Stocks

I feel like the short-term risk is turning once again and I’ll explain why in my analysis below. Please don’t misunderstand. I suggested a bottom was in place a few weeks ago and I LOVE what has been happening in terms of manipulation/accumulation and I LOVE the fact that we were able to quickly regain both the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA on our major indices.

However, here are the four major indices and where they’re at currently on their respective charts and their next key overhead resistance levels:

Dow Jones

We did manage to close just above the 50-day SMA here, but the Dow Jones still appears vulnerable to me. Given the fact that the S&P 500 has room to run up to what is now major price resistance at 5782, I could see the Dow Jones moving a bit higher to challenge the late-March high at approximately 42750. That could serve as a neckline.

S&P 500

20-day EMA resistance? No problem, went right through. Gap resistance 5500? Ditto. 50-day SMA resistance. Ditto. This rally has been impressive. Key levels of price resistance have failed and this tells me that we’re not going to violate the low at 4835. It’s set in stone, in my opinion. There are still a couple of key resistance levels on the S&P 500 that we’ll have to deal with next week. The first will be the early-April rebound attempt that failed near 5700. Today’s intraday high was 5700. The next one, however, will be the biggest on the chart and that’s where we last failed in late March – at 5782.

NASDAQ 100:

Looks similar to the S&P 500, but I did add the RSI to this chart. During downtrends, RSI 60 tends to be rather big resistance. We see many rallies fail at or near that level. The NDX just crossed RSI 60….barely. At our Friday intraday high, the NASDAQ 100 pulled within 100 points (less than 0.5%) of the late-March high near 20250. I don’t know if we turn here or not, but I do know the risks are elevated.

Russell 2000:

The 197 level offered great price support on multiple occasions, so when we see a heavy-volume breakdown like we saw in early April, we should recognize how important it is to clear that same price resistance on the way back up. We did so on Friday with gusto. I absolutely LOVE the sudden accumulation that’s taken place in the IWM. I believe that will result in a much larger move at some point later this year. But are we due for another round of selling first, perhaps at upcoming price resistance levels marked above? We’ll soon find out.

Be careful ahead, especially if a rising-volume, reversing candle prints on our major indices sometime next week.

Sentiment

Check out this 5-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE):

We just hit 0.55, showing the most complacency we’ve seen in the past 5 weeks or so. Extreme low readings have previously marked corrections and/or cyclical bear markets and that was one key topping indicator that I discussed back in January/February. Other prior moves down to 0.55 have also resulted in short-term tops. I thought the current .55 reading was worth pointing out for this reason.

Seasonality could also play a role. Early May (through the 5th) tends to provide historical tailwinds, but the middle part of May (6th through 25th) has a history of being rather challenging. The 5th is Monday, so given everything I’ve discussed above and knowing that our bullish seasonal window could soon be closing, watch for a potential reversing candle as a sign to think about reducing risk (covered calls, S&P 500 puts for insurance, moving to cash, etc.).

I’m not ready to definitively call a short-term top here, but I do want to point out that the SHORT-TERM risks of being long right now are growing. Do with that what you may.

If you’d like to follow more articles of mine, please CLICK HERE to join the tens of thousands who’ve already subscribed to our FREE EB Digest newsletter. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

We just wrapped up a busy week jam-packed with key economic data and big tech earnings. And we have some positive news: the market held up pretty well. May is off to a good start.

Strong earnings from META Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) gave the stock market a boost. Together, their strong performance helped the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) break above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

On Friday, the rally got an extra shot in the arm from a better-than-expected jobs report—177,000 jobs added vs. 135,000 expected. That helped fuel a market-wide rally, with all the major indexes ending the week in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closed up 1.46%, the S&P 500 ($SPX) up 1.42%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) up 1.41%.

A quick glance at the Equities panel (US Indexes tab) in the Market Summary page shows that the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, Russell 1000, and the Wilshire 5000 had nine consecutive up days. This is quite the reversal after trade war outcomes spooked investors. The weekly streak isn’t too shabby either, with many indexes displaying four consecutive up streaks. More indexes are now trading above their 50-day moving averages compared to a few days ago.

What Does This Mean Going Forward?

