Stocks

All of our major indices continue to rally off the April 7th, cyclical bear market low. A couple, however, have broken out of key bullish continuation patterns that measure to all-time highs. I’ll focus on one in today’s article.

Russell 2000

The IWM is an ETF that tracks the small-cap Russell 2000 and it’s chart couldn’t be much more bullish right now. After setting an all-time high on November 25, 2024 at 243.71, the IWM fell into its own cyclical bear market, dropping to a low of 171.73 on April 7th. That represented a drop of 71.98 points, or 29.54%, well beyond the 20% cyclical bear market threshold. A bottoming reverse head & shoulders pattern formed and I’ve been awaiting for a breakout above neckline resistance at 211. We saw that on today’s open after nonfarm payrolls highlighted our somewhat resilient economy as jobs came in ahead of expectations and the unemployment rate held steady. Check out this chart on the IWM:

I’m not saying that we’ll see a straight up move to 249, and short-term direction could be impacted by how we finish today. A weak afternoon could lead to further short-term selling, possibly back to the rising 20-day EMA. But, ultimately, and during 2025, I’m looking for that all-time high. A strong finish this afternoon and close on or near the daily high would add more bullishness to this chart.

Leading Stocks in Leading Industry Groups

The small cap IWM is no different than any of our other major indices, like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. When you see an index breakout, you need to look to the leading stocks in that area in order to outperform the benchmark index. We started our Leading Stocks ChartList (LSCL) two weeks ago and the results have been absolutely phenomenal so far, which I would expect them to be. After last week, we produced our 2nd weekly LSCL and the results have been awesome once again. There were 43 stocks included and 32 of the 43 have outperformed the S&P 500 this week. That’s similar results to our first weekly LSCL.

Individual stock leaders from our LSCL included the following big winners as of 1pm ET today:

PRCH: +16.89%DOMO: +15.75%LASR: +15.40%HOOD: +15.10%QBTS: +13.17%TTMI: +11.62%ZS: +10.76%

These are exceptional returns when you consider the benchmark S&P 500 gained just 1.38% this week.

I want to provide all of our followers a SPECIAL OFFER to join our FREE EB Digest newsletter. Subscribe HERE with only your name and email address (no credit card required), and we’ll provide you a link and password to download this unique Leading Stocks ChartList (LSCL) and check it out for yourself. You need to be an Extra or Pro member at StockCharts in order to download the ChartList into your account. Basic members and non-members can view the ChartList and check out the stocks we include for next week.

Happy trading!

Tom

Silver just hit a 13-year high, breaking above a key resistance level that could ignite a major bull run. Some metals analysts now say a rally to $40 isn’t a long shot, but a matter of time. So, are the odds finally shifting in favor of the bulls?

And, more importantly, is now the time to capitalize on silver’s breakout?

To answer, let’s break down the key technical levels and explore the fundamental factors that may (or may not) fuel silver’s next major move.

Gold vs. Silver: A Look at Intermarket Momentum

In the StockCharts Market Summary, the Intermarket Analysis panel highlights various commodities and indexes. You’ll notice that SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is leading the group with the largest positive three-month price change and StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score.

FIGURE 1. MARKET SUMMARY INTERMARKET ANALYSIS PANEL. Gold is significantly outperforming other commodities.

While silver is missing from this panel, the intermarket analysis chart to the right of the panel, which plots a one-year chart of intermarket performance, allows you to add silver to the group.

FIGURE 2. ONE-YEAR CHART LAYING OUT THE INTERMARKET ANALYSIS COMPONENTS. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) (color-coded gray) and its latest intermarket performance reading is highlighted by the magenta box.

Is Silver Undervalued? Understanding the Gold-to-Silver Ratio

Note the wide performance gap between GLD and SLV. Let’s look at a chart illustrating the gold-silver ratio ($GOLD:$SILVER).

FIGURE 3. 15-YEAR CHART OF GOLD-TO-SILVER RATIO. The ratio is above both averages, suggesting that silver is undervalued.

Take a look at the blue and green bands. Both represent the common gold-to-silver ratio levels that many, if not most, analysts use.

The blue band (60:1 to 65:1) reflects the long-term post-1971 average.The green band (70:1 to 75:1) reflects the 10-year modern average.

When the ratio is above these bands, silver is typically undervalued relative to gold. This can signal three possible outcomes:

Silver rises while gold declines.Both rise, but silver outpaces gold.Both fall, but silver falls less.

