Stocks

U.S. stocks are on the cusp of a very impressive breakout to all-time highs, but are still missing one key ingredient. They need help in the form of a semiconductors ($DJUSSC) breakout of its own. When the DJUSSC reached its all-time high on June 20, 2024, one year ago, a nasty bearish engulfing candle printed on extremely heavy volume, I wrote an article, “The Semiconductors Have Topped; Look Elsewhere for Opportunities”. Simply put, it was buyers’ exhaustion”. I looked for a 20% drop in the index, providing this chart at the time:

There’s now been a lengthy period of sideways consolidation on the semiconductors as you can see from this updated chart as that 20% drop immediately occurred:

Semiconductor leadership has been held firmly in check by the overhead price resistance just below 22000. Until that resistance is cleared, the QQQ has a lid on it.

Let’s keep in mind that the QQQ, an ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 index, can be broken down into its top 2 industry groups, as follows:

Semiconductors ($DJUSSC): 21.65%Software ($DJUSSW): 19.11%

More than 40% of the QQQ is comprised of semiconductors and software. Here’s what the longer-term, 5-year software chart looks like:

Software’s relative strength is powerful and we’ve recently seen an absolute price breakout – an awesome combo. On a 5-year weekly chart of semis, it’s quite apparent that when the semiconductors break out, they carry the NASDAQ 100 on their shoulders higher and we’re close to a breakout now:

We just saw a relative strength breakout on the DJUSSC, there’s only one thing missing – that absolute breakout and it’s coming fairly soon, in my opinion.

Market Outlook

A big part of what happens over the next 6-12 months will be highly dependent on the two industry groups above. There are over 100 industry groups and this may be oversimplifying stocks a bit, but make no mistake about it. Higher growth prospects and lower interest rates can result in flying PE ratios and these two groups are home to companies that can expand their businesses very rapidly.

Market Manipulation

I’ve discussed the role of market makers and their manipulation of the stock market many times over the past several years and there’s no doubt in my mind we were just exposed to another massive dose of it in the first half of 2025. At EarningsBeats.com, however, we’ve become experts at spotting it and pointing it out. I discussed the importance of being in cash back in late January and in February before the massive Wall Street ripoff started and I also wrote about the importance of getting back in early. Remember my article in the second week of April, “The Bottom is Here or Rapidly Approaching”? These are real-time articles, folks. You need to see the tops and bottoms before they occur. It does little good to talk about it now. We don’t get a “do over.”

Or do we?

What do I mean by that? Well, we’ll have plenty more chances to spot tops and bottoms in the future, but you need to learn from this year’s mistakes RIGHT NOW. Don’t let these big-money, Wall Street crooks do it to you again. We have one MASSIVE advantage on our side vs. these big Wall Street firms. We can enter and exit stocks in seconds. It takes them days and weeks.

If you want to be better-positioned to see this nonsense AHEAD OF TIME the next time it comes around, I’d suggest that you join me on Saturday, June 28th at 10:00am ET for a 100% free event, “Trading The Truth: How Market Manipulation Creates Opportunity”. CLICK HERE to register and learn more about the event! This is a MUST-ATTEND event and seating is limited. Be sure to save your seat and learn how to protect your hard-earned money for the rest of your financial future!

Happy trading!

Tom

This week, Julius breaks down the current sector rotation using his signature Relative Rotation Graphs, with XLK vaulting into the leading quadrant while utilities and staples fade. He spotlights strength in the technology sector, led by semiconductors and electronic groups that are outpacing the S&P 500. Microchip heavyweights AMD, NVDA, and AVGO are displaying bullish RRG tails, reinforcing the trend. Communication Services and Energy are gaining momentum as well, rounding out a playbook that rewards disciplined trend-following amid risk from geopolitical headlines.

This video was originally published on June 20, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

The Fed should absolutely stop talking about being “data dependent”. That’s so far from the truth. If they were data dependent, we’d have either seen a rate cut today or Fed Chief Powell would have been discussing one for the next meeting. Inflation reports since the last Fed meeting have been benign. Economic reports, on the other hand, have shown weakness and are pointing to the need for lower interest rates.