After a negative statistic in the Q1 GDP growth, the strong jobs report put recessionary fears in the rearview mirror. However, this also lowers the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the May FOMC meeting. And looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in June has dropped to 36.4%, so it may be July before we see a rate cut. But this scenario could change between now and June.

Does this week’s price action mean the equity market is reversing? One thing is clear: The situation is much more positive than it was three weeks ago. But to get an objective view, it’s best to focus on the charts.

The Technical PoV

The daily chart of $SPX below shows that Friday’s close basically wipes out the “post Liberation Day” losses. Essentially, all the volatile action that took place in the last month was an emotional reaction to the uncertainty that investors were battling against. It was an emotional roller coaster. Now that the S&P 500 is back to the high of April 2, does it mean things have returned to business as usual?

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The index closed at around the same level it did on Liberation Day. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Seasonally, May is a good month in the stock market, as are June and July. You can see this in the seasonality chart of the S&P 500. The data supports some of the price action we’re seeing, especially among sectors and industry groups.

Sector Snapshot

All 11 S&P sectors closed in the green on Friday. For the week, Industrials, Technology, and Financials were the leading sectors. It’s interesting to note that Friday’s leading sector, Financials, is showing signs of recovery after the April fall. The daily chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) shows the ETF trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Its relative strength index (RSI) is also rising.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLF. The ETF broke above its 50-day moving average and its relative strength is also rising. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Of the three, the Technology sector is technically the weakest. It’s trading below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA is below its 200-day SMA. To see strength return to the broader market, the Technology sector needs show technical strength.

The Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMP) is at 46.52. It showed a reversal from a level just above 20 and crossed above 30, indicating a bull alert. A cross above 50 would be a favorable bull signal.

FIGURE 3. NASDAQ COMPOSITE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX. After a sharp reversal from above 20, $BPCOMPQ crossed above the 30 level and is approaching the 50 level. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Keep an eye on this chart, since a break above 50 could be an early signal of improving breadth in the Nasdaq Composite.

At the Close

While the stock market’s price action seems to have regained some of its momentum, there needs to be more confirmation to suggest a trend reversal. Keep an eye on the charts of the broader indexes, sectors, and the BPIs. Look for technical indicators to confirm the rally’s strength and keep an eye on interest rate expectations.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

S&P 500 up 2.92% on the week, at 5686.67, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 3.0% on the week at 41,317.43; Nasdaq Composite up 3.42% on the week at 17,977.73.$VIX down 8.86% on the week, closing at 22.64.Best performing sector for the week: IndustrialsWorst performing sector for the week: EnergyTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Duolingo Inc. (DUOL); Summit Therapeutics PLC (SMMT); MicroStrategy (MSTR); Roblox Corp (RBLX)

On the Radar Next Week

Earnings season continues with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO), Ford (F), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and several others reporting.ISM Services PMIFed Interest Rate Decision/Press ConferenceFed speeches from Kugler, Goolsbee, Waller, Williams, and others on Friday

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

When you’re lost in the woods, you reach for a compass to find true north. In the markets, it’s not so simple, as the landscape is always shifting. If there is a “true north” in this terrain, it might be better understood as a characteristic—strength and momentum over time, rather than a single stock or sector.

With sentiment muddled and signals mixed, how do you cut through near-term noise and find the “true north” in a shifting market landscape? This is where StockCharts’ MarketCarpets comes in. You can think of it as a visual compass that can help you reorient and recalibrate.

What MarketCarpets is Saying Now

All MarketCarpets readings use the five-day setting, since shorter time frames are particularly susceptible to noise in the current context.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS S&P VIEW. Lots of green, but I want to see a reduction.

On Thursday morning, there were more bullish greens than bearish reds. They represent S&P 500 stocks performing better relative to others—specifically from a ‘long only’ (bullish) perspective. But what do those greens have in common?

The answer is that most, if not all, are Information Technology sector funds.

Technology Sector Leads the Charge in S&P 500

If you select the S&P Sector ETFs group, Technology is the strongest among all 11 S&P sectors.

FIGURE 2. MARKETCARPETS SECTORS. Technology is far ahead of most other sectors, which read bullish.

If you follow financial news, you’re probably well aware of how certain tech companies are performing, especially in light of the current earnings season.

But not every investor wants to risk allocating capital toward individual stocks, given the volatility of today’s geopolitical environment, where news on a given day can cause markets to soar or slump. So, conservative investors, particularly those in or nearing retirement, might want to opt for a sector ETF instead, like the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK).