The key question now: If silver is undervalued, does the technical setup support an actionable bullish resolution?

SLV Breaks Out: Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

In the daily chart below, SLV recently broke above key resistance at $31.75, exiting a wide trading range that stretched down to $26.25. The Quadrant Lines symmetrically divide the entire zone, providing more clarity to the trading volume and price behavior.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF SLV. Support levels are highlighted within the four quadrants dividing SLV’s 8-month trading range.

Here are a few key insights to consider:

The Stochastic Oscillator is reading “overbought,” suggesting that a pullback is likely in the coming sessions.Buying pressure is stronger than at any point over the past year, according to the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), suggesting that SLV, even in the case of a pullback, may have enough volume-driven momentum to drive prices higher.The first quadrant, shaded green, marks the breakout level and top of the eight-month trading range.The second quadrant, shaded yellow, marks the highest concentration of trading activity and various levels of support and resistance.The third quadrant, shaded red, marks another level of support before the bottom of the range, which also marks the lowest support level over the last eight months.

If SLV pulls back but investor conviction remains strong, a bounce is likely within the first two quadrants, particularly the second (yellow) quadrant. However, if SLV drops below the second quadrant and enters the third (shaded red), it signals weakening sentiment and suggests the breakout has failed, pulling SLV back into the trading range that has dominated over the past eight months.

Will Silver Hit $40? Forecasts and Fundamental Tailwinds

Some analysts are expecting $SILVER to rise to around $40 an ounce. SLV’s price equivalence is around $37–$38 per share.

From a technical perspective, historical resistance levels are often target zones for those looking to take profit or unload positions. Here are the historical resistance levels to watch in SLV (pull up a 20-year chart of SLV to see these levels):

$36.44 – the February 2012 high$42.78 – the August 2011 high$48.35 – the April 2011 high

These are the levels reached since the last major silver boom in 2011. SLV may (or may not) reach these levels, but it’s important to see the proverbial “roof” before you hit it.

What This Means for SLV Traders Going Forward

With silver breaking out and momentum accelerating, SLV could be setting up for a sustained move. So watch the depth of the pullback, if it happens. You will want to see a bounce above $29 (the lower part of the second quadrant); movement below that is not favorable to the bulls. And, last but not least, remember things can change quickly as geopolitical developments and economic news unfold.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Most religions of the world have the fundamental beliefs that are strikingly similar to the Ten Commandments. History has taught humanity that life does not seem to work well without such guiding principles. As responsible parents, we should have a parallel foundation of ten life skills that we impart part to our children. Your list will vary from mine, of course, but these are the ten essential precepts which I imparted to my son.

Learn the basic life skills such as hygiene, cooking, cleaning, etc.Develop and maintain positive relations with friends and family.Keep a positive ‘can-do’ attitude exuding confidence and good self-esteem.Have strong ethics and values centered around honesty, morality and empathy for others.Develop strong communication skills, both verbal and written.Develop strong problem solving skills, curiosity, education, and rational thinking.Set goals and maintain the motivation to overcome life’s inevitable challenges.Appreciate the spiritual side of life.Keep healthy habits pertaining to diet, exercise, and lifestyle.Understand the tenets of financial literacy relating to money, saving, budgeting, and spending.

Many parenting books have been written on each of these ten topics, but I’d like to highlight the last one – #10. I propose that financial literacy alone has 10 essential skills that we should cultivate in our children. Giving them the gift of a money-wise toolkit along with your time will go along way to ensure their long-term success. It will be the proud legacy you leave and how you’ll be remembered.

These are my Ten Financial Commandments to teach your offspring.