Powell was having none of it. During Wednesday’s press conference, one reporter asked the Fed Chief why the Fed was able to lower rates in December, despite knowing that tariffs and their potential impacts were on the way. I thought it was a great question, because Powell was using future tariff impacts on inflation as the primary reason for holding rates steady today. It was a perfect illustration of The Waffler at his best. When another reporter asked Powell about his frequent comments that the Fed is data dependent and that all current data points to the need for an interest rate cut, The Waffler noted the Fed needs to “look ahead”. So which is it? Is interest rate policy being guided by current data or by looking ahead?

This is a repeat of 2021 and 2022. Remember all the inflation news and how The Waffler said inflation was transitory. I guess he was looking ahead when he made those comments. He and his band of wafflers looked ahead and got it wrong. Then, inflation data poured in higher than expected for months and he finally started his data dependency talk.

The Fed has been late to every single party for 7 years now and running. They’re running late again. Eventually, Mr. Waffler will get it right and our major indices will all move to all-time highs. For now, though, the reason for any period of consolidation or, worse yet, selling can be laid at the doorstep of none other than The Waffler.

Personally, I’m exhausted by the constant “listen to what I say until I change it” approach to interest rate policy. Yes, we’ve had a 100-year pandemic and a resulting inflation problem that’s been worse than any since the 1970s. We’ve had two trade wars. I get it. But I firmly believe that the extreme volatility and the four (FOUR!!!!!!!) cyclical bear markets that we’ve endured since The Waffler became the Fed Chief is, in large part, his fault. He was sworn in on February 5th, 2018 and the stock market has been a roller coaster ever since:

Name the last time that the U.S. has seen 4 different cyclical bear markets, all starting from all-time highs, within a 7-year period. Start the Jeopardy music.

His mismanagement of interest rates didn’t start with the pandemic. I wrote an article in December 2018, during his first year, saying that his call for two rate hikes in 2019 would never happen. The next interest rate move? A cut several months later in 2019. Here’s the article I wrote back then as we bottomed in December 2018:

“How The Grinch Stole Christmas” Featuring Jerome Powell

No one has been wrong more than The Waffler.

Now maybe you’re sitting back and saying, “Tom, what’s the big deal? The tariffs are a threat. Why not just wait it out and be sure there are no lingering inflationary pressures?” Well, if you don’t mind the potential of a 5th cyclical bear market before we finally boot this guy to the curb, then I say GO FOR IT. Why try to hasten an economic meltdown when it’s unnecessary? Who believes anything The Waffler says? He said we were going to get two rate hikes in 2019. We got an interest rate cut instead. He said inflation was transitory in 2021. Then the Fed had to start raising rates at an absurd rate, because inflation skyrocketed and he waited way too long to turn hawkish. The stock market bottomed in June 2022 and was returning back towards all-time highs just prior to his infamous “more pain ahead” speech from Jackson Hole, WY on August 26th, 2022. Subsequent to that speech, the stock market fell precipitously for two months before once again finding a new bottom. That entire selling episode was caused solely by his irresponsible remarks.

And now where are we? Holding rates steady while the European Central Bank (ECB) has cut rates for 8 straight meetings. The Waffler will eventually get it right. Unfortunately, a lot of innocent investors and traders will continue to pay the price – until someone finally shows him the exit.

His term expiration cannot get here soon enough for me. GOOD RIDDANCE MR. WAFFLER!

Market Manipulation

I’ve written often about what I call the “legalized thievery” of market makers. The extreme volatility over the past several years has triggered market manipulation like we’ve never seen before. The good news is that once you understand how it works, trading the stock market gets a whole lot easier. At EarningsBeats.com we’ve timed exits out of the stock market almost perfectly, prior to the onset of cyclical bear markets. Missing out on 20%+ declines and then jumping back in at or near major bottoms increases stock market returns dramatically.

It’s time that everyone understands how the stock market works. On Saturday, June 28th, at 10:00am ET, we will be hosting a FREE webinar, “Trading the Truth: How Market Manipulation Creates Opportunity”. This event promises to be a real eye-opener, unless you’re already an EarningsBeats.com member (in which case you’ve already become a seasoned veteran regarding manipulation). Do you want to see big stock market declines before they happen? I will teach you how.