Why is technology outperforming?

Six Reasons Tech Stocks are Outperforming in 2025

Here’s a quick breakdown of what’s going on:

AI and cloud boom. Enterprise-focused giants are thriving due to surging AI demand.Earnings confidence. Big tech’s strong earnings are keeping investor sentiment positive despite market volatility.Tariff mitigation. Tech companies are proactively shifting supply chains to soften tariff impact.Tariff relief. Temporary exemptions on key tech products give hardware makers a short-term boost.Long-term innovation appeal. Investors see AI, chips, and automation as long-term growth drivers.Stable revenue streams. Tech firms with enterprise and software services offer more stability than consumer-driven sectors.

Technology Sector Overbought? Market Breadth Says Maybe

That’s a lot of fundamental talk, but what does the technical picture look like? Let’s start by analyzing market breadth with the S&P Technology Sector Bullish Percent Index ($BPINFO) chart.

FIGURE 3. TECH SECTOR BPI. Most tech stocks in the sector are ultra-bullish, but that can also signal overbought conditions.

The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is at 85, meaning 85% of all stocks within the sector are triggering Point & Figure Buy Signals. Above 50% is bullish, but above 70%, let alone 85%, XLK is straddling ultra-bullish to overbought.

If you look at the magenta rectangle, you can see where XLK’s trend is situated—at the point of recovery following a two-month tumble. However, it’s still below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and, as the saying goes, nothing good happens below the 200.

XLK’s Price and Volume Action: A Closer Look

Let’s zoom in on a daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF XLK. It broke above resistance, but can it sustain upward momentum?

XLK’s recovery effort gained momentum with a notable gap up on Thursday. Positive momentum is reinforced by a rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 50 level, suggesting XLK still has room to run.

From a volume perspective, the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is trending higher, signaling increased buying pressure. A 20-day SMA is overlaid to show how OBV is performing relative to its average. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), hovering flat near the zero line (see blue circle), indicates accumulation with hesitation.

Key Support Levels to Watch If You’re Bullish on XLK

If you’re considering a long position in XLK, keep an eye on these key technical levels:

Initial Support – $205. The breakout level around $205 (marked by the blue dotted line) should act as the first line of support on any pullback.Secondary Support Zone – $185 to $187.50. If $205 fails, the yellow-shaded zone becomes the next support range. But note: if price falls here, the $205 breakout level may flip into resistance.Critical Support – $172.50. A drop toward $172.50 could signal deeper technical weakness. That’s why the area is shaded red—to underscore its importance.

In each case, monitor the CMF for confirmation. A rising CMF, especially in the first two support zones, would suggest continued buying pressure—a bullish signal. Conversely, if CMF dips below the zero line, it would signal growing selling pressure, reinforcing a more bearish outlook.

At the Close

The tech sector is leading the charge, but you have to estimate whether momentum is real or just generating noise. MarketCarpets works like a compass, helping you visually navigate market conditions and spot patterns. Pair it with tools like RSI, OBV, CMF, or any other preferred tool in your analytical toolbox to create well-defined setups and exits. In a market environment driven by sentiment, headlines, fear, and FOMO, having a solid technical foundation is more important than ever.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Discover the top 10 stock charts to watch this month with Grayson Roze and David Keller, CMT. They break down breakout strategies, moving average setups, and technical analysis strategies using relative strength, momentum, and trend-following indicators. This analysis covers key market trends that could impact your trading decisions. You don’t want to miss these insights into market dynamics and chart patterns that could impact your trading decisions.

This video originally premiered on May 1, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

In this video, Joe demonstrates how to use the 18-day and 40-day moving averages to identify trade entry points, assess trend direction, and measure momentum. He breaks down four key ways these MAs can guide your trading decisions—especially knowing when to be a buyer. Joe also analyzes commodities, noting recent weakness, and highlights key technical levels to watch on the SPY, QQQ, and IWM. The session wraps with detailed viewer stock chart requests.

The video premiered on April 30, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

In this video, Julius analyzes current asset class rotation, revealing why stocks in the lagging quadrant may signal continued market weakness. By combining sector rotation trends—particularly strength in defensive sectors—with SPY seasonality, Julius builds a compelling case that downside risk in the S&P 500 may outweigh upside potential in the current environment.

