Britain’s economy delivered a rare piece of good news this morning, with the Office for National Statistics reporting that GDP expanded by 0.3 per cent in March, comfortably ahead of City forecasts and capping a first-quarter growth rate of 0.6 per cent.
The figures, the last to capture activity before the outbreak of the Iran war began rattling global markets, point to a services-led upswing that has handed the Chancellor a brief reprieve as she braces for what most economists agree will be a far bleaker summer.
According to the ONS, the services sector, still the engine room of the British economy, grew by 0.8 per cent over the quarter, with production nudging up 0.2 per cent and construction rising 0.4 per cent. Wholesale, computer programming and advertising were the standout performers.
“Growth picked up in the first quarter of the year, led by broad-based increases across the services sector,” said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS. “Within that, wholesale, computer programming and advertising performed particularly well.”
For the country’s 5.5 million small and medium-sized enterprises, however, the headline number masks a far more uncomfortable reality. The March print captures only the opening days of the conflict; April and May data, when they land, are expected to reveal the full cost of the disruption ripping through the Strait of Hormuz and into global supply chains.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves seized on the figures to defend her fiscal strategy, telling reporters that “now is not the time to put our economic stability at risk”.
“Today’s figures show the government has the right economic plan,” Reeves said. “The choices I have made as Chancellor mean our economy is in a stronger position as we deal with the costs of the war in Iran. This government is getting on with the job of building an economy that is stronger, more resilient, and prepared for the future.”
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride was quick to puncture the mood, arguing that “the chaos surrounding the Labour leadership is destabilising Britain’s economy”. His intervention reflects mounting nerves in Westminster, where Sir Keir Starmer is fighting to hold his position amid backbench unrest.
Forecasters have already sharpened their pencils. Capital Economics has slashed its 2026 UK growth projection, with deputy chief UK economist Ruth Gregory warning that “prolonged political instability” represents “an extra downside risk” to her outlook.
“We would be very surprised if growth doesn’t weaken from May as the temporary boost from stockpiling unwinds and the squeeze on households’ real incomes from higher energy prices intensifies,” Gregory said. “In our adverse scenario, the economy suffers a mild recession. So the economy will probably give whoever is Prime Minister a rough ride.”
The energy picture is doing most of the damage. Brent crude has surged by roughly 50 per cent since March on fears of sustained supply disruption, and as a net energy importer Britain is more exposed than most of its G7 peers. Higher import costs are expected to filter rapidly into inflation, while weakening global demand threatens to weigh on the export book just as Britain’s manufacturers had begun to find their feet.
For SME owners, the practical consequences are already taking shape. Survey data shows consumer confidence has fallen sharply since the conflict began, and business investment, which had been showing tentative signs of recovery, is widely expected to stall as boardrooms wait for clarity on energy costs, interest rates and political direction.
The Treasury is understood to be poring over the latest figures ahead of an energy support package for businesses and households, with smaller firms in energy-intensive sectors lobbying hard for targeted relief.
Compounding the uncertainty, Reeves herself is reportedly weighing whether she could remain in her current role under a new Labour leader should Sir Keir be forced out. Bond traders are already pricing in a leftward shift, with gilt yields reflecting expectations that fiscal rules could be loosened and the current government’s growth policies quietly shelved.
For now, Sir Keir has dug in. Following Tuesday’s King’s Speech, in which he promised to “tear down” the status quo and pursue a “radical agenda”, the Prime Minister has cited the war as reason enough to remain at the helm. Whether anxious backbenchers, and equally anxious business owners, will share that assessment over the coming weeks remains very much an open question.
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UK economy defies gloom with surprise March growth as Iran war clouds outlook