Seating is limited and this event will be packed, I can guarantee you that. PLEASE be sure to register NOW and save your spot. Again, there is NO COST. Registration is easy. Simply CLICK HERE to register and for more information.

(By the way, if you’re not available to attend LIVE on Saturday, June 28th, you should still register. All those who register will receive a copy of the recording after the event and it will be time stamped.)

Happy trading!

Tom

When the stock market seems to be drifting sideways without displaying a clear bullish or bearish bias, it’s normal for investors to get anxious. It’s like being at a crossroads, wondering whether to go left, right, or stay put.

The truth is nobody has a crystal ball, and predicting what the market will do next is a fool’s errand. Should you jump in and buy now, or wait for the price to dip lower? Instead of fretting over these questions, what you can do is empower yourself with the right tools to make informed decisions.

For one example, creating ChartLists is a terrific way to keep an eye on the charts that are important to you. 

A logical starting point is to monitor a broad market index such as the S&P 500 ($SPX), which acts as a barometer for the overall health of the market. The chart from this week’s article “Navigate the Stock Market with Confidence” highlighted some important levels to monitor. The area between 5950 and 6050 is key; a break above or below these levels can signal what’s coming next.

Below is the chart of the S&P 500, with the key levels and updated to reflect the data after Wednesday’s close. Note that the index is still within the 5950 to 6050 range. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference didn’t do much to move the market, although there was a bit of a selloff towards the close. But that’s nothing to be alarmed about. Active participants would have unloaded their positions ahead of Wednesday’s close due to the Middle East conflict and the market being closed on Thursday to observe Juneteenth.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500. Monitor the price action at key support and resistance levels.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If the S&P 500 breaks below 5950, it could mean a further decline or a market reversal. On the other hand, if the index breaks above 6050, it could indicate a move towards new highs, or it could reverse after hitting its all-time high. With so many possible outcomes, navigating the stock market can feel like a puzzle.

This is where confirmation tools become your best friends. When the overall market is wavering, these tools provide that extra bit of confidence you need.

Take the McClellan Summation Index as an example. If you’re a regular reader of our weekly ChartWatchers newsletter (and if not, you should definitely check it out — it’s packed with insights), you might recognize the chart below from last week’s issue.

FIGURE 2. NYSE MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX VS. THE NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX. Note the divergence between the two and the various levels (red horizontal lines). Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

This chart displays the NYSE McClellan Summation Index ($NYSI) overlaid on an area chart of the NYSE Composite Index ($NYA). The McClellan Summation Index tends to generate fewer signals, making it helpful for looking at medium and long-term trends. It helps to cut through the noise of an indecisive market and gives you a clearer picture.

Notice how, after its April low, the $NYSI climbed from -590 to 688 relatively quickly in sync with the NYSE. But here’s where it gets interesting: after hitting 688, there is a divergence. While the NYSE continued to move higher, the $NYSI started trending lower, making lower highs. This could be an early warning sign that the market’s upward momentum may be waning.

The McClellan Summation Index gives us some clear levels to monitor.

Bearish scenario. If the S&P 500 falls below the 5950 level, followed by the $NYSI dropping below its last low of 525, then it’s likely equities could see further declines.Bullish scenario. If the S&P 500 breaks above the 6050 level, followed by the $NYSI moving higher than 642 and then the 688.50 level, it would be a positive sign for equities.

The Bottom Line

So if you’re wondering when might be a good time to “buy the dip” but are unsure about when that dip might occur, these types of charting tools can help guide your investment decisions. If your indicators line up and confirm an upward move, consider investing a portion of your capital and then adding more if the market continues to move in your favor. A big part of how well you manage your finances has to do with money management.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Grayson explores a hidden gem on the SharpCharts platform: StyleButtons! These handy little customizable tabs give you quick, one-click access to your favorite chart templates, allowing you to jump from ChartStyle to ChartStyle with a seriously streamlined charting workflow. Grayson demonstrates how to create and save ChartStyles and assign them to StyleButtons in your account – a major efficiency boost for all StockCharts users! Plus, he describes how he uses StyleButtons to make multi-timeframe analysis a breeze and explain his unique “indicator layering” approach to ChartStyles.