This video was originally published on April 30, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

Thursday’s market rout, triggered by the grim arithmetic of a negative first-quarter GDP, hardly provides fertile ground for a ‘risk-on’ appetite. Yet some stocks continue to defy the mood, climbing despite the volatility and uncertainty weighing on investor sentiment.

One such stock is Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR), which has consistently ranked in or near the Top 10 Large Cap stocks on the StockCharts Technical Rank  (SCTR) report since late 2024.

FIGURE 1. PLTR IN TOP POSITION. PLTR stock has been at or within the top 10 since late September 2024.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is a software company that helps governments and businesses analyze and act on big data. It blends human decision-making with AI, making it a go-to for national security, defense, and enterprise operations.

Why Palantir May Be Tariff-Proof

Unlike typical analytics tools, Palantir combines human insight with AI, so people stay in control while getting help from powerful machines. That balance has made it a trusted choice for just about everything from national security to big business.

So, how does Palantir fit into today’s tariff environment? Here are a few key points:

Tariff-Proof Tech. Since Palantir sells software, not physical goods, it’s mostly insulated from tariffs and global supply chain drama.Stable Government Money. Over half of its revenue comes from government contracts, and most of it is from the U.S., offering a steady income stream even when markets get rocky.Budget Watch. If the government tightens its belt, especially through efficiency initiatives (think DOGE), Palantir’s federal dollars could take a hit.

Looking ahead, analysts generally see strong growth for the company in governmental and commercial sectors.

PLTR Stock’s Weekly Chart: A Long-Term Perspective

Let’s take a long-term view of PLTR’s price action, starting with the weekly chart.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF PLTR STOCK. The stock is attempting to test its all-time high of $125.41.

This chart highlights PLTR’s dramatic climb from its 2022 slump to a parabolic uptrend, followed by a sharp pullback in 2025. The blue rectangles mark three early bullish signals—sustained SCTR readings above the 90 line. A well-timed buy setup based on those signals could have helped you catch the uptrend early.

Now, though, PLTR is trying to claw back the 99% gain it notched earlier in 2025. While analysts—and seemingly investors—remain bullish on PLTR’s long-term outlook, its stretched valuation and the broader market’s volatility make the risks impossible to ignore.

PLTR Stock’s Daily Chart: Rangebound or Poised for a Breakout?

Shifting over to a daily chart, after reaching $125 per share in February, PLTR plummeted due to defense budget cut fears, insider selling, and overvaluation concerns. But then in April, after hitting a low of $66.12, PLTR rallied strongly on easing trade tensions, new government deals, and renewed AI optimism.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF PLTR. Note the sharp decline in February and rally in April. What happened?

Year-to-date, PLTR stock’s intermediate-term trend remains unclear. On one hand, the wide range between its 2025 high and low suggests the stock may stay rangebound until a clear direction emerges. On the other hand, it’s hard to envision PLTR breaking above its recent high without a meaningful pullback first.

Momentum and volume indicators offer tempered, yet optimistic signals. The Relative Strength Index  (RSI) is approaching the 70 level, hinting at overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) sits well above the current price, suggesting that sustained buying pressure could eventually push PLTR back toward all-time highs.

The Ichimoku Cloud, which helps visualize potential support and trend structure, points to a possible support zone around the $90 range. Lastly, the blue dotted line at $66 marks a key swing low—if PLTR closes below that level, it could spell trouble for the stock’s broader uptrend.

At the Close: Should You Buy Palantir Stock?

Well, everyone seems to be buying it, considering its 613.86 PE ratio, which, though indicating strong growth expectations, can also signal market euphoria—and that’s where caution comes in. If you’re planning to go long, it might be wise to wait for a pullback toward the support zone highlighted by the Ichimoku Cloud.

Also, keep an eye on its earnings date—May 5—which you can find in StockCharts’ Earnings Calendar. Political and geopolitical shifts are just as critical, having shaken markets throughout April and being likely to keep doing so.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Grow your trading account using proven options strategies, right from your StockCharts ChartLists, with the help of this powerful educational webinar!