Start early and encourage your kids to embrace investing as a hobby. It’s intellectually stimulating and they’ll meet great people.Invest consistently and regularly. Don’t try to time the market. As of yet, no one has successfully created that algorithm.Warren Buffet famously described the magic of compounding as “the eighth wonder of the world.” He likened it to a snowball rolling down a long hill, accumulating more snow as it rolls. Do the math; it’s true.Avoid debt and leverage. Buying a house or college loan aside, credit card debt and onerous fees can ruin you.Ignore fads and hot tips. You’ll be inevitably late, pay too much and experience the bursting of the bubble eventually.Day trading is not investing, and it’s important to understand the difference. If you are an adrenaline addict and absolutely must day trade, then allocate a small percentage of your portfolio to this activity and consider it your “funny money” that’s expendable. Trading is indeed part of successful investing, but overtrading is not.Pay attention to fees. One percent a year may not sound like much, but when you do the calculations and look at a 10-15 year timeframe, you’ll lose out big-time. Fees represent your money that doesn’t get reinvested or compounded for you over the span of those 15 years.Be careful which assets you marry. Some have long-term handcuffs, high fees, unattractive risk-to-reward ratios and low probabilities of making you wealthier. I’ve never forgotten this famous quote from John Bogle, who founded Vanguard: “Don’t look for the needle in the haystack; buy the haystack.” In other words, buying the S&P 500 Index (SPY) is a reasonable strategy.Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Young people often think that if they lose big, they’ll have many years to recover. My point is, why lose at all? Asset protection should always be a paramount objective throughout one’s life. Start young.Be action-oriented. Start today. Don’t procrastinate. Don’t make excuses. Buy a good investment book. (I humbly suggest the one I wrote with my son.) Start a free trial at StockCharts.com. Do some paper trading. You might discover you are the second coming of Warren Buffett!

In a spirit of full disclosure, it’s important that I acknowledge the other half of the equation in writing about the ten basic life skills and financial commandments instilled in my son. He was also raised by a devoted and well-educated mother who has an MBA and understands the markets as well.

The bottom line: teach your children about money management. If you don’t, you are intentionally placing them instead into the hands of that merciless professor called “Experience”. The tutorial will be ruthless, and the lessons learned will be costly and late.

Trade well; trade with discipline!

Gatis Roze, MBA, CMT

StockMarketMastery.com

Author, “Tensile Trading: The 10 Essential Stages of Stock Market Mastery” (Wiley, 2016)Developer of the “Stock Market Mastery” ChartPack for StockCharts membersPresenter of the best-selling “Tensile Trading” DVD seminarPresenter of the “How to Master Your Asset Allocation Profile DVD” seminar

P.S. If you would like to be notified when I post a new Traders Journal blog, please submit your preference via the tile in the right column titled FOLLOW THIS BLOG.

I’m a huge fan of using platforms like StockCharts to help make my investment process more efficient and more effective.  The StockCharts scan engine helps me identify stocks that are demonstrating constructive technical configuration based on the shape and relationship of multiple moving averages.

Today I’ll share with you one of my favorite scans, called “Moving Averages in Correct Order”, and walk through three charts that highlight the benefits of identifying charts in primary uptrend phases.

Primary Uptrends Can Be Defined By Moving Averages

This scan, which StockCharts members can access in the Sample Scan Library, basically looks for three criteria to be met for any chart:

20-day EMA > 50-day SMA50-day SMA > 100-day SMA100-day SMA > 200-day SMA

The general approach here is to find charts where the short-term moving averages are above their longer-term counterparts.  By making multiple comparisons, we can ensure a more consistent uptrend phase based on the recent price action.  

Let’s review two charts that I feel are representative of the stocks that will tend to come up using this scanning approach.

You’ll Probably Find Two Types of Charts in the Results

The most common result will be a chart that is in a long-term primary uptrend, making consistently higher highs and higher lows.  Netflix (NFLX) is a great example of this sort of “long and strong” price action.

The four moving averages have remained in the proper order as described above for most of the last 12 months.  After NFLX pulled back to its April low, a bounce back above the March swing high moved the 21-day exponential moving average back above the 50-day simple moving average.  From that breakout point, the stock has continued to push to new all-time highs into early June.

One thing I love about this scan is it helps me confirm which stocks are in persistent uptrends, because those are the types of charts that I generally want to be following as they trend higher.  But sometimes, a pullback chart will come up in the scan as well.  Here’s TJX, which has recently pulled back after achieving a new all-time high in May.

We can see that the moving averages returned to the proper order in early April after rotating higher off a major low in mid-March.  From that point, TJX had a false breakout in mid-April before finally completing the move to a new high in early May.  TJX subsequently gapped lower after an earnings miss, and the stock has now pulled back to an ascending 50-day moving average.

The TJX chart reminds me of three benefits of following moving averages over time.  First, we can look at the slope of an individual moving average to evaluate the shape of the trend on a specific time frame.  Second, we can compare multiple moving averages to validate the trend on multiple time frames.  Finally, we can use moving averages as potential support and resistance levels in the event of a pullback.

With TJX testing an ascending 50-day moving average this week, I’m inclined to treat this chart as “innocent until proven guilty” as long as it remains above this key trend barometer.  But if and when the 50-day moving average is violated, and if the moving averages are no longer in the proper order, then I would need to reevaluate a long position.

