Stocks

Amid ever-increasing uncertainties on the global front and similarly rising geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, the Indian equity markets demonstrated strong resilience. They consolidated before ending the week on just a modestly negative note. The trading range remained modest; the Nifty oscillated in a 590-point range. While the markets defended their key support levels, the volatility surged. The volatility barometer, the India Vix, spiked 18.49% to 21.63 on a weekly basis.. The headline index finally closed with a net weekly loss of 338.70 points (-1.39%).

A few important things to note from a technical perspective. The 200-DMA is at 24044; the 50-week MA is at 23983. This makes the zone of 23950-24050 a very important support zone for the Nifty. So long as the Index is able to defend this zone, it will continue consolidating in a defined range. Incremental weakness would creep in only if the 23900 level is violated decisively. On the higher side, as evident from the charts, the markets have continued to resist the rising trendline resistance. From now on, the Nift’s behavior vis-à-vis the zone of 23950-24050 would be crucially important to watch; the Index’s ability to defend or not defend this zone will dictate the trend over the coming weeks.

The levels of 24350 and 24600 are expected to act as probable resistance points in the coming week. The supports are at 23900 and 23630.

The weekly RSI is 54.36; it stays neutral and does not diverge against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above its signal line. A bearish engulfing candle has emerged. Its emergence near a pattern resistance adds credibility to the resistance placed near 24500-24600.

The pattern analysis of both daily and weekly charts shows that the Nifty has traded quite on the expected lines and within the analyzed range. It has continued resisting the rising trendline resistance near 24500-24600; it has so far defended the key that is created between the 200-DMA and the 50-week MA. The markets would weaken only if they violate the crucial 23900 level; so long as this point stays defended, we can expect the markets to consolidate in a defined range.

Based on the overall technical structure, it is likely that the markets will not see any immediate upward trend. While if the markets end up breaching the 23900 level remains to be seen, it is doubtful that they will initiate any sustainable trending upmove and move past the 24500 levels soon. The hedging activity and the cost of hedging have increased; this is evident from Vix, which has significantly risen over the past few days. While the Nifty has defended the key support levels so far, it remains in a technically challenging environment. It is strongly recommended that the market participants adopt a defensive approach by focusing on the low beta stocks and the stocks with improving relative strength. Staying low on leveraged positions, a continued cautious outlook is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSE Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. Infrastructure, Nifty Bank, PSU Bank, FMCG, Consumption, Commodities, and the Financial Services Indices are also inside the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to outperform the broader Nifty 500 Index relatively.

The Nifty Metal Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. This may cause the sector to slow down and give up on its relative performance. The Services Sector index also remains in this quadrant.

While the Nifty IT Index continues to languish in the lagging quadrant, the Auto and the Realty Indices are sharply improving their relative momentum against the broader markets while staying inside this quadrant.

The Nifty Midcap 100 index has rolled inside the improving quadrant; may see its relative performance bettering over the coming days. The Media and the Energy Indices are also inside this quadrant, and may continue seeing improvement in their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Want to know where the stock market is headed next? In this week’s market update, Mary Ellen McGonagle analyzes key resistance levels and reveals what’s fueling the current uptrend. She highlights top bullish setups among U.S. leadership stocks, plus global names showing strength.

This video originally premiered May 9, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Is a recession coming? In this video, Julius breaks down the latest updates to his powerful Sector Rotation Model, analyzing four key macroeconomic indicators and their impact on sector performance.

This video was originally published on May 9, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

When your investment portfolio isn’t gaining ground, it’s natural to feel uneasy, especially in a market that lacks direction. A headline-driven environment only adds to the uneasiness, making it more difficult to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell.

This is a challenging situation for investors. The S&P 500 ($SPX) is still hovering close to its “Liberation Day” level, struggling to break above it. Of the three major indexes, the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) was able to break above the April 2 levels, but is having a hard time reaching its March 25 high, which, as of this writing, aligns with its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

What’s Behind the Lack of Direction?