In this session, Tony Zhang, Chief Strategist of OptionsPlay, will show you how to:

Scan your ChartLists for top-performing trade setupsIdentify income-generating and directional opportunitiesUse OptionPlay’s real-time Strategy Explorer to rank and compare tradesAlign technical analysis with the best options strategies—covered calls, credit spreads, and short puts—for smarter, more confident trades

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This video premiered on April 29, 2025.

Speaking overall, the stock market hasn’t changed course after last week’s bounce; the upside momentum is still here, albeit acting a little tentative. One piece of news that may have helped move the market higher on Tuesday, though, was President Trump’s decision to scale back on auto tariffs.

Investors seem to be looking forward to any news of progress on trade negotiations and key economic data, namely Q1 GDP, March personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), and the April jobs report. There are also some important earnings this week, including META Platforms, Inc. (META), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), and Apple, Inc. (AAPL), among others. So, don’t be surprised if there’s some turbulence this week.

Recent economic data hasn’t moved the needle much. The latest JOLTS report showed fewer job openings in March, but layoffs declined. This indicates the labor market is still strong. The April nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will bring more clarity.

Consumer confidence took a hit, falling to its lowest reading since May 2020. This drop reflects concerns about tariffs and how they might push up prices. The bottom line is that consumers are nervous about what’s ahead.

Technical Update

Despite its bounce, the S&P 500 ($SPX) is still down around 9.0% from its February high, but up about 15% from its April lows. The weekly chart below has the Fibonacci retracement levels from the October 2022 lows to the February 2025 highs. The index bounced off its 50% retracement level and is now above its 38.2% level. It’s also trading below its 40-week simple moving average (SMA), which is the equivalent of a 200-day SMA.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART ANALYSIS OF S&P 500. The index has bounced off its 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and breadth is improving. However, the market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode, and any negative news could send the index lower. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It’s encouraging to see the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (BPI) above 50%, and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average showing slight signs of reversing from a downtrend. However, the S&P 500 appears indecisive and is waiting for some catalyst to move the index in either direction.

Does the daily chart show a different scenario? Let’s take a look.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART ANALYSIS OF S&P 500. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level is an important level to monitor since it could act as a support level. Resistance levels to the upside are the 50-day moving average, the 61.8% Fib retracement level, and the 200-day moving average. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 above shows the index trading below its 200-day SMA. In addition, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (from the February 2025 high to the April 2025 low) is acting as a support level. One point to note is the wide-ranging days in April, which have subsided toward the end of the month. This suggests investors have calmed down—the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) has pulled back and is now below 30.

The short-term perspective shows the trend is leaning toward moving higher. Keep an eye on the 5500 level as support and the 50-day SMA as the next resistance level. If the S&P 500 can break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level with strong momentum, that’s reason to be optimistic. A break above the 200-day SMA would be more optimistic.

While the S&P 500 is inching higher, something is brewing beneath the surface—a shift toward the more defensive sectors.

Sector Rotation: Defensive Gains

The Relative Rotation Graph below shows that for the week, defensive sectors—Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Health Care—are leading, while offensive sectors, like Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services, are lagging.

FIGURE 3. RELATIVE ROTATION GRAPH. Defensive sectors are leading while offensive sectors are lagging. Monitor sector rotation carefully as we head into a volatile trading week. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

This isn’t unusual, since investors are feeling more cautious and looking for stability.

What’s Ahead?

There’s still key economic data to monitor this week. Here’s what’s ahead:

Wednesday: March personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s favored inflation measure. A stronger-than-expected number could send the market lower since it may make the Fed more hawkish. There’s also the Q1 GDP growth, which will indicate if economic growth is stalling or continues to be strong.Friday: April nonfarm payrolls will give us an idea of the strength of the labor market. Evidence of a strengthening labor market would reduce the probability of an interest rate cut, which could put pressure on stocks.

Closing Position

The market is feeling cautious, waiting for the next catalyst to send stock prices higher or lower. And any of this week’s events—economic data, big tech earnings, and trade talks—could make or break this week’s price action. However, even if the S&P 500 trends higher, it doesn’t necessarily mean the big tech growth stocks are leading the move higher. Do a sector drill-down from our new Market Summary page and invest accordingly.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

If you’ve been exploring ways to take your options trading to the next level, the OptionsPlay Add-On for StockCharts is the single most impactful upgrade you can make. And now, it’s even better.

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