Why the Transition to Proper Order is So Important

This final example shows how the transition between moving average configurations can prove so valuable in understanding trend transitions.  Here’s a daily chart of VeriSign (VRSN) showing how the relationship between the moving averages can help us better label the different trend phases.

On the left third of the chart, we can see the moving averages mostly in a bearish order, confirming a distribution phase for the stock.  Then in June 2024, the moving averages change to where there’s no real clean definition of the trend.  This represents a consolidation phase, where buyers and sellers are essentially in agreement.

Finally, we can see that when the moving averages finally achieve a bullish configuration, VRSN is now in an accumulation phase of higher highs and higher lows.  And as long as those moving averages remain in the proper order, the uptrend phase is confirmed.

The goal with this moving average scan is to help us identify charts that are just rotating into the accumulation phase.  It’s also designed to encourage us to stick with winning trends as long as the price action confirms the uptrend.  And if and when the moving average configuration changes, then our approach should probably change as well!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Recently, the S&P 500 ($SPX) has been racking up a good number of wins.

Since late April, the index has logged its third winning streak of at least five: a nine-day streak from April 22–May 2 and a six-day streak from May 12–May 19. That makes for a cluster of long winning streaks, which is something that also showed up in late 2023 and mid-2024.

To put it simply, these bunches of buying usually show up in uptrends. Note how there were no five-day winning streaks during the three corrections pictured on the chart below (in August–October 2023, July–August 2024, and February–April 2025). Most of the clusters happened as the S&P 500 was in the middle of a consistent upswing; the only time we saw a long winning streak occur right before a big downturn was in late July 2024. That came after a strong three-month run from the April lows, with the S&P 500 gaining 14% in three months.

CHART 1. WINNING STREAKS IN THE S&P 500. Since late April, the S&P 500 has logged a nine-day streak from April 22 to May 2 and a six-day streak from May 12 to May 19.

Currently, the SPX is up 23% in just under two months. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a break in the action at some point soon.

The key difference between now and July is that back in July, the S&P 500 was making new highs for two straight months. That’s not the case now, as the index is still below the February 2025 highs. So it’s not apples to apples, but, at some point, the market will have to deal with more than a minor pullback once again.

Sentiment Check

After the close on Wednesday, I ran an X poll asking if the 0.01% move was bullish or bearish. The result: 61% said bullish.

This tells us that most people saw Wednesday’s pause as a sign that the bears are unable to push the market higher, which could be true. But it also suggests complacency. The onus still is squarely on the bears to do something with this, with the only true sign of weakness in the last six weeks coming on May 21, when the S&P 500 plummeted 1.6%. That ended up being an aberration… for now.

UBER Stock: One to Watch

Sometimes, a specific stock can provide clues about the broader market’s next step. Right now, we think that the stock is UBER.

Technically speaking, UBER is at a critical spot, and it’s also an important stock given that it was one of the first growth names to break out to new all-time highs. The stock remains in a long-term uptrend, which, of course, is bullish, but it has quietly pulled back 13% from its May 20 high of $93 and was just down nine out of 10 trading sessions (see the weekly chart of UBER stock). We can see that the stock has fully retraced the price action from the pattern breakout near $82.

CHART 2. WEEKLY CHART OF UBER STOCK. The stock is in a long-term uptrend, although it has retraced. Here’s where things get really interesting. UBER has now formed a potential bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, seen on the daily chart. If the stock breaks below $82, it will target the 71-zone.

CHART 3. DAILY CHART OF UBER STOCK. Will UBER’s stock price hold support or break below it? This chart is one to monitor.

So, here are three outcomes to watch for. UBER’s stock price could:

Hold support (bullish). Break below $82, but then reverse higher, which would be a bear trap (bullish). Break below $82 and continue lower and hit the downside target (bearish).

If #3 occurs, the odds are UBER won’t be declining by itself; it’ll likely drag the broader market down with it. This shows the significance of UBER stock, which certainly makes it one to keep an eye on.

A lot has happened in the stock market since Liberation Day, keeping us on our toes. Volatility has declined significantly, stocks have bounced back from their April 7 low, and the economy has remained resilient.

If you’re still feeling uncertain, though, you’re not alone. The stock market’s in a bit of a “wait and see” mode, going through a period of consolidation as it figures out its next move. 