Much of the market’s indecision centers on uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Trade deals are front and center in the news, with the most important one being with China. Those talks kick off this weekend. While President Trump’s suggestion of lowering the tariffs against China from 145% to 80% was a step, stocks didn’t react much. It’s still a very high rate and probably not what investors wanted to hear, and thus the market ultimately closed lower on Friday.

The S&P 500’s recent trading behavior reflects the uncertainty. In the last seven trading days, movement has been muted, a drastic change from the wide-ranging days of early April (see chart below). Of late, any optimistic news gets investors a little upbeat, but the enthusiasm fades quickly. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The last seven days are narrow range days, unlike the wide-ranging days from early April.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes

Sector performance isn’t showing clear dominance either. On strong days, Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Communication Services take the lead. On weaker days, defensive areas like Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples step in. This flip-flopping suggests investors lack conviction.

Mid and Small-Caps: Gaining Momentum

The S&P 400 Mid Cap Index ($MID) and S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) posted five straight weeks of gains. This was picked up from the Market Summary page (Equities panel, weekly streak column). This warrants a closer look at these two asset groups.

Mid-cap stocks are showing slight signs of recovery. In the weekly chart of the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, the index is approaching a near-term resistance level (blue dashed line), the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is trending higher, and there’s no consistent move in the Advance-Decline Percent or Advance-Decline Volume Percent.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 400 MID-CAP INDEX. There are signs of the start of an upside move, but far from confirmed. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The weekly chart of the S&P 600 Small Cap Index mirrors the behavior in $MID—$SML is trading above its 10-week simple moving average, the percentage of stocks trading above its 200-day moving average is rising, and there’s a slight increase in the Volume Advance-Decline Percent.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX. Similar to the chart in Figure 2, small-cap stocks are also showing slight signs of a potential rally, although it’s a long way away from confirming an uptrend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Mid- and small-cap stocks didn’t participate much in the large-cap Mag 7 bull rally. Maybe things are beginning to look better for these stocks, especially if large-cap growth stocks get bogged down by tariffs.

Looking at the three-month performance across the S&P Sector ETFs, Utilities and Consumer Staples are the best performers, followed by Real Estate and Industrials.

FIGURE 4. THREE-MONTH PERFCHART OF S&P SECTOR ETFS. Consumer Staples and Utilities are the top performers over the last three months, followed by Real Estate and Industrials.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If your portfolio leans heavily toward mid- and small-cap stocks, it may be worth monitoring the performance of these groups. These stocks can rally quickly, but can also fade just as quickly. If you’ve been holding on to those stocks for over a decade, a big upside move could offer an opportunity to take profits or re-evaluate your portfolio.

The Bottom Line: Be Prepared

Next week promises a slew of market-moving news: earnings reports, trade deals, and key inflation data. It may be best to stay on the sidelines until the market digests the news. However, if you see a chance to take profits or reduce risk, don’t let them slip away.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

S&P 500 down 0.47% on the week, at 5659.91, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.16% on the week at 41,249.38; Nasdaq Composite down 0.27% on the week at 17,928.92.$VIX down 3.44% on the week, closing at 21.90.Best performing sector for the week: IndustrialsWorst performing sector for the week: Health CareTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Duolingo Inc. (DUOL); Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD); MicroStrategy (MSTR); Applovin Corp. (APP)

On the Radar Next Week

Earnings season continues with several small and mid-cap companies reporting.April Consumer Price Index (CPI)April Producer Price Index (PPI)April Retail SalesFed speeches from Powell, Jefferson, Daly, and others.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Last Friday, the S&P 500 finished the week just below 5700. The question going into this week was, “Will the S&P 500 get propelled above the 200-day?” And as I review the evidence after Friday’s close, I’m noting that the SPX is almost exactly where it was one week ago!

That’s right–after all the headlines, tariff tantrums, and earnings reports, the S&P 500 ended the week 0.4% below where it started. This “lack of conviction” week led me to post the following poll on X, asking followers to decide which they felt would happen first: a retest of the February 2025 high or a retest of the April 2025 low.

