaders and technology experts warn that AI may be the only route to growth in a Budget constrained by Labour’s tax promises.

The calls come as the government prepares to announce thousands of new AI-related jobs and billions of pounds of investment in a bid to boost productivity and reboot the stalled UK economy. Measures expected on Wednesday include the creation of a new AI Growth Zone in South Wales, forecast to deliver more than 5,000 jobs over the next decade, and £137 million to support leading scientists developing new drugs, treatments and advanced medical technologies.

Patrick Sullivan, CEO of the Parliament Street think tank, said Reeves’ fiscal room for manoeuvre has been severely limited.

“With Labour’s absurd manifesto pledge ruling out income tax rises, the Chancellor is now forced to cobble together a quick-fix solution to fill a black hole that is entirely of her own making,” he said. “The one saving grace is the advent of mass AI adoption — a technology that can deliver enormous efficiencies when the government needs them most. This is Labour’s chance to show it understands private enterprise and recognise that AI can truly make Britain Great Again.”

But while advocates say AI investment will be essential to unlocking long-term growth, cybersecurity experts warn the technology also exposes the UK to a rising wave of digital threats.

Graeme Stewart, head of public sector at Check Point Software, said billions in AI funding must be matched with a national defence strategy.

“The case for investing in AI to drive growth is clear, but very little has been said about the cyber and regulatory risks,” he said. “Criminals have already shown nothing is off-limits — from the NHS to nurseries to local councils. A mass AI rollout must be backed by a robust plan to protect critical national infrastructure.”

Stewart added that the government must lay out how it intends to defend both public services and the private sector against AI-enabled cyberattacks, warning that the threat landscape is becoming “increasingly lethal”.

Business leaders also stressed the need for Reeves to rebuild trust with employers after last year’s £25 billion rise in National Insurance, which many firms are still absorbing.

Kenny MacAulay, CEO of accounting software platform Acting Office, said AI investment could help stimulate hiring and productivity — but only if it is paired with clearer support for employers.
“With businesses still reeling from the NI increase, the Chancellor has a tough job ahead to win back trust from the private sector,” he said. “A nationwide AI rollout and new infrastructure can help kickstart growth, but only alongside a plan to get businesses hiring again.”

MacAulay also said the Chancellor must recognise the role of financial services and accountancy firms in delivering growth and regulatory compliance, and urged the profession to embrace AI to streamline operations and improve client service.

With the Budget just hours away, the message from industry is aligned: AI represents one of the few remaining levers available to drive growth — but a successful rollout requires ambition, security, and renewed confidence from business.

Read more:
Chancellor urged to use AI to ‘Make Britain Great Again’ as Budget looms

November 25, 2025
Qatar invests millions in new British venture capital fund backing quantum start-ups
Business

Qatar invests millions in new British venture capital fund backing quantum start-ups

by November 25, 2025

A new British venture capital fund has secured major backing from Qatar to accelerate investment into quantum computing start-ups, marking a significant vote of confidence in one of the UK’s fastest-growing deep-tech sectors.

Firgun Ventures, co-founded by academic and former Culture Trip founder Kris Naudts and ex-Goldman Sachs banker Zeynep Koruturk, has closed its first investment round at $70 million (£53 million). The largest contribution came from the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), with further backing from several family offices and Ilyas Khan, founder of quantum computing giant Quantinuum, recently valued at $10 billion.

Firgun aims to build a $250 million fund, but will begin deploying capital immediately from its London base, focusing on early-stage quantum firms in the UK and abroad.

“There is a very good set of investment opportunities here,” Naudts said, citing the UK’s strong academic foundations in quantum research and the concentration of talent within the Oxford-Cambridge-London triangle. According to analysis from the Tony Blair Institute, the UK is home to 64 of the world’s 513 dedicated quantum start-ups, placing it second only to the United States.

Naudts said the UK’s challenge is not innovation but capital availability — a gap he believes Firgun can fill. “Kudos to the UK for having the second most quantum start-ups in the world — the country’s not that big,” he said.

Firgun’s leadership team brings a highly unusual mix of backgrounds to the sector. Naudts is a trained doctor and psychiatrist turned tech entrepreneur, while Koruturk previously held senior roles at Goldman Sachs. The pair were early backers of Quantinuum, investing as far back as 2016.

Quantum computing is widely regarded as the next major frontier in technology. By processing information at unprecedented speed, quantum machines could solve complex scientific and mathematical problems far beyond the capabilities of existing supercomputers — unlocking breakthroughs in materials science, climate modelling, logistics optimisation and drug discovery.

For Naudts, the mission is also personal. After leaving Culture Trip, he says he was misdiagnosed with a neurodegenerative disease, an experience that reinforced his belief that quantum computing will one day transform diagnostics and medical treatment. “Quantum will be able to improve diagnoses and treatments for many health problems,” he said.

Firgun Ventures will now begin evaluating early investments, positioning itself as a new London-based player in the global race to commercialise quantum technologies — with Qatari capital helping to build momentum.

Read more:
Qatar invests millions in new British venture capital fund backing quantum start-ups

November 25, 2025
Disposable income falls for fourth consecutive month as one in five Brits can’t cover essential bills ahead of Reeves’ Budget
Business

Disposable income falls for fourth consecutive month as one in five Brits can’t cover essential bills ahead of Reeves’ Budget

by November 24, 2025

Disposable income has fallen for the fourth month in a row, with new data revealing that one in five UK households can no longer afford to cover their weekly essential bills — piling pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves just days before her tax-raising Budget.

The latest Asda Income Tracker, compiled by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), shows that low- and middle-income families — who make up 60% of all UK households — continue to face shrinking spending power as wage growth fails to keep pace with rising taxes and essential costs.

Households in the lowest income quintile, earning an average of £11,000 a year, ended October with a £74 weekly shortfall, 7% worse than last year. Those in the second-lowest bracket had just £10 left after essentials, a deterioration of 17% year on year. Middle-income families (£41,000 average) were left with £90 — a marginal fall of 1%.

By contrast, the wealthiest 20% of households ended the week with £909 of discretionary income, up 2% on last year, illustrating the widening divide in household resilience as inflation and tax pressures mount.

The tracker shows essential costs rose 4.6% year on year, driven by food, housing and utilities — categories that account for a disproportionately large share of expenditure among lower-income families. Younger households face the greatest squeeze: those under 30 spend 69% of gross income on essential items, largely due to soaring rental costs.

The warning comes as unemployment hits 5%, labour market conditions weaken and Reeves prepares to unveil a Budget expected to include further fiscal tightening to address a £20 billion shortfall.

Sam Miley, head of forecasting at Cebr, said the outlook remained fragile despite easing inflation.
“Worse-than-expected labour market figures for September show weakened demand and rising employment costs,” he said. “Prospects for the UK economy are not helped by the high likelihood of fiscal contraction in the November Budget.”

Monthly disposable income dipped again in October, falling by £1.01 from September, with average household purchasing power now standing at £253 per week — the same level recorded last December.

Gross household income grew by 3.6%, slightly slower than the previous month. Those aged 30–49 recorded the highest average income at £1,384 per week, followed by those 50–64 at £1,264.

Economists warn that lower earners face further pain over the Christmas period as living costs remain elevated, while any tax rises in Wednesday’s Budget risk intensifying pressures on already vulnerable households.

Read more:
Disposable income falls for fourth consecutive month as one in five Brits can’t cover essential bills ahead of Reeves’ Budget

November 24, 2025
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