The S&P 500 ($SPX) is hesitating to hit 6000 despite reclaiming its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This indecision can leave investors feeling stuck in “no man’s land.” And it’s not just the S&P 500, either; most major indexes are in a similar scenario, except for small caps, which have been left behind. This could be because the market has priced in a delay in interest rate cut expectations.

Tech Is Taking the Lead

If you drill down into the major indexes, there is some action you shouldn’t ignore. Tech stocks have started to take the lead again, although momentum has been lacking. Over the past month, the Technology sector has been up over 4%.

FIGURE 1. S&P SECTOR ETF PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. Technology is the clear leader with a gain of over 4%.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes. It’s encouraging to see tech stocks regain their leadership position. Tech is a major force behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ). The daily chart of the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) shows the ETF has been trying to break above a consolidation range it has been stuck in since mid-May.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLK. Although the ETF has barely broken above its consolidation range, we need to see greater momentum to confirm a follow through to the upside.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.Nothing is standing in the way of XLK reaching its all-time high, but the momentum isn’t quite there yet. The 14-period relative strength index (RSI) is below 70 and looks to be stalling, pretty much in line with the overall stock market’s price action.

So, what’s the market waiting for? Maybe a catalyst, like Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. This week’s JOLTS, ADP, and ISM Services data didn’t move the needle much, but the NFP report could be the game changer.

S&P 500 Technical Forecast

Where could the S&P 500 go from here? Let’s dive into the weekly chart.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500. The index is spitting distance to its all-time high. A break above the November high would clear the path to new highs.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The S&P 500 broke above its 40-week SMA on the week of May 12 and has held above it. However, it has been in a consolidation for the last month, similar to that of XLK.

The S&P 500 is approaching its November high of 6017. A break above it could push it toward new highs. On the flip side, if it slides below the 40-week SMA, it would be a cause for concern and could mean the May 12 gap-up could get filled. Keep an eye on the 5688 level. If the S&P 500 pulls back close to that level and turns around, it would be a healthy correction — an opportunity to buy the dip. A further downside move would mean exercising patience or unloading some of your positions.

What’s Going On With Gold and Bonds?

While stocks are grinding sideways, gold prices are rising, and bond prices are showing green shoots. This price action tells us that investors could be bracing for slower growth ahead. It’s not something to panic about — just something to watch.

You can get a quick look at what gold, bonds, and all the major indexes are doing by checking out the StockCharts Market Summary page and Your Dashboard.

So, what should you do?

Hold, add, or fold? That’s the big question. The market needs time to digest a lot, from economic data to geopolitical risks and policy headlines. Keep checking in and monitor the sectors, observe index performance, and note how other areas of the market, such as precious metals and bonds, are reacting.

 Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Joe walks through a comprehensive lesson on using the ADX (Average Directional Index) as part of a technical analysis strategy. Joe explains the key components of the ADX indicator, how to interpret DI+ and DI- lines, and how to identify strong or weak trends in the market. He also covers how to combine ADX with price action and volatility to improve timing and trading decisions.

In addition, Joe analyzes SPY, QQQ, IWM, and individual stocks like AMPX, UNH, and more, focusing on trend conditions, MACD, price structure, and key moving averages.

The video premiered on June 4, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Despite the uncertainty prevailing in the markets, the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) has proven resilient, perhaps more so than its peer benchmarks. The 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China, initiated in May, boosted investor confidence. Yet that’s now at risk amid mutual accusations of violations.

Nevertheless, markets rallied on Tuesday morning after news that April job openings, one of a few key reports leading up to Friday’s jobs report, were better than expected. Still, signs of weakening demand, rising deficits, and declining CEO confidence suggest the economy remains fragile.

Why QQQ May Be Worth Watching Right Now

In light of the current environment, is it worth adding positions to Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), an $NDX proxy?

Shifting over to the StockCharts Market Summary page, you can see just how well $NDX is performing.

$NDX Breadth Metrics Reveal Bullish Participation

FIGURE 1. BREADTH AND BPI PANELS ON THE MARKET SUMMARY PAGE. While other indexes are growing increasingly bullish, you can see how the $NDX stands out.

Examining the Breadth panel on the left and zooming in on the moving averages, the $NDX has the most stocks trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a bullish signal considering that breadth of participation is critical when gauging the performance of an index. On the right panel, another breadth reading — the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) — tells you that 76% of the stocks in the index are triggering Point & Figure Buy Signals, giving you another angle on breadth, which happens to be in alignment.