I was actually quite surprised that there wasn’t more optimism after April’s incredible rally phase, but you can see that 55% of respondents thought the February high around 6150 would be hit first. So unlike the AAII survey’s recent readings, there appear to be more bulls than bears out there.

Based on this week’s extended choppiness, I thought it might be good to revisit an approach called “probabilistic analysis” to consider four potential paths for the S&P 500 between now and late June 2025. Basically, I’ll share four different scenarios, describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and also share my estimated probability for each scenario.

By the way, we last ran this analytical process on the S&P 500 back in January, and you need to see which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the S&P 500 index continuing the recent uptrend phase to retest all-time highs by June.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

Our most bullish scenario would mean that the aggressive rally phase off the April low would essentially continue in its current form. After perhaps the briefest of pullbacks at the 200-day moving average, we continue to the upside. This scenario would most likely mean the Magnificent 7 stocks would have to really find their mojo, with names like GOOGL, AAPL, and AMZN finally breaking through their 200-day moving averages.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if the S&P 500 stalls around the 200-day, with a pullback that inspires even more indecision among investors? Perhaps we are still in “wait and see” mode as some tariff negotiations prove fruitful, but empty shipping containers remind consumers of the prospects of chronic inflation.  By mid-June, we’re no closer to a real clear sense of direction than we are today.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

Because of the time frame I’ve selected, there won’t be another Fed meeting until after this period is over. So, what if inflation data starts to imply real price issues, consumer sentiment really starts to falter, and the Fed is unable to take any meaningful action to address mounting concerns? If we fail to push above the 200-day moving average soon, then 5500 would be a likely area of support on the way down.  This scenario brings us right back down to that level.

Dave’s vote: 40%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

You always need a bear case, and this one would entail a new distribution phase that takes the major benchmarks down to retest the April low. I’d say a reasonable downside objective would be 5100, and we’ll spend the month of June debating whether we’re forming a huge double bottom pattern or see another bounce higher. Defensive sectors shine as investors rotate big time to risk-off positions.

Dave’s vote: 20%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios?  Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Stocks plunged into early April and surged into early May, suggesting that a “V” reversal is in the making. There are two parts to the V reversal. First, there is the V, which is the plunge and the rebound. Second, there is the breakout move that completes the reversal. SPY fulfilled the V part, but has yet to actually reverse the long-term downtrend.

The chart below shows SPY falling 20% from late February to early April and then surging some 14% into early May. This move created the V as SPY nears the 200-day SMA and the March support break. The blue-pink shading marks broken support turned resistance in the 575-580 area. We also have the 200-day SMA marking resistance here. Thus, SPY is clearly at a moment of truth. A push through 580 would break the 200-day SMA and negate the March breakdown. This would be bullish price action.  

There is more to a V reversal than price action. TrendInvestorPro went back and studied four V reversals over the last 11 years. They all feature capitulation and a sharp V-shaped recovery. However, it is upside participation that holds the key to moving from bear market to bull market. We need to see a significant increase in upside participation and key breadth indicators cross specific thresholds. These indicators include the percentage of stocks above their 200 and 150 day SMAs, and High-Low Percent.

This week TrendInvestorPro produced a detailed report and video analyzing the prior V reversals and the key participation levels to watch. Among other ETFs, this week’s reports featured the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR), the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), the Utilities SPDR (XLU) Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), Gold SPDR (GLD) and DB Agriculture ETF (DBA). Click here to take a trial and gain full access.

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In this insightful session, Grayson introduces the Traffic Light indicator, a unique tool available exclusively on the Advanced Charting Platform (ACP). Amidst the current volatility of the S&P 500, Grayson demonstrates how this indicator can help investors clarify trend directions and make more confident decisions.