This video originally premiered on June 18, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

Joe presents his game-changing “undercut and rally” trading pattern, which can be found in high volatility conditions and observed via RSI, MACD and ADX signals. Joe uses the S&P 500 ETF as a live case study, with its fast shake-out below support followed by an equally quick rebound; a good illustration of why lagging indicators can’t be trusted right after a vertical drop.

In addition, Joe maps out three possible scenarios for the S&P: (1) an orderly pullback, (2) a disorderly slide that erases moving-average support, or (3) a breakout. He closes by analyzing viewer requests, spotlighting DOCS and KMI for constructive consolidations, and flagging PGEN as still too weak for a swing entry.

The video premiered on June 18, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Follow along with Frank as he presents the outlook for the S&P 500, using three key charts to spot bullish breakouts, pullback zones, and MACD signals. Frank compares bearish and bullish setups using his pattern grid, analyzing which of the two is on top, and explains why he’s eyeing SMCI and AMD as potential trades. From there, he wraps the show with a look at some ETF plays.

This video originally premiered on June 17, 2025.

You can view previously recorded videos from Frank and other industry experts at this link.

When you see headlines about geopolitical tensions and how the stock market sold off on the news, it can feel unsettling, especially when it comes to your hard-earned savings. But what you might not hear about in the news is what the charts are indicating.

Look at what happened in the stock market recently. On Friday, investors were bracing for a rocky start this week, expecting geopolitical tensions to shake up the stock market. That’s not what unfolded. After Friday’s +1% dip, the U.S. indexes bounced back, starting the week off on a positive note. It just goes to show how quickly things can shift, and often, not in the way we might anticipate.

A Closer Look at the S&P 500

The S&P 500 ($SPX) looks like it’s back on track and attempting to move toward its all-time high. Volatility has also retreated, and oil prices, which went as high as $77.62 a barrel, have pulled back to slightly above $71.

Think of it this way: if you took Friday’s price action out of the equation, the S&P 500 has been moving steadily by grinding out its narrow range sideways move. The uptrend in equities is still in play, despite the Middle East conflict.

The StockCharts Market Summary page shows that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are trading well above their 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), while the Dow Industrials ($INDU) is struggling to remain above the benchmark. Small-cap stocks continue to struggle, which suggests that growth leadership continues to be on investors’ radars. You can see this in the sector performance panel, which shows Technology in the lead.

Since tech stocks make up a significant portion of the S&P 500, let’s take a closer look at the daily chart.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The week started off on a positive note despite Middle East tensions. Monitor trends, key levels, and momentum indicators.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

As mentioned earlier, not much has happened in the S&P 500 despite Friday’s selloff. The overall uptrend is still in place. The index is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average. The S&P 500 is about 1.84% away from its all-time high.

However, even though the bias is slightly bullish, there are indications that the market’s momentum isn’t strong at the moment. Here’s why:

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is faltering, indicating momentum isn’t quite there yet. Note the RSI is not moving higher with the index, meaning it’s diverging.The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has been relatively flat and sloping slightly downward since the end of May. This confirms the stalling momentum indicated by the RSI.The 200-day SMA is above the 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA needs to cross above the 200-day SMA to confirm the bullish bias.

What to Watch

Keeping the trend direction and momentum in mind, here are some levels to monitor on the chart.

Just below 6150: This area represents the S&P 500’s all-time high. If the index reaches this level, it will likely be met with resistance. A break above this level would elevate bullish sentiment and show upside momentum in the market.Between 5950 and 6050: The S&P 500 has been moving within this range for most of the month. It almost seems as if it’s waiting for something to act as a catalyst to move it in either direction. When it happens, the RSI and PPO will indicate whether momentum is to the upside or downside.The 5775 area: This level represents the March 24 to March 26 high and the May 12 and May 23 lows. A break below this level would not be bullish for the S&P 500. Note that the 200-day SMA is close to this level.

The Bottom Line

The stock market always has its ups and downs, and some days may feel more uncertain than others. However, by focusing on long-term trends and support or resistance levels based on past highs and lows, you can approach your investment decisions with a more objective mindset.