Now that you’ve seen how $NDX is outperforming in terms of breadth, you’re probably curious about how many stocks are hitting new highs relative to the other indexes. Also, are there any particular standout subsectors or industries?

The New Highs panel can help answer both questions.

FIGURE 2. MARKET SUMMARY NEW HIGHS PANEL. The $NDX leads across the board, which asks the next question: Are there any standout sectors or industries represented within the index?

The $NDX has the highest percentage of stocks hitting new highs. If you click the Nasdaq 100 link, it will bring up a list of stocks in the index. The ones with a StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score above 90 are listed below.

FIGURE 3. $NDX STOCKS WITH SCTR SCORES ABOVE 90. It’s a mixed bag in terms of industry.

The mix of subsectors and industries indicates there’s no one particular grouping (like all semiconductors or all AI stocks) leading the index. The $NDX’s outperformance is distributed across different areas.

So, back to the original question: is it worth entering or adding positions to QQQ?

Strategically, the outlook is murky. Geopolitical tensions and policy reversals can shift the market landscape overnight. But tactically, technical signals may offer potential entry points if you know where to look.

QQQ Weekly Chart: A Technical Rebound With Caveats

Let’s start with a broader view of QQQ, which is the likely investment vehicle for those who want to go long the $NDX. Here’s a weekly chart.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF QQQ. The ETF sharply recovered from a steep drop, but is there enough investor conviction to break above, or even test, its all-time high?

You can see how QQQ recovered sharply from its drop over the last quarter. While it’s trading above its 40-week SMA (equivalent to the 200-day SMA), you can also see how the 10-week SMA (or 50-day SMA equivalent) has fallen below it. Is it a false Death Cross signal, or is it indicating that the QQQ may not have enough momentum or investor conviction to test and break above its all-time high?

Zooming In: Key Support and Resistance Levels

To get a clearer picture, let’s zoom in on a daily chart.

This chart shows QQQ’s recovery in detail. There are several technical features converging to suggest critical support and resistance areas.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF QQQ. The key zones are highlighted. Now it’s a matter of seeing what QQQ does next.

Here’s a breakdown of the key things to watch:

Note the long Volume-by-Price levels (on the left) and how they correspond to the green- and yellow-shaded areas, indicating a high concentration of trading activity which can serve (or has served) as support and resistance.The green range is where QQQ’s price is currently hovering, and the question is whether the ETF can break above it, opening up a path to test its all-time highs, or whether it will fall further.The space between the 200-day SMA and the yellow-shaded area marks a critical support range. QQQ has respected the 200-day SMA before, bouncing off it as price tested the level (blue arrows).The yellow-shaded area, another support range, marks a convergence of historical swing highs and lows (see blue arrows), serving as both resistance and support. It’s also another area of concentrated trading activity.

If QQQ falls below the green area, failing to advance higher, then you can expect support at the 200-day SMA (near $495) or the yellow-shaded range ($465 – $470). Below that, there’s another support range (shaded in red) near $430, but a decline to this level might also suggest weakness in investor conviction.

So far, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just below the 70-line, indicating room to run should there be enough momentum to advance it. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), though well above the zero line, shows that buying pressure may be dwindling a bit, enough to watch closely, since volume often precedes price direction.

At the Close

The Nasdaq 100 may be navigating a messy macro backdrop, but its breadth, momentum, and leadership show promise. Strategically, the terrain is uncertain. Tactically? The charts suggest a practical setup for those who are looking to lean into strength.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this market update, Frank breaks down recent developments across the S&P 500, crypto markets, commodities, and international ETFs. He analyzes bullish and bearish chart patterns, identifies key RSI signals, and demonstrates how “Go No Go Charts” can support your technical analysis. You’ll also hear updates on Ethereum, Bitcoin, the Spain ETF, silver miners, USO (oil), and sector ETFs like XLP and XLV.

This video originally premiered on June 3, 2025.

You can view previously recorded videos from Frank and other industry experts at this link.

In this video, Dave shares his weekly stock scan strategy used to identify bullish stock trends. He illustrates how to set up this powerful scan, reveals the tips and tricks he uses to identify the most constructive patterns, and explains the four winning chart setups that tend to come up week after week.

Whether you’re a beginner or seasoned trader, this guide will enhance your charting process and help you uncover winning trade setups using technical analysis.

This video originally premiered on June 3, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.