This video originally premiered on May 9, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is back in the spotlight, wrestling with its four-year highs and turning heads on Wall Street. It debuted in 2021 as an IPO darling, capturing the imagination of young Gen Z traders before its dramatic fall as a meme stock fueled by crypto and an unhealthy dose of FOMO.

Now, with year-to-date gains outpacing the S&P 500 ($SPX), the former disruptor is looking to claim its space as a serious contender rather than a speculative fad.

Robinhood Stock’s Price Action: Breaking Out or Topping Out?

If you’ve been checking the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Reports, you’ve probably noticed the stock popping up on the Large Cap Top 10 list.

FIGURE 1. SCTR REPORT LARGE CAP TOP 10. Robinhood is second from the top.

If you’re eyeing HOOD, you’re likely asking two key questions: How is it performing relative to its Financials sector peers, and how strong is the sector itself in terms of market breadth? Just as important, you’ll want a longer-term view: How has the stock held up over time, both on its own and compared to the broader S&P 500?

Let’s tackle all those questions in one shot.

Financial Sector Breadth Shows Bullish Tailwinds for HOOD

The chart below, which tracks the Financial Sector Bullish Percent Index, offers a quick read on sector strength and market positioning.

NOTE: The BPI spans three years.

FIGURE 2. FINANCIAL SECTOR BPI. Market breadth and comparative price performance look exceedingly bullish.

From a breadth perspective, the Financial sector looks bullish, bordering on overbought, with over 82% of the stocks within the sector triggering Point & Figure Buy Signals, according to its Bullish Percent Index (BPI) reading. Meanwhile, HOOD is crushing it on a 3-year relative basis—outperforming its sector by 250% and the S&P 500 by nearly 300%.

This paints a bullish picture. But before jumping to conclusions, let’s take a step back and look at HOOD’s price history, going back to when it IPO’d in 2021.

From Meme Craze to Measured Recovery

Check out the weekly chart below.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF HOOD. It’s above the 10-week and 40-week SMAs, but it has quite a distance to go before testing its yearly high.

You don’t need annotations to spot where HOOD’s meme-stock frenzy peaked and where the crash began, fueled by a sharp drop in retail trading activity, crypto market volatility, and intensifying regulatory pressure.

After basing for two years, HOOD began picking up steam in 2024. Its improving technical strength is reflected in the sharp spike of its SCTR, breaking above the 90 line. Fundamentally, HOOD began to recover as it started raking in profits, expanding its product lineup, and reigniting its user growth.

It’s trading above its 10-week and 40-week simple moving average (SMA), which is equivalent to a 50-day and 200-day SMA, respectively. Still, it has quite a way to go before testing its high of $66.90.

Short-Term Trading Setup

If you’re looking to buy HOOD, you’ll need to zoom in to find favorable entry points. Let’s switch over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF HOOD. Support levels are clear and accumulation looks promising.

HOOD was in an intermediate-term downtrend starting in early February, where it peaked at $66.90, all the way down to the early part of April, where it bottomed sharply at around $29. HOOD quickly recovered, breaking above $50 (a local swing high) to $54, where it is now (at the time of writing).

Can HOOD Hold Its Gains or Is Consolidation Coming?

The Stochastic Oscillator warns that HOOD may be overbought and due for a pullback. Here are a couple of scenarios to consider, and note that the Ichimoku Cloud visually provides a wider range of potential support:

Watch for support at $46 or $39, both recent swing lows.If it stalls between those levels, it could signal a failed breakout and continued consolidation until a new catalyst emerges.If it drops below $39, the next key level is at $29, but be a little cautious at that point, as such a deep retracement may indicate weakening momentum, sentiment, and fundamental weakness.

On the bullish side of things, the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL), currently well above the price, is indicating strong accumulation, suggesting that demand is outpacing supply—which, if it continues, can drive prices higher.

At the Close

Robinhood’s stock price is showing real signs of strength, not just on a chart, but in its fundamentals. With relative performance beating its sector and the S&P 500, and strong accumulation under the surface, HOOD’s comeback narrative is gaining technical validation. But with overbought signals flashing and key support levels in play, the next move may depend on whether bulls defend the breakout, or if the stock consolidates further while waiting for its next catalyst.