Instead of reacting to news headlines, consider adding the “lines in the sand” — key support and resistance levels, trendlines, price channels — to your charts. These can be added to daily, weekly, or monthly time frames. Monitoring the market’s action at these levels can offer valuable insights and better prepare you for whatever comes your way.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights breakouts in Energy and Defense, Technology sector leadership, S&P 500 resilience, and more. She then unpacks the stablecoin fallout hitting Visa and Mastercard, highlights Oracle’s earnings breakout, and shares some pullback opportunities.

This video originally premiered June 13, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

With oil prices surging and geopolitical unrest stirring in the Middle East, it’s no surprise that energy stocks are drawing renewed attention. And, quite frankly, this week didn’t have many market-moving earnings. So this week, we skate to where the puck is, or, in this case, where traders’ eyes will be focused—the Energy sector.

In the past, we have witnessed this sector spike due to conflicts, and changes can come quickly. The following setups appear to favor continued and quick momentum to the upside.

Energy: A Sector on the Move

Let’s begin with the big picture: the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). This ETF offers a broad view of the energy landscape. Yes, 40% of this ETF consists of just two stocks — Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX). So these two will drive the bus when it comes to price action. However, when looking at the entire sector, we see some good risk/reward setups worth monitoring.

From early 2024, XLE has been trading in a rather wide neutral range. In April, though, the ETF broke down and fell out of that range. That was due in part to cheaper oil prices and a reaction to Liberation Day tariffs. This ended up being a classic bear trap, as price held its 200-week moving average (red circle above) and moved back into its range.

The adage, “from false moves come fast moves in the opposite direction,” is well in play here, and given the fundamental backdrop of oil spiking due to conflict, the push higher should continue.

From a risk/reward set-up, the ETF could climb towards the top end of its range and likely break out higher. The risk is at the bottom of the neutral range — support at $82.50 with a first stop upside target of $95. Given Friday’s close, it’s not too much of a risk/reward difference, but momentum indicators suggest the upside is achievable, possibly quickly.

The weekly Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is flashing a strong buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is breaking a downtrend going back to its August 2024 peak. It has all the makings of a run to resistance and potential breakout, with conservative upside targets of $108 given the range from which the ETF is breaking out.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY): A Buffett Favorite Reawakens

If you’ve followed Warren Buffett’s investments, you’ll recognize Occidental Petroleum (OXY). The stock has been beaten down for quite some time, but, last week, it awoke from its slumber.

OXY shares spiked on Friday, which puts it at a key inflection point. This price action caught our eye, since we are focusing on some good setups from a risk/reward perspective. There could be more room for the stock to run.

OXY enters the week at its weekly downtrend, going back to its 2024 peak at $69.56. Technically, there is major resistance ahead, but it seems poised to attack those levels and has a lot to reverse, which can give investors a nice percentage gain in the meantime.

If shares can eclipse this recent downtrend, then expect a quick run to its 200-week moving average at the $52/$53 level. This level acted as a major consolidation point for years; the once mighty support area could act as resistance and must be watched closely. However, a date with this level looks quite promising and represents a 15% gain from Friday’s close.

If momentum continues and OXY breaks through that level, it’s smooth sailing for another 15+% upside toward the $60 area. OXY could continue to its 2022–2023 consolidation area and do so quickly.

Baker Hughes (BKR): Is It Ready to Wake Up?

Lastly, we turn to Baker Hughes (BKR), an oilfield services and technology company that has been a major laggard since its February peak of $48.85. Technically, it enters the week at a major inflection point.

BKR has formed an ascending triangle, which is nearing its breaking point. That point happens to be at its longer-term downtrend and its 200-day moving average, which makes for an interesting setup.

Downside risk could see shares fall back to their 50-day moving average and the rising short-term average that’s within this tradable formation. If BKR breaks below that level, all bets for this near-term rally are off. 

The upside risk favors the bulls. If BKR were to break out, this would confirm a new uptrend, with upside targets 15–20% higher than Friday’s close.

Final Thoughts

The setups we’re seeing in the Energy sector offer a favorable balance between risk and reward. Be mindful of the downside risks and place your stops in the event the position goes against you. Remember, energy markets can shift quickly, especially when geopolitical tensions are involved.