In either case, keep a close eye on volume, momentum shifts, and those support zones. HOOD may still have more room to run, but timing your entry could make all the difference.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The stock market’s action on Wednesday was a bit like trying to pick a dinner spot with friends—lots of back and forth, but no real direction.

The market started out higher and went up and down without much of a directional bias until the Fed made its expected interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. Stock prices dipped lower, but right before the close, another headline moving event surfaced: President Trump announced the rollback of some chip-related restrictions. This news gave the market a boost into the close.

Here’s how the broader indexes closed:

The Dow Industrials ($INDU) finished up 0.70%.The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 0.43%.The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) added 0.27%.

Tech Leads, but Alphabet Takes a Hit

In terms of sector performance, Technology came out on top, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Health Care. On the flip side, Real Estate, Communication Services, and Materials were the laggards.

The main reason behind the stumble in Communication Services was Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), which dropped by a whopping 7.26%. Why the selloff? An Alphabet exec testified that Google was losing search traffic to AI tools.

The StockCharts’ S&P 500 MarketCarpet (below) reflects Wednesday’s price action.

FIGURE 1. STOCKCHARTS MARKETCARPETS FOR MAY 7, 2025. It was mostly green with some pockets of red.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Overall, Wednesday’s performance is leaning more positive than negative, but is it enough to break through critical resistance levels?

Resistance Levels in the S&P 500

To get a clearer picture, we need to check out the daily chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX).

FIGURE 2. S&P 500 FACING A LOT OF HEADWINDS. THE 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is a resistance level the index is struggling to break above.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The S&P 500 is sandwiched between its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the February high to April low show that the 61.8% retracement level is proving to be a stubborn ceiling. Add to that the downward-sloping 50-day SMA, and the market may have a tough time moving higher. To leave the downtrend in the rearview mirror, the S&P 500 would have to break above its 200-day SMA with the necessary follow-through to keep it above that level. So far, the price action suggests that the S&P 500 will face headwinds to get to that stage.

News Moves Markets, Like the Chip Surprise Today

Remember, the market’s price action is like riding a rollercoaster powered by headlines. This can sometimes send technical analysis into a disarray.

Take, for example, today’s news about lifting the chip restrictions, which sent semiconductor stocks higher. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped 2.05% (see chart below).

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SMH. Will the semiconductor ETF be able to break out above its May 2 high?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Like the chart of the S&P 500, SMH needs to work harder at breaking its downtrend. The one ray of hope is that Wednesday’s move reached the May 2 high. The downside: it wasn’t able to break above it. This shows investors are cautious about semiconductors and the overall equity market.

Volatility Says It All

The caution among investors can be seen clearly in the chart of the S&P 500 vs the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX).

FIGURE 4. VIX VS. S&P 500. Even though the VIX pulled back from its April peak, it’s still above average.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What’s interesting is that while the VIX fell when the S&P 500 rose from mid-April, the VIX hasn’t dropped to its average level of 19. It’s still trading above it, which is another point that increases the probability of further downside in equities.

The Bottom Line

There is a lot going on: geopolitical tensions, trade deal updates, policy shifts. Any of these can jolt the market in either direction.

It was encouraging to see tech stocks and semiconductors bounce on Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean we’re headed back to the days of growth stock leadership. If you’re an investor, especially one managing retirement money or nearing retirement, the best approach is to be patient. We’re not out of the woods yet.

As always, stay alert and stick with your investment plan.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Joe shares how to trade MACD signals using multiple timeframes, and how to spot stock market pullback setups that can help to pinpoint a great entry off a low. He then reviews sector performance to identify market leadership, covers key chart patterns, and discusses a looming bearish signal on QQQ and IWM. The video wraps with technical analysis on popular viewer-submitted stock symbols, including REAL, PSTG, and more.

The video premiered on May 7, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.